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BigBrown's time - any math whizzes here?   Horse Racing

Started by SmittyCat3; 185 views.
SmittyCat3

From: SmittyCat3

5/5/08

I'm hearing all over the media that Big Brown's win was no big deal and that he was up against a field of losers.

But his time was 2.01.82.

That's faster than Street Sense (2.0.17) , who didn't come from the 20 post, it's faster than Giacomo and Smarty Jones. I't WAY behind first triple crown winners Sir Barton (2.09.80). Gallant Fox. Omaha, and it's even faster than War Admiral, Count Fleet, Assault, Citation and Seattle Slew

The only triple crown winners who ran the derby faster than Big Brown were Secretariat, (1.59.40) Affirmed (2.01.20) and Whirlaway (2.01.40) ...but not by much (by the way, Barbaro's time was 2.01.36)

So here's the math question. When you consider that BB came from the outside position, how much further did he have to run and what would his time have been had he not drawn the outside post?

PS> I got these times off Wikipedia so if they're not accurate, I apologize.

SmittyCat3

From: SmittyCat3

5/5/08

errata - Street sense was 2.02.17
prudery

From: prudery

5/5/08

I would say the outside post was not that relevant, as the horse did not stay 20 wide for the whole race .... It was a good time---Beyer gave him a 109 ...
Guest

From: Guest

5/5/08

Given how quickly Big Brown got to the front of the pack before the first turn, I, too, would say that post position was irrelevant at least in this case.  The jockey is pretty much responsible for this type of a move and Kent did a great job.  Other than rate the colt through the back side with Big Brown asking to run, he pretty much had the job done by the first turn.   As long as he didn't fall off, he was home...of course he did fall off after the race was over, but that doesn't count.  Someone indicated that the colt shied a big at the goings on with 8 Belles....I wonder if they know somehow....

Peg

  • Edited 5/5/2008 4:39 pm ET by Peggr
In reply toRe: msg 4
SmittyCat3

From: SmittyCat3

5/5/08

Thanks for your feedback. Yes that is fast.

I don't understand why they're giving him such bad press.

Msg 6 of 27 to GuestGuest 
In reply toRe: msg 4
prudery

From: prudery

5/5/08

I think Big Brown sensed something in all the commotion at the very least ... And if he saw her on the ground, also at least, recognized that something was not normal ... That I am sure of...

He and Kent did a wonderful job, sadly overshadowed by this tragedy ...

In reply toRe: msg 1
Guest

From: Guest

5/5/08

Big Brown had no one to push him.  He wasn't even fully extended.  He just galloped most of the way, in the 6 wide path.  While not 20 wide, 6 wide definitely has farther to go than...say...Street Sense, who did it all on the rail.

Apparently, there's another method of counting the time based on the wider trip.  I can't remember the name of it, but it starts with an R.  I should have written it down when I heard it, so I could look it up.  Sieve for brains, here!

2ottbs

From: 2ottbs

5/5/08

gotta say I was impressed with Desormaux's ability to leap back up onto Big Brown without assistance, the guy's an athlete for sure! :)

 

In reply toRe: msg 8
Guest

From: Guest

5/5/08

I thought that was quite athletic of him too. Probably all that adrenalin running! Big Brown was my choice to win the Derby. I am sure he felt something when Belles went down.:(
Msg 10 of 27 to GuestGuest 
In reply toRe: msg 7
godmom2

From: godmom2

5/5/08

Ragozin figures take the trip into consideration (total ground covered) as well as how the fields were playing that day, condition of the track, wind direction and velocity.

I believe a Ragozin sheet costs $20 or something like that, so most stick to Beyer speed figures which come with the DRF.

I read on another post, that if one were to adjust the Beyer for the extra lengths that BB had to make up, breaking from the 20-hole, it might move his Beyer up to 114 or so.  I'll try to find the post.

109 is par for the Derby.

There are also Thorograph numbers, which also take many factors into consideration.

People are estimating that Big Browns Ragozins and TG numbers will be closer to Ghotszapper type numbers, and better than Street Sense's numbers, since SS got a rail trip and didn't have to go wide.

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