Brexit: What would a no-deal look like for Britain?

With cabinet ministers resigning in the fallout of her draft Brexit deal, British Prime Minister Theresa May is battling for political survival.

Hostility to her draft agreement could see it rejected by Parliament, potentially casting the UK out of the EU without a safety net in a "no-deal" Brexit.

But what would a no-deal Brexit look like for Britain?

Medicine supply under scrutiny

Pharmaceutical companies and the National Health Service (NHS) said they were stockpiling medicines in Britain to prepare for supply disruptions.

Photo: Protesters rally against the possible stockpiling of medicines in the event of a no-deal Brexit. (Reuters: Peter Nicholls)

UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock has expressed concerns over the flow of medicine into Britain following a potential no-deal Brexit.

According to The Times, Mr Hancock reportedly told cabinet he could not guarantee people would not die as a result.

He later told UK radio station LBC that he remained confident of medicine supply.

"Now if everybody does the things that they needed to do, including us in government but also the pharmaceutical industry, then I'm confident that we can deliver that," he said.

"But there's a lot of work that needs to happen to ensure that we have that unhindered supply of medicine."

Watch out for the carpark to Dover

Maritime UK — the organisation representing Britain's shipping industry and ports — warned that Dover could face permanent traffic jams stretching for kilometres out from the port, which takes in millions of trucks a year.

Photo: Martime UK fears truck drivers could be stuck on roads to Dover for up to two days. (Reuters: Neil Hall)

The organisation's chairman David Dingle said truck drivers could be stuck on roads to Dover for up to two days if there was no deal.

The potential delays would not just affect food supply — a huge portion of the UK's food comes from continental Europe — but also owners of Japanese cars, with manufacturers relying on quick delivery of parts.

Already work has begun on the M26 motorway, with a 21km stretch of road earmarked as a holding park for thousands of trucks.

Truck drivers on the Kent motorway would be diverted between 10:00pm and 5:00am, which would double the length of their journey.

Continued

Food could rot, prices could rise

The long wait on the roads for trucks could see food stocks rotting in storage.

Photo: Outgoing Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab suggested grocery chains stockpile food in anticipation of a no-deal. (AP: Sang Tan)

A no-deal would see existing regulations vanish, and with no more free trade with the EU, goods flowing in and out of Britain would need to be tracked.

The resulting spoiled food would see diminished choice and higher prices for the British consumer.

Outgoing Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab said there would be "adequate food" if grocery stores stockpiled, but quickly drew the ire of critics who said there was no space to implement this plan.

Ireland's economy could suffer amid hard border

Ireland's Government said it would not countenance a return to a hard border on the Emerald Isle under any circumstances, but a no-deal Brexit might very well make that unavoidable.

Photo: A hard Irish border would spell political and economic difficulties for the Republic of Ireland. (Reuters: Clodagh Kilcoyne)

With the United Kingdom — including Northern Ireland — leaving the EU and assuming World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules, the Republic of Ireland may have little choice but to reimpose a border, conducting checks on goods entering the EU market to control smuggling.

It is one of the most contentious issues surrounding any deal struck over the UK's withdrawal, with potentially tens of thousands of jobs on the line in Ireland and the country's Department of Finance calculating a no-deal Brexit could lower Ireland's GDP by 4.5 per cent in 10 years' time.

The sensitivities over the Irish border remain, with Northern Ireland's ruling DUP party insisting it must not become a catalyst for illegal activity nor an incentive for those wishing to undermine the peace process.

Good luck getting out of Heathrow

A no-deal would see Britain suddenly booted from a large swathe of regulatory agencies, and it would need to replace them with some domestic alternatives quick smart.

Photo: British pilots' licences would no longer be recognised by the EU. (AP: Frank Augstein)

This would impact a host of industries, including the pharmaceutical industry, but would also have implications for aviation.

If the UK left the EU without reaching a deal, Europe would not recognise licences and certificates issued by Britain's Civil Aviation Authority.

There would need to be comprehensive contingency planning to avoid the sight of planes being grounded at Heathrow Airport, stranding incoming and outgoing passengers.

While the UK has WTO laws to fall back on when it departs the EU, there is no such equivalent for aviation regulations, with British pilots potentially having to seek out second licences from another EU state.

It would also potentially prevent aviation parts made by UK companies being put on EU planes.

So far this year 1600 Brits living in France have gotten French citizenship. 5 x the amount of 2 years ago, and there are queues.

Spain just announced it may not approve the suggested Brexit deal because of Gibraltar, and that in the future this subject must be discussed with Spain alone and not in Brussels.

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-12-04/may-loses-power-over-brexit-endgame-in-war-with-u-k-parliament

Fake news!

We are on course for organised chaos as we have always been!

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Yes Minister explains the EEC (EU)

From Series 2 Episode 5 "The Devil you know" Sir Humphrey and Jim Hacker discuss Brussels and why European nations joined the common market.

Brits stockpiling food and medicine ahead of Brexit

In a small owner-run supermarket in south-west London, Jo Elgarf walks down an aisle full of long-life food.

Cans of hot dogs, stew, rice pudding. Packets of lentils, cartons of milk. It is all here.

"They have a really long life on them and are easy to store," she explains, pointing out that two cans of baked beans can be purchased for less than 2 pounds and will last until the end of 2020.

"At the moment I tend to buy two for myself now and two for later on."

A mother of three, including four-year-old Nora who is severely disabled, Ms Elgarf insists she is not an American-style prepper. Her kitchen cupboards are full to overflowing, but there is no hidden food under the stairs or in the garage, and no bunker in her backyard.

But the fear of what Brexit may bring has her worried and she wants to make sure she can feed her family if food supplies are impacted by a potential no-deal Brexit scenario.

Ms Elgarf is a member of the 2,500-strong Facebook group 48% Preppers, named after the 48 per cent of people who voted to remain in the 2016 referendum.

"It is actually becoming more and more common that people are suddenly waking up, looking in cupboards and saying, 'I don't think I have enough food to do more than a couple of days'," she says.

"And the closer we get to a no-deal, a few are very anxious."

It sounds like a doomsday approach, but across the United Kingdom some supermarkets chains have begun to stockpile in case no deal can be done and Britain crashes out of its union with Europe on March 29, 2019.

And there are warnings a hard Brexit could cause major disruptions at UK ports and borders.

"If we don't have the ships coming through quite so quickly and shelves aren't being replenished quite so quickly, I'm ready for that," Ms Elgarf says.

Another getting ready for the unknown is former British Army officer Guy Dorrell, who will have enough supplies in his Surrey home for between 14 and 21 days after the transition date.

"I've resisted calling it prepping or survivalist stuff — but preparedness and being aware of what you need to have and the supplies you need in," he says.

Mr Dorrell also co-hosts a podcast called The Fall, which is billed as "a brutal guide to surviving Brexit" and deals with everything from a delay in Amazon orders to food and fuel shortages.

"We've always said that public disorder is highly likely, whatever happens," he says.

"So if we get food shortages or fuel shortages then, as we've seen across the [English] Channel in France, then public disorder is highly likely, and that would happen within days."

For Ms Elgarf, the most important thing is the supply of her daughter's medicine. Nora has cerebral palsy and the drugs she takes for severe epilepsy comes from the EU and cannot be stored long-term.

"Those meds come from Europe, and I have no way of stockpiling them," she says.

"Nobody can say to me, 'Yes, don't worry, we've got those meds'."

In July the British Government asked drug companies to stockpile six weeks' worth of medicines to prevent any shortfall even if the supply chain is affected.

Every month the UK imports nearly 40 million packets of medicine from the EU, and even more is exported out of the country.

"We are working very closely with our patients to help and give advice on the best ways to deal with any shortages there are," says Ash Soni, President of the Royal Pharmaceuticals Society.

"I can understand why people will be nervous, nervousness comes from being uncertain, we are all uncertain."

While the Government has published Brexit guidance on the issue, Ms Elgarf feels there is still a lack of clarity for her family.

"I just wish someone would take control, I just feel like we are just floating along as a country."