schnuersi said:

concidering that the vast majority are women

Not unprecedented to have women work assembly in defense production in a crisis:

Children could also be directed toward apprentice programs when they come of age.

gatnerd said:

Not unprecedented to have women work assembly in defense production in a crisis:

True but what you see on the picture is not how the modern defense industrie works or even how modern assebly lines look.
The pictures of the article you posted of KMWs Munich plant give you a far better impression how AFV assembly looks nowadays.

There also is a significant reluctance of women to work in STEM and especially the blue collar end of the spectrum.
I am affraid the days of Rosie the Riveter are long gone.

The rather simple labour that can be quickly learned is mostly done by machines nowadays. Besides there really is no shortage of unskilled labour in Germany. Really there is plenty of that. Its just not needed anymore. What are needed are trained and experienced specialists. Like the mentioned welders. It takes at least three years to train a welder so he or she gets his or her apprenticeship and is considered skilled. After that all the aditional training for the certificates to be allowed to weld armor will take at least another two years. The wash out rate is high. In the 50 % range.
Its comparable with mechanics, technicians and machinists. Takes years to get the to the level the defense or aerospace industry needs. Its the same with automotive BTW. The sad truth is few young people with low education have what it takes to succeed in these fields. They are missing the simple basics. Like discipline and motivation. This is why they fail their initial aprrenticeships at massive rates. So massive few companies even bother hiring them and start training them anymore. The youngsters with better education that actually bring discipline and motivation in additon do not want to work in blue collar jobs and are off to the university. Nowadays there is only a very small group of a given cohort that makes it into the skilled labour category. Most either remain unskilled or have higher education. So the competition for getting the skilled labour is high.

gatnerd said:

Children could also be directed toward apprentice programs when they come of age.

As mentioned above plus: It is not that there are no programs to bring new people into the workforce and to support and encurage you people to become skilled labourers. Its just that these programs all are ineffective. Because the people in charge ignore the facts of the modern reality. It used to be the way that there are three levels of school. The easiest for was a basic education. You could graduate after 10 years of attendance or not. People on this level would get low or unskilled jobs. Then there was the middle level with required a graduation after 10 successfully graduated years. These people used to be the vast majority and became skilled labour. The education actually aimed at putting the graduating students right into an apprenticeship at the age of 16. The highest level trained people for higher education and required a graduation after 13 successfully graduated year. The percentages used to be in the 20%-60%-20% range. This is the basic foundation of the German system. But nowadays the middle level has effectively completly disappeared and as a result the low level and high level have vastly inflated. To an allmost 50%-0-50% ratio. The 50 % on the low end are barely qualified and even if they are on paper they lack in soft skills. The graduates of the high level are overqualified and do not want to do blue collar work. This is why all steering and planing falls short. The current realities are complelty different to the way it should be, which is used as a base for planing.

In addition currently it is assumed that the Ukrainian refugees will return soon. So there are no long term plans for them.

Still with meatgrinder forends ?

https://twitter.com/DGA/status/1521441867178688512?t=e_Jtpp8cv4ZtfihbZmmKTg&s=19

*Ukrainan refugees will not be going back to Ukraine in big numbers, just look at much of eastern Europe , depopulating fast, folks moved west as soon as they could some countries have well over 20% drop in population since 1991 , 

schnuersi said:

There also is a significant reluctance of women to work in STEM and especially the blue collar end of the spectrum.

Nope. There is a significant reluctance by men to allow women into STEM - gatekeeping is still very much in effect. And why would a woman expose themseves to constant abuse?

graylion said:

Nope. There is a significant reluctance by men to allow women into STEM - gatekeeping is still very much in effect.

My experience is completly different.
This might have been the case in the '70 and early '80 but not since then.
The partner of one of my good friend is an engineer (i don't know if she is a good one since i have not worked with her). Both my sisters hold a PhD. One in molecular biology the other in bio informatics. In the company I worked befor we had a trans gender female in the workshop, in the labteam we had a woman. The technical service team had two women. All long term employees. Well regarded by everyone. Even though the company deliberatly tried to hire women there simply where non intrested or available.
Currently everybody is happy if he gets any new coworkers at all. Regardless of gender, age, race, religion or what not. The important part is that they do their job well. They need to contribute to the performance of the team. Since the industry demands a lot and the standards of productivity is very high there is an acceptance problem for underperformers. Which often leads to women being washed out quickly. Since they are not used to be treated really equal and high demands being put on them. The ones that do fit in an do their jobs well are as well regarded as any other coworker.
When I was still working in the industry as a team leader I did threw several females from my team because they would not perform to the average standard. I did the same with men but none of the females made it and some men did. In several cases my team members complained about the new ones and demanded their removal. The thing is numbers are utterly ruthless. A new team member means increased performance numbers. If the new member doesn't deliver everybody else has to compensate. Resulting in more work for everyone. Which is a complete no go.
 

graylion said:

And why would a woman expose themseves to constant abuse?

Why should men? Yes blue collar jobs often are demanding. Often to the point of abuse. This is the way it is but they are the base of the economy. No production no money for anything.
IMHO the question is wich of these jobs can women actually do.

I am currently involved into the training of engineering students. A couple of them are female and in their late 20th. They all did blue collar work befor. The females are physically broken. To the point where they are unfit for their previous vacation. Mostly bone and back/spine issues. Which is why they are now trained to become engineers so they can do white collar work. I personally think that having an apprenticeship first and study engineering after that is a really good thing. Ruining your physical health certainly isn't. Same in the army. I have seen female soldiers in combat units ruing their physical health in record time.

What I have wittnessed several times in the recent past is more or less the opposit of what you claim. Females are so much favoured and pampered that they get rejected and disliked for it. They have special rules, special conditions, special rights but less responsibility. They are not held to the same standard. Wich IMHO is appaling. Its the opposit of equality and all flak that gets thrown into their face because of this is well deserved.

There are so many programs trying to get women into STEM for a long time now. All in vain. Its pretty obvious that the majority of females simply are not intrested. Even in super equal countries like Sweden and Norway the number of females in STEM fields is much lower than men.

Friend of mine was an activist in the CCC, founded the Haecksen. In a CCC lab she got told "go away and menstruate". And that was this side of the millennium. Things have not changed all that much.

graylion said:

Friend of mine was an activist in the CCC, founded the Haecksen.

Yeaaa... ok... IT... these guys are often really special. The members of CCC are even more special than average IT. Normal men often don't like them. Of the CCC members I met I don't remember liking any or even taking them serious.
BTW my sister who has a degree in bio informatics is a CCC member. She dislikes most of the other members as well. Allthough not because they are sexist but because they are unpleasent people.
But IT is not all of STEM. Its only one part. Its also not really blue collar.

graylion said:

In a CCC lab she got told "go away and menstruate"

Out of context that indeed sounds bad. But I would ask why, what the trigger. Just the fact that she entered the room? Or did she do or say something? Was there an argument?
Out of context a lot of things sound sexist, racist or whatever.

graylion said:

And that was this side of the millennium. Things have not changed all that much.

I have not witnessed such things the other side of the millennium. Not even in the army and the tone and the manners there have been pretty rough.

If this still exists in Europe I feel bad for you guys.

I know in the US the experience has mostly been tilted more towards what schnuersi describes though where the women wash out in spite of the men who wind up working with them having given up on "true equality" a long time ago, (true equality as in we expect just as much out of you as we would a male team mate) fear for their jobs and more endless meetings, and thus try to help carry the workload of new female coworkers which is somehow still not enough.

Schnuersi brings up a good point that is going to become a real issue if the west ever actually does try to ramp up production to meet the true level of need we're seeing.

It's debatable to outright not possible for us to ramp up certain things at all when every year we're actually losing capability and have been for quite some time now.

As an American I can't help but feel like this is wildly suboptimal considering china has penciled in a war with my country in the 2030-2035 time frame, sent us our save this date RSVP cards, and a second note reminding us that we're getting a war around that time period whether we want one or not.

I'll be blunt and just come right out and say we all lied to ourselves/allowed ourselves to be lied to about the whole "end of history" thing and we appear to be heaping another lie to ourselves on top of that with this new "rules based international order" thing.

What concerns me, and I believe should concern other people is that apparently our people in business and politics have been lying to us and themselves so long they accidentally started believing it themselves and are making decisions from that mental reference frame while other parties in other nations are not making the same mistake.

It's not hard to see that this is coming back to bite us hard already and will only do so more and more going forward.

Sadly I don't have any brilliant solutions for how we shake ourselves from this stupor but it should be becoming obvious by now that the consequences if we don't will be very real and very unpleasant.

I kinda hope that people here who I have butted heads with in the past are now starting to see a little bit where I was coming from and why I seem so insistent about certain things.

I have no doubt that we can rise to the occasion and situation we find ourselves in however. The trick is we just need to put one foot in front of the other and start doing it 

roguetechie said:

the men who wind up working with them having given up on "true equality" a long time ago, (true equality as in we expect just as much out of you as we would a male team mate) fear for their jobs and more endless meetings, and thus try to help carry the workload of new female coworkers which is somehow still not enough.

My educated guess is, with the workforce and skilled labour problems the US have now as well this will change.
If you are part of a group that is in high demand but limited supply there is no need to be afraid for your job. This is a problem for people who are easy to replace.

I figured this out years ago. On average in the last two decades I changed the workplace every 5 years. Once I have been layed off. Every single time I got new employment within days and every time I did improve myself.
The last change is now a little more than two years past. My old employer still has not replaced me. The position is still vacant. I did warn them that this would happen during the last salary negotion, at the end of wich i gave them my letter of resignation because they would not meet my demands. The look in their faces... priceless.
I still get job offers on a regular base. Often from people who know me. Who worked with me, former customers and even former employers. But since I am now a civil servant and working for the MoD, which is sort of a dream job for me and the payment and extras are really, really good, I was not tempted... so far :D

I know that there are people who are cautios and affraid but this is not a good state to be in. Neither for the employee nor for the employer. Because the employers will only get mediocre workers with mediocre motivation and skills at best. But they will nod and smile and say yes all the time. For the employees it will lead to unhappyness and content.

I am allmost the other extreme. Never afraid and allways loud. I do say my opinion. Often even if not asked and I will not bend over or stand in for BS. If you piss me off, do your crap yourself. One of my catchphrases is: i told you so. I once said to a female coworker if you don't perform and I have to do your work, I demand your money. I will not work for free. Once I said that out loud everybody else chimed in. Guess what: all of a sudden the coworker did perform. In my experience its mostly about the proper motivation.

I do see more and more backbone and confidence in the workforce. Especially blue collar production workers. They now know they are allmost impossible to replace. So they take less and less BS. My guess is this will impact a lot of things related to "equality".

In the US employers haven't quite caught on to this yet, it will happen but hasn't happened yet.

There's wisdom in teaching the young to be valuable. If you're valuable you have nothing to fear.