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Polish war-game not good for Poland!   General Military Discussion

Started 1-Apr by autogun; 1888 views.
autogun

From: autogun

1-Apr

Interesting to see how the defence planning worked out...or not: https://www.overtdefense.com/2021/03/31/wargame-study-shows-polish-armed-forces-obliterated-just-5-days/

I wonder how many other similar exercises in other countries would reveal similar disasters? 

poliorcetes

From: poliorcetes

1-Apr

Such exercise is uncomfortably close to do a Saddam: fight the war the way your enemy prefers. I would identify this exercise as a major criticism of the Polish High Command against their Minister of Defense. Beyond that, if they want to oppose a theoretical Russian armored rolling attack with, quoting wikipedia

 At present, Polish Army has a stock of 1009 tanks (2017). There are a total of 249 Leopard 2 tanks (137 Leopard 2 A4, 105 Leopard 2 A5, 5 Leopard 2PL,[15] 2 Leopard 2 NJ), 232 PT-91 tanks that underwent modernization in 2016, and 328 T-72 tanks. 230 of the T-72 are being upgraded in Bumar-Labedy arms manufacturer plant.

France had the same problem during the 70-80s: how can we stop a rolling armored attack?

One interesting guy defined a different concept: instead of playing the game of the adversary, playing his own game. Essay sur la non-bataille is a VERY interesting piece in which he develops a very out-of-the-box defense concept.

Nowadays, Poland Army has more than 2.600 spike missiles. They are adquiring and fabricating warmate UAV by the thousands too.

But apparently they haven't a Brossollevsky. Nor the rest of European forces

Farmplinker

From: Farmplinker

1-Apr

There have been a couple wargames where the US loses badly to China.

Of course, several were used to propose buying the new hotness, which would have prevented defeat.

roguetechie

From: roguetechie

2-Apr

At this point though, we legitimately could lose very easily especially if we didn't initiate hostilities at a time and place of our choosing.

China has managed to position itself to where it could potentially do a lot of damage to our assets in a lot of places with a covert first strike, and that should not be taken lightly.

Farmplinker

From: Farmplinker

2-Apr

You make a very depressing point.

stancrist

From: stancrist

2-Apr

1.  I'm not seeing how conventional war between nuclear powers (US vs China, or NATO vs Russia) is at all likely.

2.  When you say "covert first strike" do you actually mean "surprise attack"?  A covert operation is intended to conceal the identity of the perpetrator.

3.  An Army officer I know once told me, "The Chinese are merchants, not warriors.  Always have been."  Is it likely that merchants would wage war against their biggest source of revenue?

gatnerd

From: gatnerd

2-Apr

stancrist said:

1.  I'm not seeing how conventional war between nuclear powers (US vs China, or NATO vs Russia) is at all likely.

I could see conflict with China remaining conventional pretty easily, as the majority of the conflict would be targeting ships, aircraft, and remote military bases, and neither party has any risk of actual invasion. 

IE either a conflict over Taiwan, or some sort of Tonkin Gulf style disaster occurs in the South China Sea. 

For China, the goal becomes destroying US Naval ships in the area, and disabling Guam, and the US airbases in Japan and Korea. 

For the US, basically the same goal. Destroying Chinese Naval forces in the area and disrupting Chinese air bases, and if things go on longer, working on thwarting Chinese merchant sealanes.  

For both parties, I imagine precision guided conventional munitions would provide plenty destructive for the task. And while loses would be grievous, its hard to see either viewing it as an existential threat rising to the need to deploy nuclear weapons. 

As the US continues to Decouple from China economically and shift supply chains out of China, I see the 'merchant' aspect being increasingly less of a deterrent for either side. Especially as the US shifts from cooperating with China economically to containing them economically. 

We're already seeing that with the US killing off much of Huawei's 5G and phone business with export controls of US based technology. 

roguetechie

From: roguetechie

3-Apr

Lol... I take it you haven't been keeping up with the news for the last week or so Stan!

If it really does kick off like it looks like it might, I'm blaming you for jinxing us lmao!

Being very serious here, ordinarily I'd agree with your point but things are looking like they could actually go that way fairly shortly between us and Russia.

stancrist

From: stancrist

3-Apr

Why?  What happened?

roguetechie

From: roguetechie

3-Apr

Someone or a combination of someones has been encouraging ukraine into being stupid and launching an offensive to take back the LPR DPR and Crimea...

This includes having the UN declare the crimean plebiscite to return to Russia illegal as well as ordering the nordstream 2 countries to stop construction on the pipeline.

The Germans and french were unable to negotiate a continuation of the minsk ceasefire protocols which ended march 31 at midnight.

In response the ukrainians moved up somewhere around 98,000 troops to the edge of the disputed territories. The Russians responded by pouring in materiel and etc to lpr and actual forces into crimea in just massive numbers. DPR and LPR removed large stocks of big guns and mlrs systems from the treaty storage yards and moved them up.

As of yesterday the desultory stalemate picked up massively, the US said it fully backs ukraine, both sides started Shelling using mlrs and uav's, and ukraine pretty much instantly started screaming for more direct nato support on the ground.

There's also a bunch of nato ships (17 +-a few) in the black sea, russian and belarusian forces moving up inside belarus including some banner vdv formations, and things are either tense and about to slide over into this situation really picking up or the cassus belli to do so may have already happened.

It's very hard to tell because propaganda and etc is flooding out from both sides but it's not looking particularly great.

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