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Australian NGSW   General Military Discussion

Started 5-Nov by Gr1ff1th; 3408 views.
hobbes154

From: hobbes154

14-Nov

Interesting contrast with the Swedish thread:

The NGSW and associated developments have indeed been followed closely from Sweden, including being briefed directly by their US counterparts. In the end, the technological risk was judged too great for a small country to seek to join the program at this stage. 

But Australia, a slightly bigger country with a less impressive military/manufacturing industry, is not just seeking to join the NGSW program but to design and build its own equivalent? 

stancrist

From: stancrist

15-Nov

hobbes154 said:

Australia, a slightly bigger country with a less impressive military/manufacturing industry, is not just seeking to join the NGSW program but to design and build its own equivalent?

Well, Australia has a military rifle maker, whereas Sweden does not.  Perhaps that has something to do with it?

EmericD

From: EmericD

15-Nov

stancrist said:

Well, Australia has a military rifle maker, whereas Sweden does not.  Perhaps that has something to do with it?

Australia is also a member of the "group of 5" (US, CAN, UK, AUS, NZ) and Sweden is not.

hobbes154

From: hobbes154

15-Nov

Well, it's a joint acquisition with Finland and will be made there, doesn't really change the argument? 

(Did surprise me Sweden doesn't have a domestic industry any more https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_Gustafs_Stads_Gev%C3%A4rsfaktori) 

gatnerd

From: gatnerd

15-Nov

hobbes154 said:

But Australia, a slightly bigger country with a less impressive military/manufacturing industry, is not just seeking to join the NGSW program but to design and build its own equivalent

I think its a mix of having Thales (which produced the pretty excellent Thales F90) plus Australia looking to solidify its military alliance (now formalized with AUKUS) with the US vis a vis an increasingly alarming China. 

Going into a more speculative aspect, perhaps Sweden / Finland feel Russia is a more 'near term' threat for them vs how Austrlia perceives the timeline for conflict with China?  In which case S/F are in more of a rush and want something they know works, now, which would be 7.62x51 with tungsten AP. 

  • Edited 15 November 2021 3:06  by  gatnerd
mpopenker

From: mpopenker

15-Nov

gatnerd said:

Going into a more speculative aspect, perhaps Sweden / Finland feel Russia is a more 'near term' threat for them vs how Austrlia perceives the timeline for conflict with China? 

I wonder if anyone with half a brain could believe that a military rifle (any rifle) would change anything during a full-scale conflict with a major military power like RU, CN, or, come to that, US or UK or AU?

If you intent on a comventional warfare, it is definitely not the case (it would be decided by much heavier equipment), see Iraq. If you plan your defensive strategy on assymetical / insurgency warfare, then again, rifle is the item of least importance, see Afhanistan.

In my humble opinion, importance of small arms is inversely proportional to the scale of conflict these days. The msaller the conflict and units engaged in it, the more important small arms become.

In a full-blown war small arms play relatively minor part, and if you suck in air force / air defence, logistics and artillery and tanks, your smalla rms are hardly relevant to your loosing the war.

gatnerd

From: gatnerd

15-Nov

mpopenker said:

I wonder if anyone with half a brain could believe that a military rifle (any rifle) would change anything during a full-scale conflict with a major military power like RU, CN, or, come to that, US or UK or AU? If you intent on a comventional warfare, it is definitely not the case (it would be decided by much heavier equipment), see Iraq. If you plan your defensive strategy on assymetical / insurgency warfare, then again, rifle is the item of least importance, see Afhanistan. In my humble opinion, importance of small arms is inversely proportional to the scale of conflict these days. The msaller the conflict and units engaged in it, the more important small arms become. In a full-blown war small arms play relatively minor part, and if you suck in air force / air defence, logistics and artillery and tanks, your smalla rms are hardly relevant to your loosing the war

Absolutely true. My analysis is not that Sweden/Finlands decision makes sense, but rather I'm seeking to make sense of Sweden/Finlands decision. 

Personally, I don't see much chance or desire for Russia to be invading Finland or Sweden (much less so imminently that they can't wait for the NGSW results...) Whereas I do see some risk of shit popping off / a gross miscalculation happening in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea in the next 10 years. But in either case, small arms seems pretty small potatoes for those type of conflicts. 

Now that said, small arms are just a part (and look to be a pretty small part) of Swedens overall defense modernization. They're looking to boost defense spending by 27% from 2020-2025, spread across naval, air, electronic, and infantry forces. This is the largest boost in spending in 70 years.

https://dsm.forecastinternational.com/wordpress/2021/01/26/sweden-looks-to-the-past-to-prepare-for-its-defense-future/

This article claims an even greater increase is expected, a 40% boost:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/15/sweden-to-increase-military-spending-by-40-as-tension-with-russia-grows

Some of the modernization (in order of what was easiest to google, all from the last year)

https://militaryleak.com/2021/08/18/swedish-armed-forces-to-receives-first-patriot-air-defense-system-this-year/

https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_november_2021_global_security_army_industry/sweden_to_renovate_stridsfordon_90a_cv90a_tracked_armored_ifvs.html

https://en.defenceturk.net/saab-delivers-modernized-gotland-class-submarine/

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/sweden%E2%80%99s-new-submarine-probably-world%E2%80%99s-stealthiest-184380

https://www.defenseworld.net/news/29947/France__Sweden_to_Develop_Anti_Tank_Missile_Based_on_MBDA___s_MMP_Weapon

General idea though is they are tooling up across the board based on the bad vibes in the neighborhood (plus I suspect a growing realization that the US is pushing the bulk of its forces towards Asia because of the Chicoms)

  • Edited 15 November 2021 6:32  by  gatnerd
EmericD

From: EmericD

15-Nov

gatnerd said:

Personally, I don't see much chance or desire for Russia to be invading Finland or Sweden (much less so imminently that they can't wait for the NGSW results...) Whereas I do see some risk of shit popping off / a gross miscalculation happening in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea in the next 10 years. But in either case, small arms seems pretty small potatoes for those type of conflicts. 

A "not-so-old" paper detailing the view from Sweden:

https://www.nato.int/docu/review/articles/2018/04/04/resilience-planning-for-swedens-total-defence/index.html

gatnerd

From: gatnerd

15-Nov

This Wall Street Journal article from Jan 2021 seems even more strident; they definitely perceive the threat to be real and are taking it seriously; much more seriously then my read on the situation thats for sure. 

https://archive.fo/Gl2ex

Some excerpts:

“We no longer can rule out a military attack on Sweden,” said Karin Olofsdotter, Sweden’s ambassador in Washington. “It’s not likely in any way, but it can’t be ruled out.”

Last month, Sweden’s parliament authorized the biggest increase in military spending in 70 years, including a 50% expansion of the country’s armed forces, to 90,000 troops in 2025 from 60,000 today. In 2018, the army resurrected its Cold War-era Gotland Regiment, which had been deactivated in 2005, and now the troops regularly train to repel Russian invaders. The army plans to add another battalion, artillery units and logistical capabilities to its forces on the island.
A U.S. Army Green Beret team is stationed full-time in Sweden to help the country’s 22,000-strong Home Guard—part-time citizen-soldiers—plan sabotage, ambush and other operations to disrupt any attempted occupation.
....
For several weeks this fall, an American Green Beret team worked with Gotland’s Home Guard detachment to practice resistance operations, a plan that leans heavily on the part-time soldiers’ intimate knowledge of the area. In one training scenario, a Home Guard soldier tapped his network of friends and family to find a mock enemy infiltrator; the soldier’s brother reported by cellphone that the man was hiding in the backyard.
“At least we’ll have a defense,” said Col. Mattias Ardin, commander of the Gotland Regiment. “It won’t be a new Crimea.”
The Swedes “have come to the realization that being quiet and not advertising capabilities has no deterrent value,” said one U.S. officer involved in the training.
Farmplinker

From: Farmplinker

15-Nov

"It won't be a Crimea". No, because most people in Crimea like being part of Russia.

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