This is intended for people interested in the subject of military guns and their ammunition, with emphasis on automatic weapons.
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Crimea now has an open flow of people and goods with Kherson 25+K folks per day ,so its much easier to move about than any time in past 8years and folks moving about are Ukrainans so its also easier to carry out sabotage and if you have ever seen open air depos in eastern Europe these things are not really guarded much. They just had one go tits up in Bulgaria as well plus these days you don't need to sneak in and place a charge you fly in a Mavic and do the job .
For same reason Ukainans have Mikolaiv under lockdown and are looking for Russian 'sympathizers' door to door , things keep blowing up on the other side as well only the delivery of HE might be in the form of a cruise missile.
I've been wondering about UA's tank conundrum. It has been reported that Western tanks are too heavy for the existing infrastructure. Would something like the Lynx FSV be an option?
An option for what exactly? Providing direct fire support to UA infantry units? Maybe if this capability is required.
The problem is not the infrastructure alone. Its part of the problem. The entire UA logistics, maintenance, recovery and support organisation and equipment is layed out to support vehicles of the 40 t class of soviet origin. Even giving them 40 t Western equipment is problematic. The more the new equipment differs from the old the more problematic it gets. Just Look how much troubles the PzH2000 create. These are only a handfull and not really being shot at. Delivering tanks is much more problematic.
The UA asked for Leo 1 for a reason. These would be available in significant and usefull numbers quickly once refurbishing starts. Spares are available as well. The tank is in the same weight range as their soviet equipment and Leo 1 is a vehicle family which includes support assets like ARV and AVLB. So they could create fully equiped formations based on Leo 1. Which would still mean more complicated logistics but it would be contained in so specific units.
In the long run it makes little sense to go for stuff like Lynx FS as MBT replacement. It can only be long run since the production of a usefull Nummer of Lynx would take years anyways. Better to get a fleht of proper western MBTs while adjusting the infrastructure and support. Would be far more effective.
So the way to go would be refurbishment of Leo1s, possibly with a new turret too? How many does Germany have kicking around? And if the order for 100 PzH 2000 did actually happen and is approved, surely buying Leo1s should not be a problem anymore?
Would there be a point to giving them new turrets? And what, apart from the failures we already discussed are the issues with P2k? I you can share them of course. The problems that I see with infrastructure is retaking territory.
there are hundreds of Leo 1 around. Most are in the posession of the defense industry. Only some are left in government posession. Most oft the stocks in government posession have been destroyed by now. I don't know the exact numbers though.
I really don't see the point in a new turret. The original ones work fine and are at least ay available ay the hulls.
I can not say anything about if Leo 1 would be approved or not. I simply can not fathom the decision making process of the german government. My guess is nobody really can. So my guess is ay good as anyones.
My assesment is that the 100 PzH have been approved because most likely they will be delivered after the war. So they are concidered less problematic. Which means this is not precedent for delivering weapons to be used now.
The Gepards and the current in use PzH and all other weapons have been delivered into an active war so i really do not see the difference. Either delivering weapons is a problem or its not. But arguing around on specific weapon types makes no sense to me. There has been an almost legendary Video with the german secretary of defensed being questioned about this exact issue... its a failure of epic proportions, highly embarrasing and would be hillarious if it wasn't such a serious issue.
As mentioned befor there are no failures with the PzH2000. Just some problems with maintenance and repair. Most is propably allready adressed by now. Some issues came up because of the high intensity use. Again nothing special or really problematic. Some problems and inconveniences. In general the PzH work great and do what they are supposed to.
Do you have a link to the video?
Lambrecht Sieben deutsche Panzer Haubitzen in der Ukraine
Her answers trough the entire questioning are bad. But when asked about the Gepards (18:30 -19:35) it really becomes embarrasing. Its all completly false and shows her utter lack of knowledge and understanding. The only thing that is missing is she saying: "pew pew pew". All this in a smug and arrogant way that is completly unprofessional and unworthy of her position and the place.
P.S.: I remebert it wrong. Thought it was a press conference. But its actually a Q and A session in the Bundestag and she is answering to members of the parliament who summoned her for questioning.
The inanity of German policy is absolutely horrifying. If we seold them all the Leo1s they might have a chance. And that is important. What is happenign at the moment is a betrayal of everything we in the West supposedly stand for.
How long do you think getting sizable numbers of leopard 1 ready for combat would take? I imagine minimum 6 months to a year same for crew training. And Ukrainians would still have tanks that are probably worse than T72 clones they got from eastern Europe , most of which have somewhat modernized optronics at least a generation ahead of Leopard1, plus they know how to maintain those.
Weapons supplies are barely trickling in. A self induced recesion is here in most of the western economies and winter is around the corner Ukraine can only expect much less from Europe in the upcoming months. Old surplus depos are mostly emptied of the ex-soviet gear useful to Ukrainians ,( for example there is hardly any ammo for all their soviet era artillery, so they are now increasingly limited to much smaller numbers of NATO standard artillery.
Although mud season will slow the logistics in a month or two, i dont think i will matter much considering how little front lines are moving per day and mud season cuts both ways.
*title is a bit misleading but it gets the gist of it. You can tell that European $$ or lack there off are more or less directly tied to any Ukrainian success on the battlefield in absence of anything that looks like winning except the Euro$$ support to continue to drop.
By Ben Aris in Berlin August 18, 2022
The flow of new international support for Ukraine “dried up” completely in July, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, which has been tracking donations. There were no new promises of any sort of aid from any of the large EU members like Germany, France or Italy, the institute said in its latest release on August 18.
“The newest update of the Ukraine Support Tracker (July 2 to August 3) shows that in July, Ukraine received only around €1.5bn in new pledges of support. In total, the tracker now records commitments of €84.2 billion,” said Christoph Trebesch, head of the team that compiles the Ukraine Support Tracker. “In July, donor countries initiated almost no new aid, but they did deliver some of the already committed support such as weapon systems.”
Germany, for example, has not announced any further military support, although it did send considerable military aid that was committed earlier.
This is the first month since the war started just over six months ago that Ukraine has received no new pledges of help, either military or financial.
Mr. T (MrT4) said:
How long do you think getting sizable numbers of leopard 1 ready for combat would take? I imagine minimum 6 months to a year same for crew training.
Its propably doable to get a batallion up to a brigade worth of Leo 1 ready within six month. If there is eough effort put into it. Crew training is less problematic. It can be done in parallel.
To what standard these Leo 1 would be upgraded is unclear. The baseline Leo 1A5, the last version the BW used has the same fire controll and optics as the Leopard 2 A4 did. Actually a little better. Its sort of a M60A3 and M1 situation. The Leo 1 A6 which had been developed but not introduced in service increased protection and rearmed the Leo 1 with a 120 mm L44 gun. All Leo 1 A5 can be rearmed this way. The vehicles had been prepared for this.
My guess is they would use new Optics and FCS as drop in OTS solution. Makes little sense to restart production of old equipment. Maybe the Ukrainians even mount ERA on them. There are several options really.
Mr. T (MrT4) said:
A self induced recesion is here in most of the western economies and winter is around the corner Ukraine can only expect much less from Europe in the upcoming months
This was to be expected. The intrest in the war vanes. Other things now make the headlines. The situation on the frontline has become rather static.
But there really is no recession and certainly not self induces. The German economy is booming. There is more demand than production capacity. Especially the shortages caused by the global supply chain interuption by China is problematic. This is not a long term problem tough. The gas supply for the German industry is mostly secure now. This problem is solved. The big thing here in Germany currently is the drough and heat waves. But there is nothing that can be done. We will have to sit this one out. Autum will come and with it rain and cooler weather.
Mr. T (MrT4) said:
For the first time, Ukraine’s western partners sent no new aid in July
This is misleading. For the first time no new help programs have been initiated. The ones allready running are just that. Still running. Once these are fullfilled and the need for more is clear and it can be assesed what is needed more will come.
A lot is currently happening at low key and quietly.
Germany for example is in the process to provide UA with Vulcano ammo of the PzH 2000. Didn't really make the news but this is really amazing. The stuff is brand new and has not yet been introduced in the German Army. This is scheduled for completion in 2025. The first batches now all go to UA.