gatnerd

Military Guns and Ammunition

Hosted by gatnerd

This is intended for people interested in the subject of military guns and their ammunition, with emphasis on automatic weapons.

  • 3358
    MEMBERS
  • 191149
    MESSAGES
  • 0
    POSTS TODAY

Discussions

Ukraine weapons thread   General Military Discussion

Started 24/2/22 by gatnerd; 182919 views.
Mr. T (MrT4)

From: Mr. T (MrT4)

1-Sep

Will see in couple ofdays after the fog clears .If they manage any gains or they just wasted a lot of manpower and armor ,

What OPSEC , they were literally boasting of this offensive for 2+ months , in meantime Russians reinforced their positions in Kherson in anticipation of the offensive. So literaly no element of suprise at all ,not only that 2 months of talking about it enabled Russians to transfer some 30BTG into Kherson. 

Offensive on Kherson pressers :

August 29 - '' AFU offensive operations in the southern direction began after consultations with the US military, who helped the AFU determine offensive scenarios that could lead to success''

September 1 -'' Zelensky launched an offensive in the southern direction, contrary to the opinion of the military.''

Victory has many fathers, defeat is always an orphan.

Where did you find any statments to indicate that.? What would Ukrainian gag order mean to anyone let alone Russians talking on Telegram?

renatohm said:

Despite the Ukrainian gag order due to OPSEC, Russians in Telegram are saying that Ukraine is laser focused on counter battery fire, in addition to the (now well stablished) tactic of attacking logistical nodes.

gatnerd

From: gatnerd

1-Sep

I believe the ‘gag order’ is a request for citizens / press / internet  war autismos to refrain from sharing any time sensitive  news and especially photos/videos of the offensive which could reveal troop movements or target locations via geolocation.

I’ve seen several mentions to that effect on various Ukraine following sub Reddit’s; I’m not sure how ‘official’ this request is but some at least appear to be following it.

EmericD

From: EmericD

1-Sep

Mr. T (MrT4) said:

What OPSEC , they were literally boasting of this offensive for 2+ months , in meantime Russians reinforced their positions in Kherson in anticipation of the offensive. So literaly no element of suprise at all ,not only that 2 months of talking about it enabled Russians to transfer some 30BTG into Kherson

Maybe some answers here?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_a291BJXTRo

DavidPawley

From: DavidPawley

2-Sep

Shorter @MrT4: Russia stronk.

schnuersi

From: schnuersi

2-Sep

Wanted to reply but watched the video EmericD postet befor. I wanted to make some points that are brought up in the video too.

Mr. T (MrT4) said:

So literaly no element of suprise at all ,not only that 2 months of talking about it enabled Russians to transfer some 30BTG into Kherson.

Which might be exactly what the Ukrainians want. The region around Kherson is basically a Salient. If the UA manages to strangle the Russians supply routes, and from the information we have it seems they focus exactly on that, the Russian forces there might become trapped.
The problem RU now faces is long front lines and long and vulnurable supply routes. At the same time they are running out of troops and equipment. This puts them in a very difficult position. Their two best options would be to either resume offensive opperations immediatly to get into a better position or fall back to shorten the front line and get into a better defensive position. It seems they lack the resources for the former and the latter is not an option for their political leadership.
I have such strange feelings of déjà-vu when looking at the state the conflict is currently in.

While it is true that UA will not have strategical supprise they might achieve operational and tactical is allways possible. As mentioned it is entirely possible that the loud anouncement to retake Kherson is part of a plan. It might be a ruse. Or the intention is to attract RU reinforcements to the region and by this releasing pressure on other regions. Maybe the goal is to trap them there. Which certainly is a gamble but if it works the payoff will be massive.

  • Edited 02 September 2022 7:17  by  schnuersi
gatnerd

From: gatnerd

2-Sep

Peter Zeihan has some nice maps and interesting theories as pertains to the counter offensive starting at the 7 minute mark:

He's not sure how the counter offensive will go, but geographically, it couldnt be better for Ukraine.

He believes that due to the damage the 2 bridges have received via HIMARS/other strikes, they can only support light civilian transport and not heavy military vehicles. This means that re-supply will be very hard for the RU forces who have crossed the river, and most importantly in his view, if the RU forces have to retreat, they will have to leave behind their heavy military vehicles. 

In Zeihans view, the potential to capture large stocks of increasingly irreplaceable soviet erra equipment is the biggest potential upside of the counter offensive. 

Mr. T (MrT4)

From: Mr. T (MrT4)

2-Sep

Indeed Kherson's north bank is a rather exposed position to hold , i am somewhat surprised that Russians chose to hold the whole of Kherson region vs only east bank of Dnieper and indeed might be the best place to try and force a mayor break through, but many of these U-tube generals seem to not be looking at the maps in too much detail. Kherson's line of contact has been stationary for the past 3-4 months and much of its is runing along 2 smaller rivers , which means the attacking forces need to utilize pontoon bridges to cross and maintain lines of communication. Pontoon bridges don't last long after they are discovered and if in range of artillery.

I am also not to convinced that cost of gear and manpower lost would justify war booty being a mayor objective . That is kinda wishful thinking, they are getting eastern and western armor delivered daily free of charge and here they are losing a lots of men and gear, it definitely not about gear and supplies. Ukraine simply needs to show it can actually take any ground before sponsors decide it can't.

One thing that could be noted in this offensive that HARM launches in weeks and days ahead had some effect as the SAM coverage over Kherson was spotty enough for Bayraktar to make an appearance after a considerable time of absence on front lines due to not being survivable in contested airspace.

https://t.me/milinfolive/89814

Too early to tell if any terrain could be taken and held. Ukrainan MOD is not reporting on Kherson 'reconcqista' victories ,only about depots and command centers destroyed. 

This is the only major breakthrough in lines to be seen so far and even this bridgehead seems to have been reduced in size since yesterday, note its facilitated by 3 pontoon bridges so its quite precarious and in danger of being cut off.

Who would have taught that one month training is not enough for combat use

gatnerd

From: gatnerd

3-Sep

First visual confirmation of Excalibur guided 155mm shells:

graylion

From: graylion

4-Sep

schnuersi said:

Which might be exactly what the Ukrainians want. The region around Kherson is basically a Salient. If the UA manages to strangle the Russians supply routes, and from the information we have it seems they focus exactly on that, the Russian forces there might become trapped.

I have heard that specific opinion expressed: That this is a trap.

graylion

From: graylion

5-Sep

So modern Western professional army tries to apply its own standards to an Eastern army that is being stood up out of civilians and is surprised? Oh boohoo. We can clearly hear the miffedness about having to buy AKs. At what cost? Several 1000 at what? 400$ each? That was the British Army not thinking.

TOP