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Ukraine weapons thread   General Military Discussion

Started 24/2/22 by gatnerd; 217006 views.
gatnerd

From: gatnerd

8-Dec

Well in terms of more China focused munitions, this is also happening:

I think in the next few years, the kinetic aspect of deterrence will be pretty solid.

The big issue is economic, and there the US has a long way to go. Right now huge swathes of the US economy is dependent on Chinese imports of retail consumer products. Millions, possibly over 10 million, jobs are tied up in selling these Chinese widgets. Theres also chemical precursors for medicine etc that were foolishly of shored that would be bad to do without... 

When the first missile is fired in defense of Taiwan, thats all over. And that sort of economic dependency and destruction greatly curtails the deterrent effect.

The US needs to further increase industrial policy to create a ABC - "Anywhere But China" - Supply chain. The US should impose +1% tariffs per month on Chinese imports, with the goal of ending all imports of Chinese goods over the next decade. And the money raised from those tariffs, plus loans, should be offered to any company relocating their manufacturing to another country. 

It should also develop policies to create a sort of "Freedom Trade" to encourage manufacturing and better economic links with allies in the Pacific and Europe. (IE encourage US Steel manufacturers to buy Australian iron ore instead of ore from Brazil, etc.) 

  • Edited 08 December 2022 2:02  by  gatnerd
Farmplinker

From: Farmplinker

8-Dec

Fortunately, we're starting to do what you mentioned. Like I told Mr. T4, my employer sends a lot of product to Mexico, to make components that are used by American companies. (After 30 years, North American free trade is working like it was supposed to!)

As for precursor chemicals, possibly India as a China substitute, if they can get their QC up. Frankly, we need a Chemicals Initiative for our industrial policy.  Support R&D, and crush the NIMBY/BANANA legal-industrial complex so plants can be built, and actually make products. (Energetics for artillery are a good first step.)

gatnerd

From: gatnerd

8-Dec

Farmplinker said:

As for precursor chemicals, possibly India as a China substitute, if they can get their QC up

Relocating chemical production to Germany would have been ideal, as they are the world leaders in chemical production.

But one of the many tragedies of the war in Ukraine is its effect on German industry, which really relied on plentiful cheep natural gas from Russia.

Most of their chemical precursors are derived from breaking down natural gas into various chemical sub compounds. Without tons of cheap gas, thats all in peril. 

https://www.ft.com/content/50a462b3-0e8b-49e1-873c-9505760d4a66

Now BASF is looking to build a new chemical complex - in China. 

...

Mexico might be a good choice. It would negate the NIMBY factor, and its partially tied into the US natural gas supply. Plus more jobs in mexico serves as its own sort of 'wall' to reduce illegal immigration. 

  • Edited 08 December 2022 3:26  by  gatnerd
Farmplinker

From: Farmplinker

8-Dec

I'd love us to get more petrochemical plant here in the Ohio Valley. Lots of natural gas, and due to pipeline constraints, limited out of area exports. So cheap. Close to most US (and probably Canadian) polymer production. Good cost of living.

But a lot of NIMBY/BANANA, alas.

schnuersi

From: schnuersi

8-Dec

gatnerd said:

Most of their chemical precursors are derived from breaking down natural gas into various chemical sub compounds. Without tons of cheap gas, thats all in peril. 

That is so yesterdays news ;)
For starters the first LNG tankers arrived so there is plenty of gas again. The entire gas shortage has been inflated and really only made a problem by politicians paniking. The supply is not in danger. The price for gas has dropped down to a reasonable level. Not as low as pre war but below problematic.
At the same time the major cheamical plants allready have or are in the process of switching their processes from natural gas as raw material to H2. This has been planned for a long time anyways to achieve CO2 neutral products. They just accellerated the plans.
For the German industry (and the nation as a whole) the war in UA is a good thing in the long run. It shaked a lot of things loose, woke people up and put things back into perspective. We se more change, modernisation and improvement in Germany since February than we had during the entire Merkel administration. When the war ends things will have to be rebuild... guess who is allready fist in line to do it.

gatnerd

From: gatnerd

8-Dec

schnuersi said:

That is so yesterdays news ;) For starters the first LNG tankers arrived so there is plenty of gas again. The entire gas shortage has been inflated and really only made a problem by politicians paniking. The supply is not in danger. The price for gas has dropped down to a reasonable level. Not as low as pre war but below problematic.

Thats wonderful to hear. I had read that FT article this morning and was pretty bummed out, it made things seem quite dire. 

In terms of H2, most of that is sourced currently from Nat Gas. And also H2 is much harder to work for a number of factors. Where is Germany going to source a bunch of Hydrogen from if not nat gas? 

schnuersi

From: schnuersi

8-Dec

Farmplinker said:

But a lot of NIMBY/BANANA, alas.

These are everywhere nowadays... like cancer.
When the factories and plants are build far away and the roads make huge detours to stay away they complain that its difficult to reach their workplace or even better that all the driving is bad for the climate and has to be regulated because the people drive around so much instead of walking or staying at home.
 

schnuersi

From: schnuersi

8-Dec

gatnerd said:

In terms of H2, most of that is sourced currently from Nat Gas. And also H2 is much harder to work for a number of factors. Where is Germany going to source a bunch of Hydrogen from if not nat gas? 

The idea is to use the power generated by wind turbines to crack water.
Currently we use french nuclear power to crack water for some and the majority is, as you correctly say, made from natural gas. Originally the H2 move of the chemical industry has been mostly greenwashing. But since things are moving now it actually could make sense.
Because of the changed situation wind turbines, cracking plants, power lines, pipelines, P2F plants are being fasttracked and construction actually started. Its amazing how quickly things can be done if you just do them. The on shore LNG terminals are being build with allmost breathtaking speed unkown in Germany for decades.
I should also mention that the destruction of the pipelines from Russia worked as a catalyst. Now there really is no way back and everybody who counts really got that.

gatnerd

From: gatnerd

8-Dec

We had a funny one in Nevada. Environmental groups campaigned for years to build a solar farm out there, because the whole state is basically a sunny desert wasteland perfect for it.

Then some company decides to build the solar farm, in the middle of nowhere (like where one could set an atom bomb off for testing nowhere.)

Another environmental group sued to block the project, to protect some turtle that no one had ever heard of that lives in that wasteland.

Apparently global warming is both an imminent catastrophe that all stops must be pulled out to prevent, yet we should not dare to inconvenience some random desert turtles to mitigate it. 

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