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Ukraine weapons thread   General Military Discussion

Started 24/2/22 by gatnerd; 188821 views.
stancrist

From: stancrist

21/5/22

schnuersi said:

In most videos the conclusion that the tank shown is a lone wolf can not be drawn. In the fist part of the the video linked, the first 40 seconds, the area shown is too small. Tanks under combat conditions are usually more than 50 m appart. More than 100 m in open country are not uncommon. Most videos i have seen don't show large areas. They are zoomed in and focus on one vehicle.

I agree that during the first 40 seconds the visible area is too small for such a conclusion.  However, from 50-55 seconds, the area seen is easily 200 meters in all directions from the T80, and there is not another tank in sight.

schnuersi

From: schnuersi

21/5/22

stancrist said:

I agree that during the first 40 seconds the visible area is too small for such a conclusion. However, from 50-55 seconds, the area seen is easily 200 meters in all directions from the T80, and there is not another tank in sight.

Fully agree.
This is why i mentioned the first 40 seconds and did not write "in all videos".
The problem is, with everything, context is king. The information we get is usually out of context. Therefor its allmost impossible to evaluate the information with any degree of certainty.
For example the area being fought on is huge and there are no consistent frontlines. We know the Ukrainians use infiltration and hit and run tactics. It could be the case that tanks that got seperated from their units and are on march to catch up are being ambushed by units behind the frontline. Or better what is concidered the frontline by the tankers. Single or small groups of tanks make great ambush targets.
It could also be the case that small groups of tanks are send out to "investigate" or patrol the area because there are no consitent frontlines.

While we see a lot ot tanks and other AFV IMHO we see rather few infantry. Yes in Mariopol there has been mostly infantry action but in the countryside it seems there are only few Russian boots on the ground.

Mr. T (MrT4)

From: Mr. T (MrT4)

21/5/22

There is plenty of infantry on both sides, end of the day you have hundreds of thousands of troops on both sides probably well over  300k in Donbas alone, you just have to separate the fiction of propaganda reels you see and the reality you don't. Actions of hitting tanks or APCs are good for clicks . I doubt there is much infiltration action aside from SF units on both sides . At present,in Donbas, there are a bunch of settlements being fought over and i imagine is mostly down to infantry action.

''Ukraine Weapons Tracker writes that the United States handed over to Ukraine weapons that were previously intercepted on ships at sea on their way from Iran to the Yemeni Houthis. Earlier in Ukraine, Chinese Type 56-1 assault rifles were lit up (and, as indicated, outwardly they look exactly like those that were captured by the Americans), but now the Armed Forces of Ukraine have got such a mortar, which, as the authors write according to their source, is called HM19 and is An 82mm variant of the Iranian HM15 81mm mortar, apparently specially made for the Houthis, who use 82mm mortars.''

schnuersi

From: schnuersi

21/5/22

Mr. T (MrT4) said:

end of the day you have hundreds of thousands of troops on both sides probably well over 300k in Donbas alone,

You are aware that 300 k troops doesn't mean 300 k frontline fighters, right? In a modern army only one out of 7 to one out of 10 soldiers is actually a fighter in a front line combat unit.
This means there are less than 50 k actual frontline fighters present. Concidering the vastness of the area that is allmost nothing. The estimated number of troops needed to have a more or less continous frontline and controll the area once captured are in excess of one million troops.

Mr. T (MrT4) said:

I doubt there is much infiltration action aside from SF units on both sides .

I disagree. The fighting in Ukraine has been all about infiltration and counter infiltration, hit and run and attacks on the rear echelons since day one.
You are aware that infiltration is a mode of opperation used by all branches? Even tanks can do that.
With the low troop density in the theatre and no continous frontlines there will be lots of infiltration by both sides going on.

Mr. T (MrT4) said:

At present,in Donbas, there are a bunch of settlements being fought over and i imagine is mostly down to infantry action.

That is speculation.

I would also argue that shooting up an infantry attack makes for as good propaganda footage as does shooting up a couple of tanks.

stancrist

From: stancrist

21/5/22

Mr. T (MrT4) said:

There is plenty of infantry on both sides...you just have to separate the fiction of propaganda reels you see and the reality you don't.

Hmm.  If you do not see something, how would you know it is reality?

Mr. T (MrT4) said:

Actions of hitting tanks or APCs are good for clicks .

While that is undoubtedly true, I think it's only a small part of the story.

By their nature, helmet cam videos of infantry combat rarely -- if ever -- show the enemy soldiers being hit.  They are either concealed, too far from the camera, or not in the frame.

In contrast, tanks and IFVs are usually out in the open, large and quite visible, and always in the field of view.

Also, when an AFV is hit, it is very noticeable, even when viewed from high above.  For example, @ 0:11 and 0:20 in https://youtu.be/RKCwRVfVV3c?t=10

But, when infantrymen are hit (0:22-0:34 in the video), they are just barely visible specks, either completely motionless or ever so slowly crawling away.

Mr. T (MrT4)

From: Mr. T (MrT4)

21/5/22

What you see in daily propaganda reels is 95+% Ukrainian footage from drones when they have something that looks like winning, what you don't see is the flip side when they are being hammered and in most cases, for both sides, there is no footage of that , when you read the reports from the foreign fighters returning from Ukraine most tell a much different story than is being spun by MSM, only some reports in small print weeks after the action that resulted in xyz casualties that are acknowledged weeks or even months later typically only ones they mention are the pilots. So the 'reality' we are presented is a collage of selected snapshots that inevitably paints a sqewed picture. 

We are still in the stage where MSM is telling us Patriots are absolutely taking down all the scuds, only to find out later they hit jack shit.

A sporting analogy to a war reality show we are seeing:

You and I go shoot some clays , let say 100 each , you hit 60  i hit 20 , i also need to keep my sponsor impressed so i post 15 videos of hitting clays you post 5 , my 40 friends repost my vids and here and there some vids are cut and reposted so there are 60 vids of me hitting clays and maybe 5 of you that are in addition posted on a different much more obscure server . Who do you think is overwhelmingly winning it according to folks that only know what was going on based on vids and my statement where i boasted of my achievements  . That is what Ukraine war reporting is like.

Indeed and even in drone footage you often do not see the infantry that is hidden, obstructed etc , but end of the day every BTR, BMP, MLBT and many trucks etc brought in troops, and considering they like to ride on top of them , they are already disembarked when we see the APCs in action.  

I also understand that tooth to tail ratio is these days 16% in US (augmented when some of the tail is substituted by contractors in policing actions like Afghanistan Iraq ) and maybe 22% in Russian military , Ukrainian tooth to tail ratio is probably higher . Total number of troops in Ukraine is probably well over a Million, considering Ukraine has been drafting folks for 3 months. (They just passed a law that could strip citizenships from eligible males that dodged draft , traveled abroad and haven't returned)

Somewhere in Kiev

stancrist

From: stancrist

21/5/22

Mr. T (MrT4) said:

What you see in daily propaganda reels is 95+% Ukrainian footage from drones when they have something that looks like winning, what you don't see is the flip side when they are being hammered and in most cases, for both sides, there is no footage of that...  So the 'reality' we are presented is a collage of selected snapshots that inevitably paints a sqewed picture.

Yeah, I realize that, but it's not what I'm asking about.

Mr. T (MrT4) said:

Indeed and even in drone footage you often do not see the infantry that is hidden, obstructed etc...

That is an example of the reality I was referring to.  If you do not see infantry in a video, of course it could be because they are hidden from view.

However, we do not know if that actually is the case.  It could just as easily be that we do not see infantry in a video because no infantry is there.

gatnerd

From: gatnerd

21/5/22

when you read the reports from the foreign fighters returning from Ukraine most tell a much different story than is being spun by MSM, only some reports in small print weeks“

Could you suggest some of the outlets covering these stories? It would be great to get a more detailed / nuanced analysis of what’s happening on the ground, but it’s hard to know where to look.

Mr. T (MrT4)

From: Mr. T (MrT4)

21/5/22

Google for couple of minutes plenty to be found . But the story they tell is much the same and very much unlike what MSM is painting. 

Two months after responding to President Volodymyr Zelensky's call, sniper Wali is back in Quebec – unscathed, although he nearly lost his life there “several times”. But most foreign fighters who have visited Ukraine like him have come away bitterly disappointed, mired in the fog of war without even having been to the front lines once.
''
In the end, he himself said he only fired two bullets into windows “to scare people” and never really came within enemy firing range. Many arrive in Ukraine with their chests bulging, but leave with their tails between their legs "It's a war of machines", where the "extremely brave" Ukrainian soldiers suffer very heavy losses from shelling, but "miss many opportunities" to weaken the enemy because they lack knowledge technical military, he summarizes. “If the Ukrainians had the procedures we had in Afghanistan to communicate with the artillery, we could have caused carnage,” he believes.

https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/2022-05-06/retour-du-tireur-d-elite-wali/la-guerre-c-est-une-deception-terrible.php

schnuersi

From: schnuersi

22/5/22

It is well known that the Ukrainians are not exactly thrilled by foreign people wanting to fight for them. There are good reasons for that.

They deliberatly keep foreign fighters at an arms length and do not deploy them to the frontline. They also don't pass any substancial information to them.
This of course leads to a lot of people leaving and feeling offended. Which of course has influence on their reports and the stories they tell.

Mr. T (MrT4) said:

where the "extremely brave" Ukrainian soldiers suffer very heavy losses from shelling, but "miss many opportunities" to weaken the enemy because they lack knowledge technical military, he summarizes. “If the Ukrainians had the procedures we had in Afghanistan to communicate with the artillery, we could have caused carnage,” he believes.

How does he know that if he has not been t the front line once? Because two lines above it stated exactly that. At best it is hearsay.

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