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Ukraine weapons thread   General Military Discussion

Started 24/2/22 by gatnerd; 183669 views.
Farmplinker

From: Farmplinker

10-Jun

How long before Elon has to demonstrate that a Starlink bird is an effective kinetic kill vehicle?

gatnerd

From: gatnerd

10-Jun

I wonder if they are? my understanding is most of Starlink is in low earth orbit, well below where most enemy satellites would be hanging out

gatnerd

From: gatnerd

10-Jun

Snipex 14.5mm somewhere in Ukraine

Mr. T (MrT4)

From: Mr. T (MrT4)

12-Jun

Asides from enormous casualties 200KIA per day (add cca 4 WIA per KIA ) , extended and interrupted Ukrainian logistics are now the weak link.  Stocks of old surplus are draining up even abroad.

Ukraine has now almost completely run out of ammunition for the Soviet-era weapons systems that were the mainstay of its arsenal, and the Eastern European countries that maintained the same systems have run out of surplus supplies to donate, Danylyuk said. Ukraine urgently needs to shift to longer-range and more sophisticated Western systems, but those have only recently been committed, and in insufficient quantities to match Russia’s immense firepower, he said.

Ukraine’s military intelligence believes that Russia can continue at its current rate without manufacturing more weapons or mobilising for another year (kinda begs to question the massively inflated losses estimates published)

Russia is firing as many as 50,000 artillery rounds a day into Ukrainian positions, and the Ukrainians can only hit back with around 5,000 to 6,000 rounds a day, he said. The United States has committed to deliver 220,000 rounds of ammunition — enough to match Russian firepower for around four days.

To match Russia's 50,000 rounds per day, with each round weighing 50 kilograms, some 2,500 metric tons of ammunition would have to be moved per day from Ukraine's western border to the east. After reaching some railhead in the east they would have to be loaded on some 350 trucks to be distributed while being under fire from long ranging Russian weapons. This would have to happen each and every day.

For the first time since the war began, there is now concern over desertion. The report, seen by The Independent, says the worsening situation in the Donbas, with up to a hundred soldiers being killed a day, is having “a seriously demoralizing effect on Ukrainian forces as well as a very real material effect; cases of desertion are growing every week”.''
Morale can not replace firepower. Morale gets destroyed when soldiers come under concentrated artillery fire. 

schnuersi

From: schnuersi

12-Jun

Mr. T (MrT4) said:

(kinda begs to question the massively inflated losses estimates published)

Not really.
You have to keep in mind the extrely different situations in the West, NATO, Europe and in Russia. Russia still sits on the vast stockpiles the Soviets collected over the decades of the Cold War. Now they use it. These stockpile where for a full out war against NATO. With oders of magnitude more consumption per day. So of course these will last very long for a small scale (by comparison) war. The Russians simply have the equipment. They still can compensate for the losses.
In the West everything is gone. Quite literally. Storage costs money. So the stockpiles where rationalised and given up. You propably can't immagine how bleak the situation in Germany currently is.
The idea in the last decades has been that the most likely conflicts would be so limited the minimum on hand storage is enough and new stuff can be ordered and delivered if really needed. Which seemed rather unlikely because no third world nation would be able to put up serious resistance to a force from western allies. No military operation of wetern forces in the last decades included more than 100 days of high intensity fighting.
Now we see a drawn out HIC and supprise, supprise all the non existent preperation is insufficient. At the same time we are close to a breakdown of the globalised supply chains which causes extreme complications for reacting quickly. Covid still is a problem as well.

Mr. T (MrT4) said:

For the first time since the war began, there is now concern over desertion

That sounds strange to me. Where would the deserters go? To Russia? Certainly not. If they simply go home they will get caught. So what are the options.
If by desertion they mean unsanctioned retreat or routing this is technically something different.

Mr. T (MrT4)

From: Mr. T (MrT4)

12-Jun

For stockpiles, i agree Russia has enormous soviet stocks (often in shady outdoor depos that from time to time catch fire and blow up) , Ukraine sold of much of theirs off after initially being left with someting like 4th largest arsenal in the world. 

The part where they say Russians can go for another year before having to conduct a draft is the part that just doesn't compute with the overinflated Russian casualty figures they have been publishing  in MSM  at 30k or so frontline troops!

Why do you think desertion is hard to pull off? Its most feasible when you are on home turf. Drop the guns and GTFO of Dodge  and it doesn't look like these are individuals but whole units, even if caught they face less of a peril than on a front with 50.000shells per day inducing cca 1000 casualties daily. As far as we know the Rada ultimately did not pass the law that would enable commanders to shoot their own troops in extreme cases. At present, it seems POWs are far more humanely treated on the Russian side than the Ukrainian side. and POW camps are filling fast with over 8500POW held in Donbas detention centers as of May.

https://s2.cdnstatic.space/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/NY.mp4?_=1

In an case it seems Austrian Miltary is the only one making some decent public analysis of the shitshow 

https://youtu.be/RpC1kXhW2Lw

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-troops-deserting-russias-artillery-onslaught-takes-toll-report-says-2022-6

schnuersi

From: schnuersi

12-Jun

Mr. T (MrT4) said:

at 30k or so frontline troops!

You say yourself the numbers are overinflated. Besides it seems the change in strategie was most likely to reduce casulties.

Mr. T (MrT4) said:

Why do you think desertion is hard to pull off? Its most feasible when you are on home turf. Drop the guns and GTFO of Dodge

Because you get caught immediatly and besides being punished you are send back. Where do you want to go? Home? Home is where the police is and all the people you let down. There is a good chance nobody in your home community will every talk to you again. You turn into a paria. It won't be your home anymore.
For a lot of people it makes more sense to die on the frontline than to have to live a life alone and in shame.
That doesn't mean there are no deserters it just makes mass desertion or desintigration of entire units rather unlikely.

Mr. T (MrT4) said:

As far as we know the Rada ultimately did not pass the law that would enable commanders to shoot their own troops in extreme cases.

Lol... if you need to force your people to fight at gunpoint there is something really wrong allready. Most countries don't have such laws but their troops are disciplined and fight. There are such things as national pride and sense of duty.

Mr. T (MrT4) said:

At present, it seems POWs are far more humanely treated on the Russian side than the Ukrainian side.

Now that is clearly BS since we know that the Russians treat their POWs like criminals and even trial them. Which is in direct violation of international law.

Mr. T (MrT4) said:

and POW camps are filling fast with over 8500POW held in Donbas detention centers as of May.

Calling it a detention center allready shows this. Its a POW camp and not a prison. Two entirely different things.
The fact that they are filling is completly unrelated to the treatment.


It has been obvious all along that in a war of attrition the Ukraine can not stand against Russia. Since in the initial phase with a war of manoeuver the Russian army miserably failed they now switched to an war of attrition strategie. Which most likely will work but it will leave a completly destroyed and uninhabited wasteland.
Regardless the Ukrainians will most likely not seize to fight. They will simply switch their strategie to a guerrial war and insurgency. Against which again a strategie of artillery based attrition is completly ineffective. Its all about action and reaction.
While currently it seems UA is working against a clock its actually Russia who does. Because once the West managed to sort it problems out and ramp up production, the training of UA troops is finished and the full influx of modern western equipment becomes active it will get very difficult for Russia.
Regardless of what happens on the frontline Russia has no long term option. Even if they overrun UA. What happens than? They will have an insurgency to deal with. Stay cut of from international trade and finances. Isolated from the rest of the world. Its hardly imaginable that they even can finance the rebuilding of UA. What is the long term perspective?
There is non other than a) sitting on a pile of ashes and rubble and mumbling to themself that they have won while falling more and more into poverty or b) giving all conquered groud back, pay reparations and having the posibility for a better future in a couple of decades. That is really all there is left for them. They have managed to so thoroughly manoeuver themself into a corner as no other nation has for a very long time.

graylion

From: graylion

12-Jun

separatist republics throwing completely untrained troops into the fight: https://youtu.be/AKewF8_SiIs

Mr. T (MrT4)

From: Mr. T (MrT4)

12-Jun

Ok now there is some first rate BS 

Ok potato tomato , who knows what they are , they function the same as a low  security prison no matter how we turn it 

Capital punishment for deserters came into play in many wars,  Most countries haven't fought a war in 70+ years certainly not one where they are being killed on such a scale.

In terms of POWs you can't be serious, Ukrainians literally have videos of them shooting dozen or so POWs in the limbs and mutilating and killing some, in the video where they shot at the limbs they supposedly killed any officers and maimed the rest. Show trial in Kiev is no different than a show trial in Donbas except those ion donbas were foreign fighters ,i dont think there are any legal protections for mercenaries. Both sides recorded POWs  on videos making statements that can't be taken as not made under duress will which is against the Geneva conventions. Ukraine had hours of this spread world wide on MSM

Can't take all the propaganda at the face value like this BS , that only hit a snag when NGO's that work with Rape victims showed up in search of these victims and $$ moonlighting in Ukraine couldn't find any.She wasnt dismised because she spread fake shit but because she got caught doing it.

https://mailbd.net/news/former-obdusmen-denisova-explained-why-she-spread-fake-rape-stories-22489/

''For nearly three months, the most prominent media in the political West have been publishing an avalanche of stories which focused on the supposed mass rape Russian soldiers committed against Ukrainian civilians. Once respected media outlets, such as Time magazine, actively report on these fabrications. One such news story, titled "Ukrainians Are Speaking Up About Rape as a War Crime to Ensure the World Holds Russia Accountable", alleged that "25 teenage girls were kept in a basement in Bucha and gang-raped; nine of them are now pregnant. Elderly women spoke on camera about being raped by Russian soldiers. The bodies of children were found naked with their hands tied behind their backs, their genitals mutilated. Those victims included both girls and boys, and Ukrainian men and boys have been sexually assaulted in other incidents. A group of Ukrainian women POWs had their heads shaved in Russian captivity, where they were also stripped naked and forced to squat."

Some brilliant reporting right here.

https://sofrep.com/news/russian-forces-rape-minors-in-ukraine-as-they-eat-stray-dogs-which-ate-russian-corpses/

Initaly war failed because it was planed with absolutely unrealistic assumptions , kind like they just roll into Kiev and hold a parade there and maybe fire a shot or two like in Kazakhstan 

Like you said there is no practical way to occupy Ukraine but Donbas + maybe Kherson possibly parts of Zaporozie can be held , I imagine they will make multiple defensive lines for the long term. and hope that Ukraine loses western backing and is unable to ever retake these regions, so far there doesn't seem to be much insurgent action in these regions.

Yes Russia will likely suffer considerable costs for years or decades over this but , i also don't see anyone willing to finance Ukrainians for foreseeable future, so far we offloaded old mostly soviet junk ,US contractors flecced the taxpayer for 53$ billion to repace old stock (only a tiny fraction of the money actually goes for Ukraine) , and Ukraine is left piling on debt  

Folks are getting tired of Zelensky demanding shit as if anyone owes him orUkraine anything.

With great recession on the horizon, i don't see much of the world suffering self-inflicted economic strain for much longer over Ukraine. Expect lots of noise soon over Gas in EU that needs to be bought and stocked over the Summer for winter. I think folks making the plans greatly underestimated the economic fallout from the sanctions on our own economies.

schnuersi

From: schnuersi

12-Jun

Mr. T (MrT4) said:

Like you said there is no practical way to occupy Ukraine but Donbas + maybe Kherson possibly parts of Zaporozie can be held , I imagine they will make multiple defensive lines for the long term. and hope that Ukraine loses western backing and is unable to ever retake these regions, so far there doesn't seem to be much insurgent action in these regions.

Possibly but this is not really relevant.
Since any kind of negotiations or return to "normal" will be linked to at the very least the return to the status pre February '22. Most likely even the fully recovery of UA territorial integrety will be demanded.

Mr. T (MrT4) said:

i also don't see anyone willing to finance Ukrainians for foreseeable future,

Than you are not looking hard enough. Significant parts of NATO and the EU are very willing and capable of doing that.
The thing is it can not be allowed for Russia to succeed. The results worldwide would be catastrophic and cost oders of magnitudes more. Its also important to keep in mind that investment in defense are good for the internal economy. So this is really mony well spend because there is at least a partially reflux. At one point Ukraine has to be rebuild and there is money in that too.

Mr. T (MrT4) said:

so far we offloaded old mostly soviet junk

You mean like Javeln, NLAW, drones etc? The West has so far supplied a mixture of equipment the UA can actually use. They are being trained on modern western equipment right now and such systems will be deployed in the near future. It takes time. Same with the ramp up or restart of production.

Mr. T (MrT4) said:

Folks are getting tired of Zelensky demanding shit as if anyone owes him orUkraine anything.

Like mentioned above its not about owing UA anything and this BTW is highly controversial concidering the West ignored the danger Russia poses and by this incited Putin. Not to forget that the West basically payed for the attack. Several EU and NATO members also are threatened by Russia.
It will take conciderable time for the support of UA to go down. Most important the West can not and will not allow Russia to succeed.

Mr. T (MrT4) said:

With great recession on the horizon, i don't see much of the world suffering self-inflicted economic strain for much longer over Ukraine. Expect lots of noise soon over Gas in EU that needs to be bought and stocked over the Summer for winter. I think folks making the plans greatly underestimated the economic fallout from the sanctions on our own economies.

There is no great recession on the horizon. Most of the current troubles are still caused by COVID. The lock down in China has more impact on the Western economy than the war in UA. The effect of the sanctions in the West is dimishing over time not increasing because alternative sources are opend. Again it takes some time. Same with the detanglling of the supply chains which started during COVID. This is in direct contrast to Russia for whom the sanctions will get worse over time.

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