Another interesting presentation from Zeihan, posted on YouTube (perhaps appropriately) on May Day.

YouTube

China Is Not Russia and Taiwan Is Not Ukraine | Peter Zeihan

Russia's invasion of Ukraine - the most consequential military conflict Europe has witnessed since the Second World War - has riveted the attention of the wo...

The best place to follow Zeihan is on his Twitter (one of the only Twitters redeeming the platform). He post 'unlisted' youtube clips of his generally a few weeks to a month before they appear on youtube, as well as lots of relevant little articles with commentary on todays events and how they will impact the future:

https://twitter.com/PeterZeihan

In terms of Zeihan, its impressive how accurate many of his 2010 predictions are. 

His China predictions were off (and I think he's consistently underestimating them) but i'd say 2/3-4/5 of the predictions from 2010 have come to pass

https://archive.ph/XJfPP

One segment was especially prescient:

In what way(s) do you think Zeihan is underestimating the Chinese?

I have a whole essay I wrote on it when the subject came up on another forum a few months ago. But I think his core tenant of 'dont worry about China, they're going to collapse on their own' is deeply flawed.

I'll spare you the essay, and heres just the conclusion. 

Zeihan argues that The Global Order is a byproduct of the Cold War, and has been on autopilot post 1991. And now without a Cold War, the US is steadily withdrawing from the world and its allies. 

And once the US withdraws, Asia is going to descend into state sponsored piracy, and China will collapse when its delicate supply chains are interrupted, as its system is already so precarious due to demographics and unsustainable economics.

This is the most glaring flaw in the analysis, because the US is entering Cold War 2, and rather then withdrawing from the world, it is re-engaging.

Russia is back, and there is broad bipartisan support for the US to 'pivot to Asia' in order to Contain China. AUKUS, QUAD, and more to come. #1 question I see on Amazon products is "is this made in China?" Pretty much everyone outside of Wall Street wants the US to put its boot on Chinas neck; Chuck Shumers only praise for Trump was his tough line on China, to give a sense of how bipartisan this is becoming.

Hence a core irony. The US will remain in Asia to Contain China...paradoxically providing the US Naval / Security / Trade presence in Asia that prevents Asia from descending into Piracy and China collapsing into a series of warring states as Zeihan predicts.

gatnerd said:

In terms of Zeihan, its impressive how accurate many of his 2010 predictions are.

Interesting.  If Zeihan's prediction in this video is accurate, things are going to get even more interesting in the near future.

"And so we're going to be in this weird situation of the French asking the Germans to invade Poland, to fight the Russians."

YouTube

Peter Zeihan Says Putin In Total Disbelief As Russian Army Is Capitulating Fast Russia Is Doomed

Peter Zeihan Says Putin In Total Disbelief As Russian Army Is Capitulating Fast Russia Is Doomed

Worth noting is that this video was released recently, but appears that its actually about ~8 years old / 2015 time frame of analysis. 

Ukraines current performance vis a vis Russia I think changes the game as far as Russian predictions goes, at least for the foreseable future.

We also know now that Russias equipment - despite the Modernization - is just not survivable in the face of modern NATO systems. I think that will color any predictions going forward.

gatnerd said:

Worth noting is that this video was released recently, but appears that its actually about ~8 years old...

Ah.  I missed that rather critical bit of info.  Thanks.

Regardless, that line about the French was hilarious.

Okay, this time I'm not 8 years behind.    Zeihan posted this video only a day ago. 

I found the comment @ 4:30 rather intriguing, because it is the first I heard that Javelins had been used primarily against Russian supply trucks.  Has this info been in your Ukraine thread?

Also quite interesting is the prediction @ 8:10

"So, one of two things is going to happen here.  Either the Russians are going to read the map and engage in the most humiliating withdrawal in Russian history.  Or they're going to stand pat and suffer one of the most humiliating military defeats in Russian history."

YouTube

The Beginning of the Fall of Crimea

Over the weekend, the Ukrainians recaptured the city of Kherson from the Russians. A huge strategic win for Ukraine and only the first of many humiliating re...

stancrist said:

rather intriguing, because it is the first I heard that Javelins had been used primarily against Russian supply trucks.  Has this info been in your Ukraine thread?

Its funny, I was about to share this video as well, just watched earlier over dinner.

I haven't established any pattern of truck attacks the Javelins; overall footage of them has been much more limited then Stunga ATGM launches, and most show attacking tanks:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/search/?q=javelin&restrict_sr=1&sr_nsfw=&include_over_18=1

This was the only truck video I found:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/y3mpgr/extended_version_of_an_old_video_russian_truck/

It could be they are just blasting the shit out of trucks with them, but not sharing the video because they're boring (like the above) and may be less inspiring to the population. Or out of concern that the US Taxpayer might become concerned these $150k missiles are being used to "just" target a truck.

...

Somewhere in the Ukraine thread, there was a nice interview with the Aerovenzia(?) drone unit in Ukraine, describing how they both attacked trucks / convoys with drone dropped munitions, or worked in partnership with SF/Comando teams armed with RPGs/LMGs to ambush and destroy trucks. 

...

Overall I imagine Ukraine is blasting whatever they can get into their sights with whatever they have at hand, with the exception perhaps of HIMARS which they are reserving for high / medium value targets.