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Military Guns and Ammunition

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This is intended for people interested in the subject of military guns and their ammunition, with emphasis on automatic weapons.

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LMAO Germany adopts an AR-15   Small Arms <20mm

Started 14/9/20 by QuintusO; 103481 views.
Wessels3

From: Wessels3

6-Mar

Your post is highly thought-provoking. What you are saying about the state of the German defence force, and the time it will take to realise the desired high profile defence posture, of course is also true for the rest of Europe. That means that NATO will largely (completely?) be dependent on the US until that time. 

schnuersi

From: schnuersi

6-Mar

If you think about it its not that much of a supprise.
For comparison think about the state of the Russian military around the turn of the century. How long did it take them to come to the state they are currently in? 10 years? 15 years? How long does it take the Chinese to modernise their military?
10 Years are the timeframe we talk about. IF there is continuous funding available.
The 100 billion € emergency fund also isn't that much if you look at it closely. THe German military is significantly underfunded for more than two decades. 100 billion is roughly equivalent to the funding gap of four years. To come back to the state the military was in at the end of the cold war it would take at least six times as much.

Not all European Countries are in such a poor state. Poland and Turkey to name two large ones are not. The Scandinavian countries also kept their militaries in a better state.

But yes, NATO de facto is an auxillary force for the US. Exept for France wich has limited force projection capabilities on its own. There really is little there.

Wessels3

From: Wessels3

6-Mar

One wonders how the Russian threat profile will develop during this period of European military build up. 

gatnerd

From: gatnerd

6-Mar

Wessels3 said:

One wonders how the Russian threat profile will develop during this period of European military build up

Well with their pretty appalling loses so far in terms of equipment, plus the sanctions, its hard to imagine their military being much improved.

That is unless they become isolated to the point of becoming a sort of super north korea / stalinist russia, and just re-orient their society to a mass re-armament campaign, backed by chinese technology. 

JPeelen

From: JPeelen

6-Mar

I could not agree more. You have hit the nail on the head.

roguetechie

From: roguetechie

6-Mar

I personally expect to start seeing more Chinese stuff show up in Russian hands at some point in the next couple years, especially in areas where Russia is way behind like night vision and IR.

IF

This happens we will actually see the Russians and Chinese both get more capable in the short to midterm. I don't even dare try to predict anything further than 3 years though

Wessels3

From: Wessels3

7-Mar

That is unless they become isolated to the point of becoming a sort of super north korea / stalinist russia, and just re-orient their society to a mass re-armament campaign, backed by chinese technology. 

The Chinese seem to be quiet/semi-neutral up to now, at least on the face of it. China is hugely trade dependent. I expect they are also surprised by the ferociousness of the West's sanctions. Might they not decide to distance themselves from Russia, to avoid the possibilitiy of also becoming targeted by the sanctions?

gatnerd

From: gatnerd

7-Mar

Wessels3 said:

Might they not decide to distance themselves from Russia, to avoid the possibilitiy of also becoming targeted by the sanctions

Absolutely possible. Frankly the geopolitical ramifications for everyone are incredible in terms of possibilities and 3rd order effects going forward. 

We could see China distance itself from Russia, both the avoid santions and to lower the temperature with the US and EU.

We could also see China turn Russia into a Client State similar to Pakistan and Iran, where China provides arms and investment in exchange for energy and resources. 

We might even see China try to heavily re-arm Russia in order to keep up the pressure on NATO and especially the US, in order to divide the US's attention and prevent the US from completing its pivot to Asia / focus entirely on Containing China. 

Wildcard, we could see a coup in Russia following an economic collapse, with a western friendly regime take power. And the US can do what it should have done in 1991 - extend a genuine olive branch to Russia and implement a Marshal Plan 2.0 / work to integrate Russia into the EU and possibly NATO. AKA permanently defeat an enemy by making them a friend, ala Germany and Japan. Then like a buddy movie, we can all team up to contain china together. 

No one knows whats going to happen. But we're in a time of profound change - history has resumed. 

All I think we can say with confidence is that we're likely to see a big bump in defense spending world wide. 

  • Edited 07 March 2022 8:44  by  gatnerd
Wessels3

From: Wessels3

7-Mar

Thanks for the comprehensive answer. 

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