Wessels3 said:

Might they not decide to distance themselves from Russia, to avoid the possibilitiy of also becoming targeted by the sanctions

Absolutely possible. Frankly the geopolitical ramifications for everyone are incredible in terms of possibilities and 3rd order effects going forward. 

We could see China distance itself from Russia, both the avoid santions and to lower the temperature with the US and EU.

We could also see China turn Russia into a Client State similar to Pakistan and Iran, where China provides arms and investment in exchange for energy and resources. 

We might even see China try to heavily re-arm Russia in order to keep up the pressure on NATO and especially the US, in order to divide the US's attention and prevent the US from completing its pivot to Asia / focus entirely on Containing China. 

Wildcard, we could see a coup in Russia following an economic collapse, with a western friendly regime take power. And the US can do what it should have done in 1991 - extend a genuine olive branch to Russia and implement a Marshal Plan 2.0 / work to integrate Russia into the EU and possibly NATO. AKA permanently defeat an enemy by making them a friend, ala Germany and Japan. Then like a buddy movie, we can all team up to contain china together. 

No one knows whats going to happen. But we're in a time of profound change - history has resumed. 

All I think we can say with confidence is that we're likely to see a big bump in defense spending world wide. 

Thanks for the comprehensive answer. 

All I think we can say with confidence is that we're likely to see a big bump in defense spending world wide. 

It seems that Western strategists feel that the two big threats are Russia and China and that the intention is that Russia would be contained by Europe, once Europe has upscaled sufficiently, while the US, aided by Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, etc. would (try to) keep China in check. 

Chinese NV for Russian jet engines?

Wessels3 said:

It seems that Western strategists feel that the two big threats are Russia and China and that the intention is that Russia would be contained by Europe, once Europe has upscaled sufficiently, while the US, aided by Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, etc. would (try to) keep China in check

Thats the vibe I've been getting as well.

The 'Abraham Accords' in the middle east was part of this goal to free up attention for China. Basically pave the way to create a security/economic allaince/bloc with Israel + Sunni Middle East where they can all work together to contain Iran and police their neighborhood, with the US providing an overall backstop in terms of political, intelligence, and military assistance. 

No doubt the US would love to see NATO (continental nato aka EU) shift into that direction. EU forces provide boots on the ground / primary combat force vis a vis Russia, while the US provides overall coordination and specialized capabilities (Surveillance, Intel, Space based assets, logistics, shared US warstocks of PGM's, Stealth strike aircraft, etc). But in terms of US boots on the ground, just serve as 'bailout' force to intervene should NATO be overwhelmed. 

However thats a ways off, and the US does not currently have a solidified bipartisan Grand Strategy the way it did during the Cold War. 

Farmplinker said:

Chinese NV for Russian jet engines

Thats possible. I was thinking a more basic 'fur for muskets' arrangement would be done though if China decides to try and re-arm Russia as a decoy proxyforce.

XYZ quantity of Oil or Nat Gas for XYZ quantity of weapons (Drones, PGM's, etc). 

In terms of how the $100 Billion from Germany may be spent (rifles are indeed not the top priority):

Twitter

Georg Löfflmann on Twitter

100 billion Euros for the Bundeswehr. But what does Germany actually plan to buy with all that money? Well, let's t... https://t.co/FZVJWmxq0f

Read more from Twitter

https://twitter.com/gloefflmann/status/1500482982825635842

Hj12 red dragons showing up in quantity on the back of Russian uaz patriots manned by guys in chicryes with chinese level 4 plates could get extremely spicy pretty quickly.

Also the Chinese seem to be pushing hard towards digital NV which they are equipped to drown the west's enemies In should they make a breakthrough.

All around we're looking at pretty scary times ahead...

For example, did you know that Ukraine is a positively shocking amount of the west's semiconductor grade neon supply? (I've seen numbers between 70&90%)

Then there's the food and fertilizer situation which is... Very concerning.

While I can understand the focus on defense budgets especially here, we could be looking at a situation where all the defense spending in the world could be moot fairly easily.

I would love to see a direct MG42 successor

manimal87 said:

I would love to see a direct MG42 successor

Thats actually what Germany and Austria use - the MG3:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MG_3_machine_gun