Moving it all back West? No. Some to other Asian countries, some to the US, some to Middle East and Latin America. China will manufacture a lot, but the era of rapid growth for it is over.

I'll give you an example of what we're seeing here in the U.S.. Where I work, we export a lot of casting molds and cores to Mexico. The Mexican foundries have American contracts/owners. The castings are produced in Mexico, but often used in the U.S..

More of the 'Ukraine Effect' - the US now doing multi year, high volume contracts for munitions. Previously it was done on an unpredictable year to year boom and bust cycle that prevented contractors from fully investing and optimizing production lines. 

Some of these purchases are massive. While most will go to the US,  and some are no doubt slated for Ukraine, I imagine more then a few are going to become 'stocking stuffers' for Taiwan. Especially the Harpoons.

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These are still amateur numbers, especially if we're talking about deterring China.

Still, it's a good start.

Well in terms of more China focused munitions, this is also happening:

I think in the next few years, the kinetic aspect of deterrence will be pretty solid.

The big issue is economic, and there the US has a long way to go. Right now huge swathes of the US economy is dependent on Chinese imports of retail consumer products. Millions, possibly over 10 million, jobs are tied up in selling these Chinese widgets. Theres also chemical precursors for medicine etc that were foolishly of shored that would be bad to do without... 

When the first missile is fired in defense of Taiwan, thats all over. And that sort of economic dependency and destruction greatly curtails the deterrent effect.

The US needs to further increase industrial policy to create a ABC - "Anywhere But China" - Supply chain. The US should impose +1% tariffs per month on Chinese imports, with the goal of ending all imports of Chinese goods over the next decade. And the money raised from those tariffs, plus loans, should be offered to any company relocating their manufacturing to another country. 

It should also develop policies to create a sort of "Freedom Trade" to encourage manufacturing and better economic links with allies in the Pacific and Europe. (IE encourage US Steel manufacturers to buy Australian iron ore instead of ore from Brazil, etc.) 

Fortunately, we're starting to do what you mentioned. Like I told Mr. T4, my employer sends a lot of product to Mexico, to make components that are used by American companies. (After 30 years, North American free trade is working like it was supposed to!)

As for precursor chemicals, possibly India as a China substitute, if they can get their QC up. Frankly, we need a Chemicals Initiative for our industrial policy.  Support R&D, and crush the NIMBY/BANANA legal-industrial complex so plants can be built, and actually make products. (Energetics for artillery are a good first step.)

Farmplinker said:

As for precursor chemicals, possibly India as a China substitute, if they can get their QC up

Relocating chemical production to Germany would have been ideal, as they are the world leaders in chemical production.

But one of the many tragedies of the war in Ukraine is its effect on German industry, which really relied on plentiful cheep natural gas from Russia.

Most of their chemical precursors are derived from breaking down natural gas into various chemical sub compounds. Without tons of cheap gas, thats all in peril. 

https://www.ft.com/content/50a462b3-0e8b-49e1-873c-9505760d4a66

Now BASF is looking to build a new chemical complex - in China. 

...

Mexico might be a good choice. It would negate the NIMBY factor, and its partially tied into the US natural gas supply. Plus more jobs in mexico serves as its own sort of 'wall' to reduce illegal immigration. 

I'd love us to get more petrochemical plant here in the Ohio Valley. Lots of natural gas, and due to pipeline constraints, limited out of area exports. So cheap. Close to most US (and probably Canadian) polymer production. Good cost of living.

But a lot of NIMBY/BANANA, alas.

gatnerd said:

Most of their chemical precursors are derived from breaking down natural gas into various chemical sub compounds. Without tons of cheap gas, thats all in peril. 

That is so yesterdays news ;)
For starters the first LNG tankers arrived so there is plenty of gas again. The entire gas shortage has been inflated and really only made a problem by politicians paniking. The supply is not in danger. The price for gas has dropped down to a reasonable level. Not as low as pre war but below problematic.
At the same time the major cheamical plants allready have or are in the process of switching their processes from natural gas as raw material to H2. This has been planned for a long time anyways to achieve CO2 neutral products. They just accellerated the plans.
For the German industry (and the nation as a whole) the war in UA is a good thing in the long run. It shaked a lot of things loose, woke people up and put things back into perspective. We se more change, modernisation and improvement in Germany since February than we had during the entire Merkel administration. When the war ends things will have to be rebuild... guess who is allready fist in line to do it.

schnuersi said:

That is so yesterdays news ;) For starters the first LNG tankers arrived so there is plenty of gas again. The entire gas shortage has been inflated and really only made a problem by politicians paniking. The supply is not in danger. The price for gas has dropped down to a reasonable level. Not as low as pre war but below problematic.

Thats wonderful to hear. I had read that FT article this morning and was pretty bummed out, it made things seem quite dire. 

In terms of H2, most of that is sourced currently from Nat Gas. And also H2 is much harder to work for a number of factors. Where is Germany going to source a bunch of Hydrogen from if not nat gas? 

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/12/07/britain-ramps-up-anti-tank-weapon-production-to-refill-stocks/

https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2022/12/07/ukraine-war-validates-key-principles-of-new-marine-unit-in-pacific/