Okay, this time I'm not 8 years behind.    Zeihan posted this video only a day ago. 

I found the comment @ 4:30 rather intriguing, because it is the first I heard that Javelins had been used primarily against Russian supply trucks.  Has this info been in your Ukraine thread?

Also quite interesting is the prediction @ 8:10

"So, one of two things is going to happen here.  Either the Russians are going to read the map and engage in the most humiliating withdrawal in Russian history.  Or they're going to stand pat and suffer one of the most humiliating military defeats in Russian history."

YouTube

The Beginning of the Fall of Crimea

Over the weekend, the Ukrainians recaptured the city of Kherson from the Russians. A huge strategic win for Ukraine and only the first of many humiliating re...

stancrist said:

rather intriguing, because it is the first I heard that Javelins had been used primarily against Russian supply trucks.  Has this info been in your Ukraine thread?

Its funny, I was about to share this video as well, just watched earlier over dinner.

I haven't established any pattern of truck attacks the Javelins; overall footage of them has been much more limited then Stunga ATGM launches, and most show attacking tanks:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/search/?q=javelin&restrict_sr=1&sr_nsfw=&include_over_18=1

This was the only truck video I found:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/y3mpgr/extended_version_of_an_old_video_russian_truck/

It could be they are just blasting the shit out of trucks with them, but not sharing the video because they're boring (like the above) and may be less inspiring to the population. Or out of concern that the US Taxpayer might become concerned these $150k missiles are being used to "just" target a truck.

...

Somewhere in the Ukraine thread, there was a nice interview with the Aerovenzia(?) drone unit in Ukraine, describing how they both attacked trucks / convoys with drone dropped munitions, or worked in partnership with SF/Comando teams armed with RPGs/LMGs to ambush and destroy trucks. 

...

Overall I imagine Ukraine is blasting whatever they can get into their sights with whatever they have at hand, with the exception perhaps of HIMARS which they are reserving for high / medium value targets. 

I think don't worry china will collapse on it's own is deeply flawed too but for other reasons than others.

It doesn't matter if china collapses so long as it collapsed AFTER we do, and we are collapsing 

"China will collapse" sells better than "China will be number two, and limited to its own backyard".

stancrist said:

...quite interesting is the prediction @ 8:10 "So, one of two things is going to happen here.  Either the Russians are going to read the map and engage in the most humiliating withdrawal in Russian history.  Or they're going to stand pat and suffer one of the most humiliating military defeats in Russian history."

Zeihan seems to be changing his tune.  Now he says Russia will never quit trying to conquer Ukraine.

Not only that, he thinks the war is just beginning and at some point Russia will inevitably attack NATO.

YouTube

Peter Zeihan - The Ukraine War Is Just Getting Started

Click this link for the fixed audio version - https://youtu.be/v5x9PMlhvxA Perhaps the scariest takeaway from the Ukraine War is that it's just beginning. To...

stancrist said:

Zeihan seems to be changing his tune.  Now he says Russia will never quit trying to conquer Ukraine. Not only that, he thinks the war is just beginning and at some point Russia will inevitably attack NATO

I think Zeihan is broadly accurate in many of his predictions, but I don't think he's infallible. (see my earlier zeihan china critique)

I do think the war is far from over, and we're likely to see much more fighting. Really I don't see it ending unless Ukraine is able to smash Russias invasion supply chains with ATACMS or similar. 

However I think his notion that Russia is going to be rolling into Poland and Romania under a tac nuke umbrella is absurd.

gatnerd said:

However I think his notion that Russia is going to be rolling into Poland and Romania under a tac nuke umbrella is absurd.

I am mostly finding Zeihan absurd TBH. But I am having a feeling that Russia may refuse to admit defeat, even if they are getting thrown back into the borders of 2014.

graylion said:

I am mostly finding Zeihan absurd TBH

His plausabilty varies widely depending on the subject. 

His discussion 3 days earlier on the limits of solar power for example is perfectly cogent and believable (and sadly overlooked by the news.)

YouTube

Peter Zeihan - The Solar Power Problem(s)

For solar power to make sense, there's one non-negotiable component...and yes, it's that bright, shiny thing in the sky - the sun. But just because your plan...

These are generally the subjects I follow him for. 

I think trying to predict the near future vs general trends is much trickier. And whether ideologically or marketingly, he tends to veer toward the extremes when discussing geopolitics. 

That's what I've seen with zeihan too...

He appears to have some noticeable blind spots, one that seem to line up with the blind spots of western leadership wrt our likely opponents.

gatnerd said:

I think Zeihan is broadly accurate in many of his predictions, but I don't think he's infallible.

Certainly.  I didn't mean to give the impression that I was criticizing him for the apparent change.  I just thought it was interesting.

One theme that has not changed (in the videos I've seen) is the premise that Russians want to gain control of all the access points.

I wonder if that is merely his opinion, or if Russian leaders are actually so paranoid that they're willing to start wars over the issue?

If the Russians truly are that irrational and psychotic, it may be that the only way to stop their aggressive acts is to end their nation.