This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.
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fsy, I just don't know about Vino. I have found him suspect in many ways and like a friend says, they took the path of least resistance with him. I didn't even like his Wood, so.....
Yet scared to leave him off ticket of course.
On for September in Glenville; place I've stayed at in the past that is useful for fishing and safe, heavy drinking. Although I fight it, food is okay.
I've never been lucky enough to fish Moriches but have been told it can be a productive fishery. Good to hear Giacomo is well. I spent a day on Moriches a number of years back on a 36 foot catalina with the jib wrapped...nice day with only the main needed. There is much water there and a decent chop if I recall; a whaler with any kicker is a great choice. I thought about picking up a small whaler a few years back but too many obstructions that don't work well with fiberglass; especially when Georgia holds back water and the lake levels takes a hit.
Tenfold's sire makes him a player; just not ready to jump on board with that API/SC bottom nick. Just about all of them should be done early so backing a Curlin boy ain't a bad thing.
Not that high on Vino Rosso's bottom but against my grain to not include a MrP somewhere. He ran in both the Sam Davis and Tampa Bay Derby with a 9th in the Derby. Not the best numbers but Davis runners in the Belmont are 14-1-4-1-0 and those that ran in the Sam Davis and/or the Tampa Bay Derby are 24-1-4-1-3. Interesting that 10 more runners in the Tampa Bay Derby could only add 3 fourths in the Belmont. Tough to shut out all the MrP's, regardless of the legs they ran heading into the long one.
All three MrP's will be included in my big box, but I would probably pass on Blended and Tenfold if I could only use a few. Go Blended and Tenfold!!
I'm a person who "feels luck coming on" and the year tonalist / Commish I could not wait to get to the track to place my wager. My mom had given me 1-11 and that was also my street address at the time, but I had been waiting for Commish to run in a race, because that pedigree was killler.
I have not felt that way this TC season, nor last TC season, so I am not real excited. As a matter of fact, over last 3-4 years my horse racing profits have been quite dismal. I dunno if that's a reflection of my "inner attitude" about U.S. racing coloring my subconscious or what....I think that is part of it. Some kind of joy/bliss has gone out of it and probably affects my picks. (I still do well at Oaklawn but more like trading money for 4 months, whiich is okay cuz as a recreational pursuit I love love love going to the track and as long as I can pay my way and get some food and drink in the bargain, plus a great day outdoors, I'm happy!)
When I have won big things (not just horse races) it has often been "I don't feel like leaving the house", but then at last minute something says "you have to go and go now!" and usually that premonition is correct.
I once did not get on an elevator in NYC and also moved out of a rent house I was renting w/others while in college, and the inhabitants of both were dead w/in 2 weeks (elevator shaft malfunction/gas water heater malfunction while everyone was asleep).
I have very good premonitions for some reason, when and if they come. It's just that they only come rarely, and I guess that's okay.
I've never been there but I imagine that September is a very good time for it.
Speaking of fishing, I've been flip-flopping (like one springing out the cooler onto the dock) more than usual over this Belmont. Especially in terms of whether I even want to bet the darn thing. I have a lot of respect for Justify & I toyed with the idea of keying him in a super & wheeling 6 horses around him. I may still do that because I cannot imagine J. running 5th or worse.
Or, go really economical with a 4 horse exacta/trifecta box as I mentioned somewhere on this thread. Anyway, there's no reason for me to even think about it until Saturday. I do want to see how the rain comes down & how the track is playing.
Moriches is still very good though not as good as it once was. Even when the fishing is poor, the beauty of the bay endures. I'm no purist. I had a spinning rod rigged with a Hopkins jig with a treble hook dressed with a white bucktail that the blues were hitting. However, for the fluke I had an boat rod with my workhorse Penn reel...live killies with a long squid strip...oh yeah. Even during slack tide with a slow troll, they work.
Giacomo wants a show bet on Gronk but not a 12/1. No, he needs 20 at least. ;)
It is uncanny how T2's (Gronkowski) fill that show spot in the Belmont. I always build a ticket keying a T2 in 3rd...even if they are dragging their nose and show a slight limp in the post parade. Should Justify run 4th, I'd take show money on any of them, especially Gronk!
Thanks, good luck to you, too. I guess I'll try to sprinkle in some Gronk, hopefully he will play at more realistic odds in the exotics. I'd feel better about him if he had a different branch on top.
So you are fine with the Mt Livermore(BG) sitting there as 2nd bms? That does not look good to me.
He didn't look good when he was Flashy Bull's bms; nothing has changed. His T2 line, Sir Gaylord, is 4-0-0-0-0 in the Belmont; his 9-f conduit, Germicide is D: 2-0-0-0-0; P: 1-0-0-0-0; B: 0-0-0-0-0; C: 0-0-0-0-0. His x/MRP/MRP/x up the middle doesn't do much for me and they robbed the cradle to get his dam which was still growing.
I don't give him much of a chance if any to run in the top four but I'll still do a ticket keying him in 3rd just for the heck of it. T2 in the Belmont is 54-4-3-11-4 with 5 of the last 6 T2 runners finishing 3rd. Rock Hard Ten finished 5th in 2004; had he been a sport he should have been in a dead heat with a fellow T2 for 3rd by the name of Royal Assault.
Ready's Echo, by lines, is about the closest to Gronk but at least RE had some bottom to him. He dead heated with Anak Nakal eight lengths back so who knows.
I've decided now on who/how I will play. I will key Justify but also play Tenfold to win. Underneath I'll play Noble Indy, Vino Rosso, Restoring Hope, FDB and Gronkowski. I'm omitting Hofburg and Bravazo entirely. The only way to make money on this super if Justify wins is to play all long shots underneath.