This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.
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I'm a person who "feels luck coming on" and the year tonalist / Commish I could not wait to get to the track to place my wager. My mom had given me 1-11 and that was also my street address at the time, but I had been waiting for Commish to run in a race, because that pedigree was killler.
I have not felt that way this TC season, nor last TC season, so I am not real excited. As a matter of fact, over last 3-4 years my horse racing profits have been quite dismal. I dunno if that's a reflection of my "inner attitude" about U.S. racing coloring my subconscious or what....I think that is part of it. Some kind of joy/bliss has gone out of it and probably affects my picks. (I still do well at Oaklawn but more like trading money for 4 months, whiich is okay cuz as a recreational pursuit I love love love going to the track and as long as I can pay my way and get some food and drink in the bargain, plus a great day outdoors, I'm happy!)
When I have won big things (not just horse races) it has often been "I don't feel like leaving the house", but then at last minute something says "you have to go and go now!" and usually that premonition is correct.
I once did not get on an elevator in NYC and also moved out of a rent house I was renting w/others while in college, and the inhabitants of both were dead w/in 2 weeks (elevator shaft malfunction/gas water heater malfunction while everyone was asleep).
I have very good premonitions for some reason, when and if they come. It's just that they only come rarely, and I guess that's okay.
I've never been there but I imagine that September is a very good time for it.
Speaking of fishing, I've been flip-flopping (like one springing out the cooler onto the dock) more than usual over this Belmont. Especially in terms of whether I even want to bet the darn thing. I have a lot of respect for Justify & I toyed with the idea of keying him in a super & wheeling 6 horses around him. I may still do that because I cannot imagine J. running 5th or worse.
Or, go really economical with a 4 horse exacta/trifecta box as I mentioned somewhere on this thread. Anyway, there's no reason for me to even think about it until Saturday. I do want to see how the rain comes down & how the track is playing.
Moriches is still very good though not as good as it once was. Even when the fishing is poor, the beauty of the bay endures. I'm no purist. I had a spinning rod rigged with a Hopkins jig with a treble hook dressed with a white bucktail that the blues were hitting. However, for the fluke I had an boat rod with my workhorse Penn reel...live killies with a long squid strip...oh yeah. Even during slack tide with a slow troll, they work.
Giacomo wants a show bet on Gronk but not a 12/1. No, he needs 20 at least. ;)
It is uncanny how T2's (Gronkowski) fill that show spot in the Belmont. I always build a ticket keying a T2 in 3rd...even if they are dragging their nose and show a slight limp in the post parade. Should Justify run 4th, I'd take show money on any of them, especially Gronk!
Thanks, good luck to you, too. I guess I'll try to sprinkle in some Gronk, hopefully he will play at more realistic odds in the exotics. I'd feel better about him if he had a different branch on top.
So you are fine with the Mt Livermore(BG) sitting there as 2nd bms? That does not look good to me.
He didn't look good when he was Flashy Bull's bms; nothing has changed. His T2 line, Sir Gaylord, is 4-0-0-0-0 in the Belmont; his 9-f conduit, Germicide is D: 2-0-0-0-0; P: 1-0-0-0-0; B: 0-0-0-0-0; C: 0-0-0-0-0. His x/MRP/MRP/x up the middle doesn't do much for me and they robbed the cradle to get his dam which was still growing.
I don't give him much of a chance if any to run in the top four but I'll still do a ticket keying him in 3rd just for the heck of it. T2 in the Belmont is 54-4-3-11-4 with 5 of the last 6 T2 runners finishing 3rd. Rock Hard Ten finished 5th in 2004; had he been a sport he should have been in a dead heat with a fellow T2 for 3rd by the name of Royal Assault.
Ready's Echo, by lines, is about the closest to Gronk but at least RE had some bottom to him. He dead heated with Anak Nakal eight lengths back so who knows.
I've decided now on who/how I will play. I will key Justify but also play Tenfold to win. Underneath I'll play Noble Indy, Vino Rosso, Restoring Hope, FDB and Gronkowski. I'm omitting Hofburg and Bravazo entirely. The only way to make money on this super if Justify wins is to play all long shots underneath.
If Justify loses, it will be to either Hofburg or Tenfold IMHO. I just don't think Justify will lose.
In his case for me it is all about running in all three legs and being a P/P/P/P. Those that won the first two legs and ran in the Belmont: American Pharoah, Charismatic, Funny Cide and California Chrome.
P/P/P/P's that ran in all three legs and won the Belmont: American Pharoah and Afleet Alex.
Of the 109 Storm Cat's to fill a triple crown gate through this year's Preakness, only two have run with 20 dosage points. Justify and the first one, Tabasco Cat 6/1/1.
Been awhile since we've had a MRP/NP/P/NP. Blended Citizen is going to mess up some pretty solid stats if he doesn't at least run in the super.
08-2-0-2-3 (1992-2003); tired boy War Emblem finished 8th. Four of those eight were new shooters with two 3rds and two 4ths. Unshaded picked up a 3rd after a decent run getting a 2nd in the Peter Pan. Wish he had a different ND under him but still might be good enough; won't be using him on any straight tickets--box ticket only.