This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.
Latest 6/16/18 by smartyslew
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thanks, Calvin fit Mine that bird and he got lost!
Looked up Frey the other day. He started riding in 2010 at GG, only a few mounts. Looks like he moved his tack to Pennsylvania, riding PRX & PEN & had his best year, winning the eclipse for top apprentice. He bounces around east to west. I suppose he's been staying west lately.
Things changed after he lost his bug. Journeyman to this day.
He did get a tour of part of the Belmont main in the Pan & rode well.
Jocks get lost on the backstretch & then misjudge the turn for home, is how it usually happens. By the time you hit the middle of the backstretch you still have to ride another 6 furlongs.
Or, misread the poles.
Hearing of him isn't a concern, at least for me. As long as he can 'see' far enough to sit off all these 'experienced' jocks that have thrown in their share of bones, he can draft off of Mikey or any of the other great ones. At some point, he'll still need the horse to get it done.
The list of "great" riders & Hall Of Fame riders who got lost out there is longer than my arm (and maybe both arms) in the great history of the grand old track.
No, I intend to use Citizen/Frey because I believe the horse is sitting on a big effort. Anyone who uses hi just has to hope the horse doesn't run like Citizen Kane. :)
My last thoughts before I do my wager construction, I'm not sold on Blended Citizen at all. I was looking at Restoring Hope's conformation, if he is not used as a sacrafice, those long legs look pretty dangerous to me. He's "gangly" and I like ganglies (Zenyatta)
I'll be using him as well. I like runners that look great and also look terrible along the way. Most bettors look elsewhere which is fine. Still wish he had a better broodmare sire but he'll do since his s/bms nick has had 10 winners which is tops all time if you use RAN/ND...which also include MRP/ND, RAN/SC and MRP/SC. I separate MRP out of RAN since RAN didn't contribute to the those 10 winners.
Hofburg and Noble Indy's nick has one winner in Rags To Riches. I separate API out from BR but I guess the BR/ND will do with SC thrown in.
Vino Rosso has an interesting dosage index if you are looking for Belmont winners with a DI between 3.54 to 3.99. Riva Ridge came in at 3.53 and Thunder Gulch at 4.00. Only one Belmont winner in Vino's range and that was Jaipur...plenty tried.
As I mentioned, Blended Citizen could figure it out going long(er) but he is also a candidate for the back end. Only three previous MRP/HYP/ND/xx in the TC. Thunder Gulch, Court Vision and The Cliffs Edge. Thunder Gulch gave the Belmont a try...did okay. Only one x/HYP/ND/BOIS in the TC. Sarava gave the Belmont a try and did okay.
good luck to you and Giacomo whether you go big or small.
Just watch a video by Christian Hellmers. His questioning will make one want to back off this race or completely pass. BB seems to get horses to run farther than one would expect. Recent uptick in late developers the last few years.
edit to add tonalist was positive on every angle except “O” points in 4th wing of dosage profile
and the rf but he had a 7sx4d some go that far for rf"s.
Thanks! Same to you, of course.
The two horses I'm not using that seem to have garnered some support are Bambino Bravazo who could get a dream trip sitting off Justify & Vino Repole who may get the special Ziti Rigati Marinara. Ha!
I'm going to play small especially after Giacomo commented that I should worry more that Citizen might run like Orson Welles, never mind the relatively swift Citizen Kane.