Horse Racing Forum

Hosted by Cindy Dulay (CindyDulay)

This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.

  • 353
    MEMBERS
  • 19606
    MESSAGES
  • 0
    POSTS TODAY

Discussions

Belmont post positions   Triple Crown

Started 6/5/18 by Oldbettowin; 5425 views.
PISTOL9

From: PISTOL9

6/8/18

Just watch a video by Christian Hellmers.  His questioning will make one want to back off this race or completely pass.  BB seems to get horses to run farther than one would expect.   Recent uptick in late developers the last few years.

  • Edited June 8, 2018 4:13 pm  by  PISTOL9
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/8/18

splits for some preps:
preakness splits
justify
23.11
4f  47.19  6f 1.11.42   mile  1.36.10.  1.55.93
------------ 24.23-------------- 24.68----19.83   final Q 26.00
bravado
23.43
4f   47.60  6f 1.12.02  mile  1.37.11   1.56.13
--------------24.42-------------25.09*---19.02     final Q 25.29
* took a break that Q second race in a row stop and go style
---
tenfold
23.64
4f  47.82  6f 1.12.43   mile  1.36.80    1.56.15
-------------- 24.61-----------24.37------19.35   final Q 25.45
bumped in foggy conditions, look at replays, 2 reliable sources gave me a heads up
and i haven't  researched it. slowed his mo
------------
sporting chance-------------------------------- 1.58.30+
---------------------------------------------------------
Blended Cit.      peter pan stks
24.25      47.39     1.11.73    1.37.08       1.49.75   1/8 12.67   last Q 25.35
---------
hofburg          derby = terrible conditions for most
brushed at start, steadied  twice 13th at mile marker 17.5+l behind  1.40.6 
7th finish 8.75 lengths back   2.05.95 last Q 25.35
passed vino rosso after 8f, passed free drop billy before 8f,
noble indy ran 5th early then passed by others and  backed up finished 17th
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/8/18

edit to add tonalist  was positive on every angle except  “O” points in 4th wing of dosage profile
and the rf but he had a 7sx4d some go that far for rf"s.

i got this much done for pedigree pts
not enough time for cmp data.score this if interested.
---
score a positive pt for a contender if his name isn't listed
in a negative angle
--
sires bm sire cd over .90--1 negative pt
free drop billy 1,25, gronkowski 1,26, justify 1.04
tenfold .93. vino rosso .93
-------
sires bm sire di above 3.25--1 negative pt
free drop billy 4.25, gronkowski 6,20, justify 3.95
noble indy 3.80,tenfold 3.67, vino rosso 3.67
---
dams bm sire di above 3.00--1 negative pt
free drop billy 4.78,justify 3.16,restoring hope 3.16
...[Message truncated]
View Full Message
SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

6/8/18

Thanks!  Same to you, of course. 

The two horses I'm not using that seem to have garnered some support are Bambino Bravazo who could get a dream trip sitting off Justify & Vino Repole who may get the special Ziti Rigati Marinara.  Ha!

I'm going to play small especially after Giacomo commented that I should worry more that Citizen might run like Orson Welles, never mind the relatively swift Citizen Kane.

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

6/8/18

Like I said to Prince, I'm not itching to play it.  Going small & using J. as one of the 4 just for fun.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/8/18

i had time to do a few performance angles and i was surprised
maybe because of to many off track races.trying to get an idea, i don't think this helps much
a couple of these angles are hard for forward placed horses to qualify for, like last Q
---
performace points
-
justify 10
blended citizen  9
tenfold 9
bravazo   8
gronkowski 3
hofburg 3
noble indy 3
vino rosso 3
free drop billy 2
restoring hope
--
fivestaryak

From: fivestaryak

6/8/18

Thanks, Robm.  Blended Citizen (MRP/HYP/ND/BOIS) with no stamina chefs, especially with Langfuhrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr is a tough one.  Should be interesting since he is from that nick with 9 winners (MRP/ND) or 10 if you want to throw in (MRP/SC) and both Thunder Gulch (MRP/HYP/ND/x) and Sarava (x/HYP/ND/BOIS) previous winners with no stamina chefs.

Tapit/P or Tapit/ND is some concern...he'll need to keep bringing those NP bms with decent dam families.  

Interesting bunch...even if the big one doesn't finish it off.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/8/18

any sire have more than 3 winners of the belmont ?

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/8/18

see if you can learn anything from this for the tapit concern'
8 generation female linebreeding
compare it to the 8 gen male linebreeding and look and note at the 5 gen. pedigree

TAPWRIT C, 2014 DP = 6-9-12-1-0 (28) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.71
Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood% Influence AGR
SOMETHINGROYAL
...[Message truncated]
View Full Message
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/8/18

you know how bad the nor dan /br nick is for the derby, look at something royal and natalma
they are not compatible in the belmont . if hofburg wins he will be the first for this angle.

Something Royal and natalma and/or  her dam almahmoud have never been 
on the same chart for this angle for a belmont winners chart. Hofburg has all 3 toss for the win
style is ok for itm, since 1900 gallant man is the only belmont winner with a higher percentage 5.42 %
than hofburgs 5.314% but gallant mans who is good to go. 1957 winner
toss free drop billy for the same angle, but with these 2 contenders like crest says, one of these days
hofburg has some positve females besides S royal,aspidistra, knights daughter, la troienne
could be one of those days.
HOFBURG C, 2015 DP = 6-11-16-1-0 (34) DI = 2.78   CD = 0.65
Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood% Influence AGR
NATALMA
...[Message truncated]
View Full Message
TOP