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Observations / facts about Derby horses   Triple Crown

Started Apr-18 by Wintertrian; 7458 views.
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Apr-18

Just give your pros or cons. Little tidbits like this may help others find or cement horses in their lists. I'll start (with horses I happen to like, of course. :) )  This could be a really fun, edifying topic. 

 
Code of Honor - ITM  FL Derby, Fountain of Youth, Champagne, and his maiden (2 G1s and 1 G2 + maiden) and working bullets consistently since mid December

Tax - 103, 102, and 101 Brisnet speed figs, all at 1-1/8th miles. Only horse in race w/this. 

Improbable - does he hate blinkers?

War of Will - ran 2 G1s, 2 G2s,and 2 G3s.  Won 3 of them, placed in 1 of them. 
Only graded stakes he did really bad in was the one where he slipped at the start (LA Derby), one on Turf, and the Bourbon G3.
Most experienced graded stakes horse in the race.  

In reply toRe: msg 1
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Apr-18

Win Win Win - 4 Belmont Winners and 5 KY Derby winners in his pedigree if I counted right. 

 

Gerh

From: Gerh

Apr-18

Looking at Brisnet ratings ,they have Vekoma ranked number 1 in prime power.What am I missing?

After the Tampa Bay Derby ,Bill Mott said that if he thought he had to he could give Tacitus 2 more preps. Shows how durable he thinks the horse is.

Just a gut feeling but I expect Code of Honor to flourish at Churchill

could Spinoff be another Danza ?

In reply toRe: msg 3
PISTOL9

From: PISTOL9

Apr-18

Vekoma, it is probably because of graded stakes, figs in those, recency. trends,....  Not much difference from others, .4 from next in line.  They have many factors in there prime numbers.  

Is Claiborne like Ramsey, and likes to win meet titles, ... at any cost?  How often do you see no MrP? twice

ChiefsCrown

From: ChiefsCrown

Apr-19

Winter.....

Just an opinionated Good Friday...I see you have Tax up on your list and not Tacitus. Interesting Tax couldn't get by Tacitus in the Wood???

I'm lukewarm on Tax. I think Long Range Toddy might be a legit closer being overlooked in the derby. 

I think the top two preps, Arkansas and Santa Anita Derby will produce the superfecta this year.

Improbable, Long Range Toddy, Omaha Beach and Game Winner....JMO!

Have a Happy Easter!!!

chroses

From: chroses

Apr-19

Improbable - does he hate blinkers?

I heard Baffert say he was going to take them off

cubs.fan

From: cubs.fan

Apr-19

Messing around with equipment between the final prep and the Derby... that's a negative. Can't recall any recent successes doing that.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Apr-19

cubs.fan said...

Messing around with equipment between the final prep and the Derby... that's a negative. Can't recall any recent successes doing that

yeah, that scares me. 

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Apr-19

ChiefsCrown said...

ust an opinionated Good Friday...I see you have Tax up on your list and not Tacitus. Interesting Tax couldn't get by Tacitus in the Wood???

One race. If I liked Tacitus a lot he would be one to play w/p/s as he has very good speed figs
There are a number of reasons I just like Tax better.  For one, the odds will be quite better as the east coaster contingent will hammer Tacitus down, deep pockets there.  I don't like Tacitus enough for the WIN to take lower odds.  

In terms of Bris Prime Power and Backspeed, they are about even. Tacitus is speedier than Tax but not by much. I just like that Tax has 3 double digit bris speed figs and all in graded stakes above 1-1/8th miles.  That to me is a proven entity.  Tacitus has 1 such figure in 1 graded stakes race at 1-1/8.  Just not enough to go on for me. 

I also like horses who show speed and talent at an early age (BSF above 90) and who have won or placed at BEL or CDX at 2.  That would be Tax for me. 

Tacitus has the better trainer most likely.   Breeders, well you can't argue with either Clairborne or Juddamonte.......one has Blame, Lea and Elate, the other has Arrogate, Flintshire, etc.  

Really, for me, these 2 were very hard to separate.  I will have to watch works at CDX and see how they look in coming 2 weeks. 

Neither one are my "top top" and neither look to have the best final fractions.

 

ChiefsCrown

From: ChiefsCrown

Apr-19

Winter...

Who's your top horse for this race before the post pos. draw? You might have talked me into a bet using Tax in a trifecta.

I like Vekoma but that paddle motion really bugs me. Especially if he gets into traffic. Seems like he'd bang legs with a close running horse.

Not a Baffert fan but i do like Improbable here, he's seems to be getting the least hype of the Baffert 3!

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