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Derby Works   Triple Crown

Started Apr-20 by SameSteve G; 7266 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-20

Game winners work was 5f  ran wider than Roadster

Roadster broke from the gate in company and of course his 6f work was closer to the rail

Game Winner's work was easier for me to see and his front legs looked like they were

reaching further in a natural way,

my eyesight couldn't see the other 2 works very good, to dark

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

Apr-20

Roadster has a naturally shorter stride than Game Winner.

61 strides for Roadster from the 1/4 pole to the finish.

55 strides for Game Winner, same distance.

Just a data point to consider in terms of energy expenditure.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-20

Anything to the gate drill 6f for Roadster?

is it playing catchup because he's behind in works or a strategy for the Derby or both.

Thanks for the stride info, it kinda confirms my lying eyes!!!

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

Apr-20

The only race Roadster had trouble at the gate was his maiden win.  So, I'm not reading anything into the gate work other than what it is.

My instinct is that 10 f. will be outside Roadster's scope, even with Bafferto being a master of stretching out his runners.

I like his other two better.

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Apr-21

These horses generally work well at this stage. I wish they still used to go to CD early. I like to see multiple works at that track. It's a bit quirky, so I like to see how they handle it. That's what cemented my Animal Kingdom pick.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Apr-21

For whatever reason, I haven't even considered Roadster for my ticket.  Just doesn't strike me .. hope that is not fatal for me

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

Apr-21

If I'm not mistaken, starting tomorrow there will be a live stream from 7am to 8am of KD contenders working.  The program will run through May 1.  I think they will be using their facebook page & their twitter feed, not the official KD site.  They will probably pop up on youtube later.

Race form at CD:  By My Standards ran a 2nd in the slop last year.  Game Winner won the BC Juvy on a fast track.  Improbable won a dirt stakes the same day.  Plus Que Parfait ran 3rd last year on a fast track.  Tax ran 2nd last year on a fast track.  War Of Will ran 1st in the slop last year.

That's always been a check mark in my book that carries more weight than how they work over the strip.

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

Apr-21

I know what you mean.  I'm leaving out 3 horses that figure on other peoples' metrics.

Max Security, Vekoma & Roadster.   If I had the clear winner in my mind, which I don't, I'd be able to use them underneath.  However, since it looks like a box this year, I don't want to go that rich.

If I fall out with one of the five or six I plan to box, I'll slot Vekoma in.  Castellano is a difference maker, IMO.

Maximum Security doesn't add up for me in terms of contention.  If I've completely misjudged him & he's superior, then that's on me.  :)

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Apr-21

Thanks for the reminder. Agreed, actually race data is more reliable than works as both you and Winter pointed out.

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