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The last couple years we discussed this angle of horses who don’t run their best at 1 1/8 vs 1 1 1/16 typically do not hit the trifecta. I did a quick glimpse so I probably have some errors but wanted to get this started. Please feel free to correct me. This is who I have now. Game winner Haikal (1 mile) War of Will (Broke bad/injured) Long range toddy (slop?) Bourban war (not in anyway).
What did we decide last year though.........wasn't there some tweaking we had to do with this theory? I can look it up I guess.
Also are we going by BSF or BRIS? It would be different for both. (like for Vekoma. BSF has him running highest fig at 1 mile. BRIS has him matching the 1 mi and 1-1/8)
I had Bris cuz its all i had. Lots of people want to tweak but I keep it simple so I can eliminate some of the 20. So far this young angle has worked keeping out some good horses. McCracken Tapwrit Gunnevera Magnum moon etc. Game winner would be tough to keep out but if it happens we may be on to something.
Got to remember what went on at SA this winter/spring. They slowed that track down.
Northof64 said...I had Bris cuz its all i had.
I only have DRF from before ARK derby so it's not updated. :(
Maybe I can wrangle one out of somebody. It would be interesting to see how both sets of PPs work.
Yes the Beyers and Bris can be contradicting. With Beyers, Game Winner is ok but Win Win Win and Code of Honor are not. It's tough just trying to be consistent instead of just picking the one you want for your preferred outcome. I guess just use with caution and we will see what pans out. I'll take better notes for next year:) Good Luck!!
When it comes to numbers, whether good or bad, I believe there needs to be some context. Win Win Win's numbers have not been great in his last two races. That might seem to indicate that he is better at shorter distances. I don't share that notion. I remember us discussing here his ground loss in the FOY. I believe that a better trip would have resulted in a better outcome, both in finish position and number. In the Bluegrass, he was steadied fairly significantly at the 5/16 when launching his move. This not only affected his momentum, but also the timing of his move, resulting with him being beaten by 3 lengths by Vekoma. Again, that number, with an unimpeded run, should have been higher. Traffic is part of the game, but it is available to anyone. Closers sometimes get dream trips. I remember watching Fusaichi Pegasus being casually ridden through the field to victory in 2000. No one can predict what will happen in the Derby, so I have to hope that Pimentel can work out a good trip, giving WWW a chance to run his best race.
Totally agree and I love the jock change.
I saw it posted that on his TG in last was a 4. They mentioned it matched his previous, but not as good as his 7f run which has been his top. They were wondering the same thing, if he were just better on one turn. The trip is something that that horse whisper guy touches on, with the horses knowing who the superior runners are and succeeding to them.