This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.
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Oldbettowin said...Brisnet pp’s are the CR and RR ratings. If you look at his, he ran a 232 (CR and RR combined) in August then came back in February with a 231 before Boom! He runs a 237 in the La. Derby. I’ve found that anything over a 4 point jump almost always signals a regression
which is basically why nobody should have bet on Stradivari in the KY Derby....or Bodexpress in the KY Derby.
smartyslew said...almost every race can be deciphered and not everything is described,
Then there is the "karma factor". Saez got disqualified on Max Security in the Derby, now he rides Everfast and captures the 3rd leg of the TC???? LOL Wouldn't that be something?
cubs.fan said...Joevia is going to the lead
I agree. Joevia is one fast horse.
Pletcher is putting first time blinks on Intrepid Heart. Equip changes worry me.
"John [Velazquez] has always thought he might need them, especially in his last race," said Pletcher. "His last two works have been with blinkers, and he's seemed a little more focused and a little less distracted by his workmate but not at all overzealous. And hopefully, his little lack of experience will be offset by the one-and-a-half miles."
Quick scan of the Belmont historic pps (1998-2017) show that five horses added blinkers for the Belmont, two won (Summer Bird and Ruler on Ice). The rest off the board.
Bourbon War ~ Smith default jockey ~ Regular jockey Irad Ortiz goes to Tax
Everlast - won't last distance
Intrepid Hero ~ too lightly race for assignment.
Joevia ~ simply an entry
Master Fender ~ stuck around for distance
All above underneath ..to be continued
sorry didn't finish my post about Joevia. If you look at his works at Belmont, back in Jan, Feb, and March, his workouts were "sharper" than Tacitus and Spinoffs this week, so yeah, he's *fast* on the BEL surface.
So it appears that I had better place some "single w/p/s" wagers in this race, because I do not have Tacitus to win on my exotics tickets and I've been assured by everyone and anyone that he is going to win this (except for one of my gal pals who is a pedigree nerd and says no no nope.). I think I will reign back the bankroll I was planning on using for this race. :)
Will you be doing the CMP profile this year. I believe there are 4 or 5 numbers related to this?
Everfast has improved as his races have gotten longer.
Maybe the best way to handicap the race is betting on the 4 jockeys who you "think" can win with a competent ride. Lets see --- Ortiz jr (wins a lot) - Ortiz (wins a lot at Belmont) - Lepareaux (really hot right now) - and Johnny V (Pletcher angle). Ok I'll box these 4 in an exacta and call it a day. No handicapping required.