Wintertrian said...

sorry didn't finish my post about Joevia.  If you look at his works at Belmont, back in Jan, Feb, and March, his workouts were "sharper" than Tacitus and Spinoffs this week, so yeah, he's *fast* on the BEL surface.

....and indeed, he was. 

I didn't play a tri or superfecta so I wouldn't have had Joevia but his works at BEL ended up foreshadowing his finish ITM.   
 
I was trying to talk some guys at the track into betting the Awesome Agains......his dam was lightning fast....track was playing right for that.. 
 

Wintertrian said...

IF you think it's a jockey's race, then you would have to play Lezcano wouldn't you?  He's the top rider at BEL 

I hope somebody did.  

Wintertrian said...

Winners of Belmont usually have certain dosage profiles, and I think I will stick with those.  That would be Bourbon War, Master Fencer, Sir Winston, Spinoff (and Intrepid Heart who I don't like at all).     I will figure out which ones I like and play with some of the 2 favs

Well I got the race right but didn't get rich, since Tacitus brought down the value of my exacta which is the only kind of wager i made.  

Lezcano is great on front runners and fit this horse to a t/

I've bet him a lot on front runners on turf and that is a gift to get that done.

Lone Speed is dangerous. i had him in a super didn't have tax.

front runner, stalker, closer, long shot.

smartyslew said...

Lezcano is great on front runners and fit this horse to a t/

I've bet him a lot on front runners on turf and that is a gift to get that done.

Lone Speed is dangerous. i had him in a super didn't have tax.

front runner, stalker, closer, long shot.

Once I saw the depressed odds (I drove to Oaklawn right before the race to place my bet) I realized I was only going to play an exacta.  There was too much risk for too little money to do otherwise.

  
The teller who cashed my exacta ... her sister had the superfecta.  She was dancing around behind the counter.  :) 

I had a little "side money" on both of the Awesome Agains, despite everyone didn't like Everfast (he was a wasted bet) but at least Sir Winston paid off.   (I liked his dam, broodmare of the year 2000) but still didn't make a whole lot, maybe doubled my money and I didn't bet much to begin with. 

So TC season for me:  did well in Derby, totally bombed in the Preakness, and so-so in the Belmont.  

I was talking this horse up since the Peter Pan, even talked about how the race would play out. Everything went according to script. Only problem, my daughter was playing in a little league softball tournament, so I didn't go to my usual OTB site this weekend. I lost out on a More Than Ready firster named Magic Dance, half-sister to Guarana who defeated Serengeti Empress. She paid over $18 to win, then missed out on Sir Winston. At least my daughter's team won and will be moving on to the Caribbean tournament in Puerto Rico. Not bad considering this is our first year with girls 12U softball.

RAESFAN said...

I was talking this horse up since the Peter Pan, even talked about how the race would play out. Everything went according to script

Yes, I remember you were ......... you were on him before anyone else.....congrats!

BTW, Master Fencer ran another really nice race today.  


I also enjoyed watching Mitole kick butt.  He is so fast.

You made some real memories though, the kind you can’t put a price on!

The irony of Jose being wide wide, while wide, wide Joel got a ground saving trip.  Tacitus was the best horse, Sir Winston got the better trip.    The other, Lepareaux who graduated from the Pat "wait all Day" school of riding, waiting too long again.  Went from 9th to 5th in the stretch.   similar to the Derby ride finishing well, but way too late.  Works well in those claimers at CD where he doesn't use up more horse than needed, bit not so well in the big races.

My main plays were built around pretty much straight Tacitus, over Sir Winston, over Master Fencer.  Savers with SW over Tacitus, but heaviest with Tacitus up top.  MF solidly in 3rd, Had WoW only in 4th, put Tax in 3rd and 4th, and also MF 4th when Tax 3rd.  Bulk of my bet was Tacitus over SW exacta.  Did not use any other horse, did not use the 1.  Was not thrilled or sure about Shanghai Bobby as a sire, nor Wat Front as bms, Mr Greeley did not scream either.  The only thing I though positive was his tf.  But you need to get a bit lucky.  The whole day looked like a chalk fest, so I did not play much anything underneath, and it was mostly except the Woody Stephens, I would not of had those.   McKinzie, I did not play either but thought he was best there, just could not get through, so ride/luck cost him.  I am not blessed enough that I can make a straight  super with 1/2/3/ 4&5 and then if comes in with the 4&5 dead heating for 4th making all tickets winners.

A lot seemed to come up with the exacta, but then it looks like a lot of people spread very wide.  I did not spread this race, nor the Preakness, played my opnion heavy with the most straight bets.  Saver pulled out Belmont day and Preakness day other losses so not bad, but would have been nice if Joel did a little bit of those Game Winner rides.

Edit:  Sir Winston I swear was 8-1 all day long, then after the race goes up to 10-1.  Had it been up there when I bet may have swayed me to use a saver there. But with me, it usually goes the other way like earlier this year, played a horse 12-1 at the break, who was 8-1 when they crossed the line.  I could not believe all the interest in Intrepid Heart, or for Spinoff either.   Only 3 races and getting pounded that hard.  I was all in on his half COmissioner, and got that bad beat at the wire. and played Vinno (dam is VR granddam) in hopes of upsetting the TC last year, so was a bit worried about karma hitting me for not considering IH.   Was it just TAP that caused all that interest?  That is all I heard.  Looks like TAP was the wise guy this year.

Add another ND to this, and still no Tapit’s have won that had a Phalaris bms.  2nd or 3rd’s okay though.