Gerh said...

Might throw Intrepid Heart in with that Homebred box and make a pretty decent 5 horse box.

BTW,hope the move went well and you are settling into your new place

Thanks, place is smaller and closer to the track.  I like it.  Still exhausted though, moving at my age takes a lot out of ya. 

I haven't decided what to do with Intrepid Heart yet.  I can tell you that "cheap horses" don't win the Belmont usually, and his auction price makes him a contender in that respect.  ;)  Having a hard time separating him from Sir Winston. ????   
I know his numbers "look" like Tonalist's, but they actually aren't on the mare side at all.  So why do you like him better than say, Sir Winston? Interested in your thoughts.

Master Fencer ran the derby w/out LASIX.  I believe he was the only horse in the race who didn't get Lasix.  Gotta respect that.  Dead last coming to the stretch and made up a ton of ground, almost unbelievable amount, while taking a whole lot lot lot of slop / mud in face.  Love him but also love his connections/trainer.  Really nice people.

Would prefer a different jockey.Not sure how effective Leparoux will be at Belmont.He usually rides closers pretty well but Belmont Park is a different animal

I edited and added to my post, had some ?? for ya.

For the Belmont,Tapit and Pletcher are playable angles.Intrepid Heart also has Buckpasser angle.Sir Winston is a great closer but may need a faster pace than he’ll get here

Subject: belmont winners tf & conduit 1867-2018

<sub>I used to use the mare family angle but found it is just "too broad" to help much?  There's 3 1-n's in here and 2 8-fs , then the "usual" 1x doxa, (which has become an overplayed angle at times)-----plus is it my imagination or is most of the field kinda *turfy* based on pedigree charts?

then there's always the possibility that a horse like Tapwrit, Creator, Ruler on Ice, etc.   is going to be the first conduit in his family.  :)</sub>  

BTW, smartyslew, I did use the family thing in the KY derby as part of my point system.  that's how War of Will came out so far towards top.  I don't know if it works as good for belmont as for derby, do you know?

Tacitus is 2-1 and WoW is 7/2 right now according to CBS sports?   

Looking back at previous Belmonts, I see that at the 2/3 mark(mile), you better be close. At a mile and half, closers will hang. Pace setters usually hang around for a piece because of that and the slow early fractions. I still like Sir Winston, but he has to be closer which I think he can be if the fractions play to par. Twenty-four second quarters up to a mile would be "fast", so he could be within 3 or 4 lengths off the pace. There are no speed horses entered so far. I expect a slow race with a "sprint" to the finish.

There are no speed horses entered so far. I expect a slow race with a "sprint" to the finish.

This kind of worries me; whoever takes the lead might just keep going.  But which one?  It’s one of the reasons I have Intrepid Heart in the mix.