Subject: belmont winners tf & conduit 1867-2018

<sub>I used to use the mare family angle but found it is just "too broad" to help much?  There's 3 1-n's in here and 2 8-fs , then the "usual" 1x doxa, (which has become an overplayed angle at times)-----plus is it my imagination or is most of the field kinda *turfy* based on pedigree charts?

then there's always the possibility that a horse like Tapwrit, Creator, Ruler on Ice, etc.   is going to be the first conduit in his family.  :)</sub>  

BTW, smartyslew, I did use the family thing in the KY derby as part of my point system.  that's how War of Will came out so far towards top.  I don't know if it works as good for belmont as for derby, do you know?

Tacitus is 2-1 and WoW is 7/2 right now according to CBS sports?   

Looking back at previous Belmonts, I see that at the 2/3 mark(mile), you better be close. At a mile and half, closers will hang. Pace setters usually hang around for a piece because of that and the slow early fractions. I still like Sir Winston, but he has to be closer which I think he can be if the fractions play to par. Twenty-four second quarters up to a mile would be "fast", so he could be within 3 or 4 lengths off the pace. There are no speed horses entered so far. I expect a slow race with a "sprint" to the finish.

There are no speed horses entered so far. I expect a slow race with a "sprint" to the finish.

This kind of worries me; whoever takes the lead might just keep going.  But which one?  It’s one of the reasons I have Intrepid Heart in the mix.

He stumbled today in his work- Toss

David Grening@DRFGrening

Joevia is going to the lead. Spinoff sits second.

Not sure about Joevia (I keep wondering if he has a brother named Stevia) but I do think Spinoff will be near the lead.  I had him down for a bit of regression in the derby, along with Tax among others.  I expect much better performances out of both of them.  Everfast is the one that regresses here.

I hope some of the connections reconsider and we get at least 10 in here.

Owendale also looks like fool's gold in this one for multiple reasons. Looks like they're skipping the race now. Everfast for some of the same reasons.

Interpid Heart is, of course, a half to Commissioner, so he has the goods to get there.