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Belmont Stakes   Triple Crown

Started May-26 by Oldbettowin; 10208 views.
In reply toRe: msg 45
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-1

Everyone's idea of a "bad sign" is different.  For me it would be this:  War of Will won't breeze before the Belmont

Right now I'll stick w/the ones I still like until the final PPs come out and I can see everybody next to each other.  

Its one of the things I deduct for on my chart:  "They have to breeze before the Belmont regardless of how hard they ran in the Derby and Preakness"


 



 

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

Jun-1

Wonder if he breezed between the derby and the Preakness?  Maybe just galloped, no idea.

In reply toRe: msg 47
Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

Jun-1

Right now my head says WoW just ahead of Tacitus and Spinoff.  But I’ve got to think WoW fades and gets caught; Spinoff should be close enough to do it.  He wasn’t near the front in the derby but that was atypical for him in the slop.  I think Tacitus will be too far back.

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Jun-1

I don't see a fast pace, so I don't think Tacitus will be far back. In his maiden win, he was only a shade over two lengths back at the half run in under :47. He has some tactical speed, and was far back in the TBD and the Wood, because of horses pretty much winging it early. I anticipate the race being run like a European grass race, where everyone will gallop along before picking it up at the mile marker. :24+, :48+, 1:13+, 1:38+, 2:03+, +2:29+; Slow pace, slow race! Having said that, now I've set it up for someone to try to steal the race on the front end!

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

Jun-1

You might be right about Tacitus, and the Belmont first half mile is usually run in about :48.4.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-1

I also think the pace will be slow, which is what gives me pause w/Tacitus.  Seems like he benefitted from a fast pace in the Wood and Tampa Derby?

Gerh

From: Gerh

Jun-1

Transparency in racing....we can dream.Just watched the Epsom Derby.Fantastic race.Baffert should watch Aiden O Briens interviews.The Guy always deflects attention from himself and always gives total credit to his whole crew.

cubs.fan

From: cubs.fan

Jun-1

I think whoever is sitting second on the backstretch wins this race. Spinoff or Tax.

Gerh

From: Gerh

Jun-1

I don’t think he had an official breeze between the Derby and Preakness

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-1

cubs.fan said...

I think whoever is sitting second on the backstretch wins this race. Spinoff or Tax.
 

I'm thinking one of these for the win:  Spinoff, Master Fencer, Sir Winston, Intrepid Heart.   I have a weird little formula I made up that points to those 4. 


"It could happen category but I don't think so" = Tacitus, Everfast

 

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