Everyone's idea of a "bad sign" is different.  For me it would be this:  War of Will won't breeze before the Belmont

Right now I'll stick w/the ones I still like until the final PPs come out and I can see everybody next to each other.  

Its one of the things I deduct for on my chart:  "They have to breeze before the Belmont regardless of how hard they ran in the Derby and Preakness"

Wonder if he breezed between the derby and the Preakness?  Maybe just galloped, no idea.

Right now my head says WoW just ahead of Tacitus and Spinoff.  But I’ve got to think WoW fades and gets caught; Spinoff should be close enough to do it.  He wasn’t near the front in the derby but that was atypical for him in the slop.  I think Tacitus will be too far back.

I don't see a fast pace, so I don't think Tacitus will be far back. In his maiden win, he was only a shade over two lengths back at the half run in under :47. He has some tactical speed, and was far back in the TBD and the Wood, because of horses pretty much winging it early. I anticipate the race being run like a European grass race, where everyone will gallop along before picking it up at the mile marker. :24+, :48+, 1:13+, 1:38+, 2:03+, +2:29+; Slow pace, slow race! Having said that, now I've set it up for someone to try to steal the race on the front end!

You might be right about Tacitus, and the Belmont first half mile is usually run in about :48.4.

I also think the pace will be slow, which is what gives me pause w/Tacitus.  Seems like he benefitted from a fast pace in the Wood and Tampa Derby?

Transparency in racing....we can dream.Just watched the Epsom Derby.Fantastic race.Baffert should watch Aiden O Briens interviews.The Guy always deflects attention from himself and always gives total credit to his whole crew.

I think whoever is sitting second on the backstretch wins this race. Spinoff or Tax.

I don’t think he had an official breeze between the Derby and Preakness

cubs.fan said...

I think whoever is sitting second on the backstretch wins this race. Spinoff or Tax.
 

I'm thinking one of these for the win:  Spinoff, Master Fencer, Sir Winston, Intrepid Heart.   I have a weird little formula I made up that points to those 4. 

"It could happen category but I don't think so" = Tacitus, Everfast