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Belmont Stakes   Triple Crown

Started 5/26/19 by Oldbettowin; 29645 views.
Msg 68 of 176 to chroseschroses 
In reply toRe: msg 67
Gerh

From: Gerh

6/2/19

Hard to know what to make of this.Gargan likes to give Tax a lot of time between races.Seems like one of those situations where the owners want to run and the trainer isn’t 100% behind the idea

 
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Msg 69 of 176 to WintertrianWintertrian 
In reply toRe: msg 46
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/2/19

Don't forget to have at least one on your ticket from the Peter Pan!!!

a few pedigree angles for the 2018 Belmont angles for the win
look for  justify in the pos[tive and negative angles
  • dams bm sire di above 3.00--1 negative pt
    free drop billy 4.78,justify 3.16,restoring hope 3.16
    noble indy 3.50
    --
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Msg 70 of 176 to OldbettowinOldbettowin 
In reply toRe: msg 1
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/2/19

  • if i get time i'll try to do this
    saying that  maybe some body might find time to look these up..
    tonalist had every positive ped angle on here  except one
    this one:  “O” points in 4th wing of dosage profile-1 pos pt
    not to shabby
    ----------
    sires bm sire cd over .90--1 negative pt
    sires bm sire di above 3.25--1 negative pt
    dams bm sire di above 3.00--1 negative pt
    has 0-0 stamina points on the sire side-1 negative pt(Sire)
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Msg 71 of 176 to smartyslewsmartyslew 
In reply toRe: msg 70
Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

6/2/19

Wow, great stuff!  Thanks

 
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Msg 72 of 176 to OldbettowinOldbettowin 
In reply toRe: msg 71
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/2/19

did you read message 69?

 
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Msg 73 of 176 to smartyslewsmartyslew 
In reply toRe: msg 70
Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

6/2/19

Everfast, Joevia, Sir Winston, and Spinoff have no stamina points at all.

 
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Msg 74 of 176 to smartyslewsmartyslew 
In reply toRe: msg 72
Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

6/2/19

I did, that’s a lot to go thru lol.  As for Justify, I think you could throw all the rules out the window with him.  Hopefully things will stay normal for awhile.  I’d never seen a horse with muscle on top of muscle like that, it wasn’t natural.

Although we did have three TC winners in a six year period back in the 70’s so maybe Baffert’s about to unveil another one for next year.

 
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Msg 75 of 176 to OldbettowinOldbettowin 
In reply toRe: msg 74
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/2/19

   inbreeding stats for linebreeding , more than one progeny from a mare
within 8 generations
Natalma(1957)(ALMAHMOUD) dam of Northern dancer has never been on a 8 generation female linebreeding chart
for a Belmont winner. here is some contenders trying to be the first.
MASTER FENCER C, 2016 DP = 3-4-6-1-0 (14) DI = 2.50   CD = 0.64
Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood% Influence AGR
ALMAHMOUD 6s x 8s x 6d x 8d x 8d
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Msg 76 of 176
In reply toRe: msg 75
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/2/19

this is from the 8 generation linebreeding chart for females in Belmont winners
its called the 7 generation coefficent of inbreeding percentage.
very seldom the percentage for belmont winners are over 3% let alone 4%.
since 1900 from all of the belmont winners these are the 3 highest percentage leaders of this data.
-
1957 gallant man's percentage 5.425%  3s x 3d  Mah Mahal 9c 25 % (rf) mahmoud mah iran
only belmont winner with a rf dam in his 3rd generation to elevate his percentage, thats special
-
2012 union rags                  4.437%
2009 summer bird              4.321 %
----
here is 2 for 2019 that are over 4 %
tacitus has something royal and aspidistra that is positive, his 4.065 is negative.
-----
WAR OF WILL C, 2016 DP = 5-8-17-4-0 (34) DI = 1.72   CD = 0.41
Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood% Influence AGR
LALUN 5D x 5D
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Msg 77 of 176 to smartyslewsmartyslew 
In reply toRe: msg 75
Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

6/2/19

 

That’s interesting also.  I looked at some of message 69, not sure I understood everything but this is what I’ve got so far...

<1> Dam’s bms di over 3.00: Everfast (?—Infinity), Joevia (4.14), Master Fencer (3.38), Tacitus (4.00), War of Will (3.87)

<1> No stamina pts. sire side:  Everfast, Joevia, Master Fencer, Spinoff

<1> No stamina pts. dam side:  Everfast, Intrepid Heart, Joevia, Sir Winston, Tacitus

<1> 0-0 stamina pts., none in 5 generations:  Everfast, Joevia

+1 Conduit Belmont Winner:  none.

+1 War Admiral passing position:  BW, IH, Joe, MF, SW, Spin, Tact, Tax.  (All but Everfast and WoW)

+1 LaTroienne passing:  BW, IH, Spin, Tact, Tax, WoW

+1 Family 1X passing:  IH, Spin, Tax

+1 Princequillo passing:  IH, MF, SW, Spin, Tact, Tax

By my calculations so far that’s:

+3 Intrepid Heart, Spinoff, Tax

+2 Bourbon War

+1 Sir Winston, Tacitus

0 Master Fencer, War of Will

<3> Joevia

<4> Everfast

 
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