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Belmont Stakes   Triple Crown

Started 5/26/19 by Oldbettowin; 15295 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/2/19

did you read message 69?

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

6/2/19

Everfast, Joevia, Sir Winston, and Spinoff have no stamina points at all.

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

6/2/19

I did, that’s a lot to go thru lol.  As for Justify, I think you could throw all the rules out the window with him.  Hopefully things will stay normal for awhile.  I’d never seen a horse with muscle on top of muscle like that, it wasn’t natural.

Although we did have three TC winners in a six year period back in the 70’s so maybe Baffert’s about to unveil another one for next year.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/2/19

   inbreeding stats for linebreeding , more than one progeny from a mare
within 8 generations
Natalma(1957)(ALMAHMOUD) dam of Northern dancer has never been on a 8 generation female linebreeding chart
for a Belmont winner. here is some contenders trying to be the first.
MASTER FENCER C, 2016 DP = 3-4-6-1-0 (14) DI = 2.50   CD = 0.64
Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood% Influence AGR
ALMAHMOUD 6s x 8s x 6d x 8d x 8d
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In reply toRe: msg 75
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/2/19

this is from the 8 generation linebreeding chart for females in Belmont winners
its called the 7 generation coefficent of inbreeding percentage.
very seldom the percentage for belmont winners are over 3% let alone 4%.
since 1900 from all of the belmont winners these are the 3 highest percentage leaders of this data.
-
1957 gallant man's percentage 5.425%  3s x 3d  Mah Mahal 9c 25 % (rf) mahmoud mah iran
only belmont winner with a rf dam in his 3rd generation to elevate his percentage, thats special
-
2012 union rags                  4.437%
2009 summer bird              4.321 %
----
here is 2 for 2019 that are over 4 %
tacitus has something royal and aspidistra that is positive, his 4.065 is negative.
-----
WAR OF WILL C, 2016 DP = 5-8-17-4-0 (34) DI = 1.72   CD = 0.41
Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood% Influence AGR
LALUN 5D x 5D
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Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

6/2/19

 

That’s interesting also.  I looked at some of message 69, not sure I understood everything but this is what I’ve got so far...

<1> Dam’s bms di over 3.00: Everfast (?—Infinity), Joevia (4.14), Master Fencer (3.38), Tacitus (4.00), War of Will (3.87)

<1> No stamina pts. sire side:  Everfast, Joevia, Master Fencer, Spinoff

<1> No stamina pts. dam side:  Everfast, Intrepid Heart, Joevia, Sir Winston, Tacitus

<1> 0-0 stamina pts., none in 5 generations:  Everfast, Joevia

+1 Conduit Belmont Winner:  none.

+1 War Admiral passing position:  BW, IH, Joe, MF, SW, Spin, Tact, Tax.  (All but Everfast and WoW)

+1 LaTroienne passing:  BW, IH, Spin, Tact, Tax, WoW

+1 Family 1X passing:  IH, Spin, Tax

+1 Princequillo passing:  IH, MF, SW, Spin, Tact, Tax

By my calculations so far that’s:

+3 Intrepid Heart, Spinoff, Tax

+2 Bourbon War

+1 Sir Winston, Tacitus

0 Master Fencer, War of Will

<3> Joevia

<4> Everfast

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

6/2/19

Starting to look like a Spinoff-Intrepid Heart exacta :D

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

6/3/19

Oldbettowin said...

Everfast, Joevia, Sir Winston, and Spinoff have no stamina points at all.

It won't matter with Everfast.  :)   

And I have a feeling Spinoff may surprise....you liked him right?   

At any rate, sire stamina doesn't win the Belmont Stakes. 
 

War of Will not only has broodmare of the year Best in Show, but BIS is the same family as another broodmare of the year, Better Than Honour.  High class female family there.     WoW also has killler high % of St. Simon (thru nearco and ND) ---- Both Secretariat and Ribot had their highest blood percentage coming directly from St. Simon and Galopin.  I knew this before the KY Derby and thought for sure he would do well, but we will never know now because he was interferred with.  I don't know how he will fare in the Belmont, but the horse is pure class.

Everfast's Dam is a Farish bred & full sister to Wilco (3rd to Lava Man @ 1-1/4 and beat Afleet Alex in the BCJ)---Wilco's sire Awesome Again (Everfast's BMS)  was the only Breeders' Cup Classic winner to sire 4 additional Breeders Cup Classic winners (Ghostzapper, Ginger Punch, Wilko, & Round Pond)  not to mention he won it in 1998 with possibly one of the best fields ever assembled beating Silver Charm, Touch Gold, Victory Gallop and Skip Away.   

So, I'll take a chance on Everfast hitting the superfecta for sure-----plenty enough classic influence there for my liking.  

Msg 1247.80 deleted
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

6/3/19

Oldbettowin said...

+1 Conduit Belmont Winner:  none.

this part is not correct

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