Oldbettowin said...

Everfast, Joevia, Sir Winston, and Spinoff have no stamina points at all.

It won't matter with Everfast.  :)   

And I have a feeling Spinoff may surprise....you liked him right?   

At any rate, sire stamina doesn't win the Belmont Stakes. 
 

War of Will not only has broodmare of the year Best in Show, but BIS is the same family as another broodmare of the year, Better Than Honour.  High class female family there.     WoW also has killler high % of St. Simon (thru nearco and ND) ---- Both Secretariat and Ribot had their highest blood percentage coming directly from St. Simon and Galopin.  I knew this before the KY Derby and thought for sure he would do well, but we will never know now because he was interferred with.  I don't know how he will fare in the Belmont, but the horse is pure class.

Everfast's Dam is a Farish bred & full sister to Wilco (3rd to Lava Man @ 1-1/4 and beat Afleet Alex in the BCJ)---Wilco's sire Awesome Again (Everfast's BMS)  was the only Breeders' Cup Classic winner to sire 4 additional Breeders Cup Classic winners (Ghostzapper, Ginger Punch, Wilko, & Round Pond)  not to mention he won it in 1998 with possibly one of the best fields ever assembled beating Silver Charm, Touch Gold, Victory Gallop and Skip Away.   

So, I'll take a chance on Everfast hitting the superfecta for sure-----plenty enough classic influence there for my liking.  

Oldbettowin said...

+1 Conduit Belmont Winner:  none.

this part is not correct

hope they go with the trainer opinion on Tax. He is such a beautiful horse, would hate to see him ruined running this if he's not 100%

Oldbettowin said...

’d never seen a horse with muscle on top of muscle like that, it wasn’t natural.

You said a mouthful there. ;) 

I screwed up in message 75. I forgot Ruler on ice had almahmoud in his inbreeding
i didn't recall that and used information from a older page, sorry.

for sure he is the only one since 2000 and when i have time i will check earlier to make sure
this is the only one.

2011 belmont 

RULER ON ICE G, 2008 DP = 6-1-9-0-0 (16) DI = 2.56   CD = 0.81

Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood% Influence AGR ALMAHMOUD da/g 7s x 7s x 8s x 7d natalma, cosmah  2d

Better Than Honour had TWO offspring win it but she’s not the conduit, that’s Torpenhow.  Or am I doing that wrong?

I don’t know.  When I first looked at the probables Spinoff immediately jumped out for several reasons but then when I look at the pp’s its all Tacitus and WoW.  

Spinoff stood out to me too based on both sire side and female side profiles.    If you want a good longshot on your ticket to my mind I would include him.  I may even have a ticket using him as the key.  :)  WoW is a class call.  Even if I don't like a horse's numbers for a race, if they are the class of the field, I can't see not including them?   For Tacitus, I just don't think he has the right numbers for Belmont.  Then again, many of the Taptit's do not, but they have tapit-belmont-magic, so I never know whether to use them or not.  LOL  

As for the conduits, sorry, I was confusing that with Bruce Lowe's division of the females into families, but I see that was not included in the analyses.       

I keep an "angles that work" sheet going, so every year I am tracking what angles appear to have the most significance.  Unfortunately, some of them, like Dr. Roman's performance figures, were very powerful, but we don't have them anymore.  :(    There were years where you could have used just 3 or 4 angles and hit the superfecta or trifecta. 
For instance  in 2017, you could have just used the PPs and brisnet distance figs for the trifecta.  
In 2010, all you really needed was 3 angles:  Trainer won belmont, horse worked sharp or ran well at Belmont, and horse had previous belmont winners somewhere in their pedigree.   If you used those, and only those, you had not only the trifecta, but the superfecta as well that year. 
You could have just boxed them (and icebox would have been your only non-itm "extra" there.)   If you wanted to properly place/tier them, then you had to look closer, i.e. First Dude was coming in off very little rest, there was little chance he was going to run the race of his life and top his other figs that day.  (and he did run 3rd).  

Over the years I just got rid of the truly difficult more "woo woo" angles, because it's a PITA to do them and oftentimes, it's just too hidden to track down.   It really depends on the amount of time I have during the time and year when race is run.  12F+ is a tough category esp in the U.S. racing universe

The hard part is figuring out WHICH angles are going to be significant *this year*.   I sluiced thru my records and I think I have a playable 5 horse box.   If I add in Everfast (really only a hunch play since he is not coming out well on most angles) That would make 6 horses.  And using him also requires that I leave out Tacitus on my trifecta.  Which I think I'm sorta okay with.  ;)