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Belmont Stakes   Triple Crown

Started 5/26/19 by Oldbettowin; 14849 views.
Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

6/3/19

I didn’t like him at all in the derby, and Pletcher said he didn’t care for the going—and he may not have, but I thought he would regress off his race in Louisiana.  One thing I like to look at in the Brisnet pp’s are the CR and RR ratings.  If you look at his, he ran a 232 (CR and RR combined) in August then came back in February with a 231 before Boom! He runs a 237 in the La. Derby.  I’ve found that anything over a 4 point jump almost always signals a regression in the next outing and sure enough he ran a 233 in Louisville.  Same with Tax—230 in the Withers before a 236 in the Wood.  He ran a 234 in the derby.  It doesn’t tell you who’s getting ready to run a big race but it’s pretty good at telling you who probably isn’t.  

Look at Everfast:  228-232-231-231-231-238.  If he duplicates that Preakness run I’ll eat my hat lol.  But there’s exceptions to every rule as we all know and I’m the last person that would ever try to talk anyone off a horse :)

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/3/19

He had a dream trip ducking inside when it opened up on the rail.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

6/3/19

Oldbettowin said...

It doesn’t tell you who’s getting ready to run a big race but it’s pretty good at telling you who probably isn’t.

Hey thanks for the info on CR and RR.  I always learn something from my fellow forum members every year. 

My original Belmont horses were going to be Country House and Game Winner.  I mean, even before the Derby, I thought they would be the best for this race.   So, really, not just one of my horses, but 2 of 'em aren't going to be running, so that left me quite *empty handed*. 

As for the above quoted line, it's 12F.   I can watch these horses all day long but really can't tell you who is going to gallop along completely RELAXED, and then respond to the "go button" in the stretch or coming around last turn.   

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

6/3/19

smartyslew said...

He had a dream trip ducking inside when it opened up on the rail.

Yes, well getting a "dream trip" is part and parcel of racing isn't it?   
Always Dreaming in the Derby.  
Super Saver's rail trip in the Derby (would he have won w/out Borel on board?) 
Exaggerator in his hug the rail dream trip in the Preakness (and he also lucked out and got his "mud" on that day)

Conversely, Classic Empire got "clobbered" at the start in his Derby, and if Lookin at Lucky hadn't drawn the #1 post, would he have won his Derby?

Every race is about positioning, yet when a horse that has long odds actually GETS positioning, he's always treated like a sucker afterwards, unless it's a post time favorite......then it's "talent" that got them there.   LOL  

Give me a true fighter any day.  Like Lookin' at Lee.  (I don't think anyone gave him credit for being the first horse in 20 years to hit the board from his Post position.... and he ran 2nd no less.)    And by the way, did you know that it is actually post #2 that has had the most trouble if you read thru every Derby chart for last 20 years? 


There were other jockeys in the Preakness who could have positioned their horses in the right spot.....and their horses might not have "ducked in" to run 2nd in the Preakness.   

What I've noticed is that when a short-odds horse does something like that, they are hailed as having "great turn of foot" and "champions".   But when a long odds outlier horse does it, its seen as an "abberation" and the horse is looked at as a sucker after that. 



Just so you guys know, I know Everfast has crappy numbers.  I am not picking him to win the belmont.  It's just that every year, I "throw a horse I like" onto my ticket, regardless of odds, etc. simply because they spoke to me on some level.    Wish I had done that with MTB in the Deby, Ruler on Ice in the Belmont, etc.   LOL  

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/3/19

Hey that was a great ride by the jock and thats a big percentage of a trip besides talent or no talent hence

his number jumped that obtw number displayed, i agree with a lot of what you are saying but i don't put myself in that category you are describing and that trip saved some for this race and jj gave a crappy ride on a good horse and opened the gate for 2 horses, almost every race can be deciphered and not everything is described, i would be here all day if i did.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

6/4/19

Oldbettowin said...

Brisnet pp’s are the CR and RR ratings.  If you look at his, he ran a 232 (CR and RR combined) in August then came back in February with a 231 before Boom! He runs a 237 in the La. Derby.  I’ve found that anything over a 4 point jump almost always signals a regression

which is basically why nobody should have bet on Stradivari in the KY Derby....or Bodexpress in the KY Derby.  

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

6/4/19

smartyslew said...

almost every race can be deciphered and not everything is described,

Well put.  
Then there is the "karma factor".   Saez got disqualified on Max Security in the Derby, now he rides Everfast and captures the 3rd leg of the TC????   LOL    Wouldn't that be something?  

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

6/4/19

cubs.fan said...

Joevia is going to the lead

I agree.   Joevia is one fast horse.  

Pletcher is putting first time blinks on Intrepid Heart.  Equip changes worry me.  
"John [Velazquez] has always thought he might need them, especially in his last race," said Pletcher. "His last two works have been with blinkers, and he's seemed a little more focused and a little less distracted by his workmate but not at all overzealous. And hopefully, his little lack of experience will be offset by the one-and-a-half miles."

cubs.fan

From: cubs.fan

6/4/19

Quick scan of the Belmont historic pps (1998-2017) show that five horses added blinkers for the Belmont, two won (Summer Bird and Ruler on Ice). The rest off the board.

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