Horse Racing Forum

Hosted by Cindy Dulay (CindyDulay)

This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.

  • 353
    MEMBERS
  • 19667
    MESSAGES
  • 1
    POSTS TODAY

Discussions

Royal Ascot Day 1   European Racing

Started Jun-18 by Wintertrian; 313 views.
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-18

Race 4:  ST JAMES'S PALACE STAKES  1 mile Turf:

At 8/5, Phoenix of Spain might win, but I can't take that wager.   They have all been running at 126, 135, etc. 11 horse field. 

King of Comedy---grandaddy was Invincible Spirit....he won just about everything you can win and shattered records with his offspring as most wins of 2 year olds with 42. But I sense this is a sprinting background but king has the right numbers at 1 mile, which this race is, looking at his other races. He's 5-1 on the ML. 
Too Darn Hot, 2018 Cartier Champion 2-year-old Colt at 5/2. Most of his wins at 7F and 2 at 1 mile, but has placed at 1-1/4 and 1. With Dettori up. Looks pretty good. Ran 2nd to Phoenix of Spain in the Irish Guineas.  5/2 odds.  
Scardu - trained by Haggas. Nice Shamardal colt. Probably not fast enough but a mile specialist and board hitter type. Jimmy Doyle up. 10-1 M/L 
Circus Maximus - family loaded with stamina, O'brien trains with Ryan Moore up. I think there may be some speediers in here and he would probably do better at longer than a mile, but at 10-1 he's worth a bet. 
Longshot??  Pretty much none that i can see? Maybe Fox Champion. Dad is 1/2 brother to Invincible Spirit. And because I like Con Marnane.  Would take a miracle though, he's 20-1.


Race 3: 
KING'S STAND STAKES
Don't think there will be much chance of defeating the chalks in here (Battash and Blue Point -- my win guy) but I will try to find some value in the race. 

--Mab's Cross never ran out of the money and can run the right figures against the chalks at 7-1. 
--Our very own IMPRIMIS (USA) trained by Orseno and ridden by Dettori at 10-1. On a good day this one can run fast enough, plus I like sire and broodmaresire. 
Longshot??: Soldier's Call - 5f specialist @15-1. Hasn't shown much this year and hasn't raced much this year, but 2nd off the layoff, she might can hit the board. Or Equilateral, nice sire on that one who has a good record at Ascot, also 15-1.  
(It was between these longshots and Fairyland at 20-1, who has way more class than the other 2,  but I think O'Brien has been running Fairyland at too high a class now based on his brilliant 2 year old record, and he's not cutting it.)  


will try to do one more if I have time in the morning.  I'm not an ascot specialist thats for sure. 

 

In reply toRe: msg 1
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-18

Race 6:  WOLFERTON STAKES  Not even gonna cap it.   I am 100% for Magic Wand winning this.  Feel like 7-1 on her is killer good offer.  I hope she can do it.  Field of 16 though, and she got the farthest outside post at 16 and its a very tough field!  Worried but will key her. 
Others of note I would mix in that look okay to me: Willie John 10-1, Oasis Charm 15-1, Elarqam 4-1, First Nation 12-1, AddeyBB 7-1 and (longshot bomb!) Global Giant at 30-1. :) .

In reply toRe: msg 2
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-18

I changed my mind about Race 1.  I might put a small wager on Barney Roy and Laurens.  Also look good:  Hazapour, Accidental Agent,  and longshot bomb Sharja Bridge

In reply toRe: msg 3
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-18

Crazy longshots that might be worth a look for Tuesday, based on a number of weird ascot factors I graded on.....lets see if any of them run ITM.    Odds must be 6-1 M/L or over, so that's why you are not seeing many of the other good value bets.  

Sergei Prokofiev 6-1
Mabs Cross 7-1
AddeyBB  7-1
Star of Bengal 8-1
Scardu 10-1

Hazapour 10-1
Monoski 10-1
Well of Wisdom 10-1
Scardu 10-1
Willie John 10-1
Royal Lytham 12-1
First Nation 12-1
Shaman 12-1
Equilateral 15-1 

Oasis Charm 15-1
Zihba 15-1 
Golden Horde 20-1 **
Sharja Bridge 20-1
Matterhorn 20-1
Majestic Sands 30-1
Mythical Magic 30-1
Global Giant 30-1
Van Beethoven 30-1

Ropey Guest 60-1  = hey don't laugh these were about what super steed's and country house;s odds were when I bet them!
 
 

In reply toRe: msg 4
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-18

Race 1 paid over $7K for the $1 trifecta.  Didn't have it.  :)    My crazy longshots may not be such a bad idea after all.......guess we'll see. 

In reply toRe: msg 1
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-18

Wintertrian said...

Race 3: KING'S STAND STAKES
Don't think there will be much chance of defeating the chalks in here (Battash and Blue Point -- my win guy) but I will try to find some value in the race. 

--Mab's Cross never ran out of the money and can run the right figures against the chalks at 7-1. 
--Our very own IMPRIMIS (USA) trained by Orseno and ridden by Dettori at 10-1. On a good day this one can run fast enough, plus I like sire and broodmaresire. 
Longshot??: Soldier's Call - 5f specialist @15-1. Hasn't shown much this year and hasn't raced much this year, but 2nd off the layoff, she might can hit the board.

Kaching! Got all 4 horses right!.   Came in Blue Point, Battash, Soldiers Call and Mab's Cross.   Feels good to finally get a race right at Ascot .   

In reply toRe: msg 1
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-18

Wintertrian said...

Race 4:  ST JAMES'S PALACE STAKES  1 mile Turf:

At 8/5, Phoenix of Spain might win, but I can't take that wager.   They have all been running at 126, 135, etc. 11 horse field. 

King of Comedy---grandaddy was Invincible Spirit....he won just about everything you can win and shattered records with his offspring as most wins of 2 year olds with 42. But I sense this is a sprinting background but king has the right numbers at 1 mile, which this race is, looking at his other races. He's 5-1 on the ML. 
Too Darn Hot, 2018 Cartier Champion 2-year-old Colt at 5/2. Most of his wins at 7F and 2 at 1 mile, but has placed at 1-1/4 and 1. With Dettori up. Looks pretty good. Ran 2nd to Phoenix of Spain in the Irish Guineas.  5/2 odds.  
Scardu - trained by Haggas. Nice Shamardal colt. Probably not fast enough but a mile specialist and board hitter type. Jimmy Doyle up. 10-1 M/L 
Circus Maximus - family loaded with stamina, O'brien trains with Ryan Moore up. I think there may be some speediers in here and he would probably do better at longer than a mile, but at 10-1 he's worth a bet. 
Longshot??  Pretty much none that i can see? Maybe Fox Champion. Dad is 1/2 brother to Invincible Spirit. And because I like Con Marnane.  Would take a miracle though, he's 20-1.


Whoopie.  Got all 4 horses right again!  I better take the rest of the week off as I'm bound to lose now.   

Came in Circus Maximus, King of Comedy, Too Darn Hot and Scardu  ------ and it almost looked  like my longshot who led most of the way, Fox Champion was gonna get ITM, but the other 4 passed him in the stretch.  

Had a profitable "just lucky" morning.  This is the first time I have played the Royal Ascot races.  

In reply toRe: msg 2
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-18

Wintertrian said...

Race 6:  WOLFERTON STAKES  Not even gonna cap it.   I am 100% for Magic Wand winning this.  Feel like 7-1 on her is killer good offer.  I hope she can do it.  Field of 16 though, and she got the farthest outside post at 16 and its a very tough field!  Worried but will key her. 
Others of note I would mix in that look okay to me: Willie John 10-1, Oasis Charm 15-1, Elarqam 4-1, First Nation 12-1, AddeyBB 7-1 and (longshot bomb!) Global Giant at 30-1. :) .

Got the trifecta box.....was worried about my girl and was gonna play her in 3rd, then thought what the hey, better box 'em watching the rain fall and that far outside post.  
I guess I'm amazed as this is my first time playing Royal Ascot and the horses really do run pretty much to form.   I guess no drugging really does work, or I just have beginners luck.   No way I would have gotten 4 horses right, then 4 horses right again, then 3 horses right in my picks.  I never ever do that well in U.S racing.  I reviewed their races, sires, owners, jock and trainers and they ran like they "should" .... pretty much.  I bombed on the baby 2 year old races thinking it would come in crazy, instead race 1 came in crazy and the 2 year olds ran to form. 

Will see how it goes rest of week. 

Plus2lbs

From: Plus2lbs

Jun-18

Strong start for you to the week..interesting commentary for sure..keep on keeping on.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-18

thanks.  I will probably skip a day or 2.   Unlike the Queen, who is 93, and she has NEVER MISSED a Royal Ascot meet, AND she shows up, every single day.  For 64 years.   Never missed one day of it !!!

She's a trooper.  I could not do that, esp at age 93. 

TOP