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Arlington Million   Handicapping

Started Aug-8 by Northof64; 1125 views.
Northof64

From: Northof64

Aug-8

It's been 10 years but I am heading back to the Million this year.  Arlington is a beautiful track if you ever get a chance. Anyway I feel lucky to see IMO the 2 best American turf horses this year in Bricks and Mortar and SisterCharlie.  The bad news is almost unbettable odds and I don't see a major threat for B & M.  For now I'm leaning towards some Chad Brown boxes in the Secratariat and the Beverly D. I'm anxious to see Brown's Valid Point stepping up in class here. Only 2 races but an impressive 1 mile win at Belmont in a time that is better than most. I may not bet the Million unless I put a heavy place bet on a flier like Intellogent.  Any thoughts would be welcome and appreciated.

North

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Aug-8

If Magic Wand goes in the Bev D, I will take a shot at defeating Sistercharlie.

Northof64

From: Northof64

Aug-8

Hope I'm wrong but I feel she may be losing interest and is declining a bit.  However, I do trust your judgement so I will certainly look at her PP's closely and see how she looks in the parade.  I like Fleeting also but I see her getting close then hanging IF she gets there because I think the distance may be too short for her. My first gut feeling was a $20 exacta box  SisterCharlie/Competitionofideas.  Thanks for your thoughts Raes.

North

zowcownow

From: zowcownow

Aug-8

Her 50 length loss looks suspicious from 27 July.  She went off at 28-1.  I hope the public was aware of trainers intentions.  

Things that make u go huh? --- the Secretariat Stakes - Grade 1 -- 1 Mile  for 3 year olds-- When I think of Secretariat Stakes, I would think 1 1/4 miles on dirt.   Hmmmm.....

Bev D -- http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=AP&race=9&param1=5760&param2=800&param3=1181115

Secretariat -- http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=AP&race=10&param1=6400&param2=800&param3=1312350

Arlington Million -- http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=AP&race=11&param1=7040&param2=800&param3=1443585

Pucker Up == http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=AP&race=12&param1=7680&param2=800&param3=1574820

  • Edited August 8, 2019 11:16 pm  by  zowcownow
RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Aug-8

The Secretariat used to be 10f on the turf. Maybe the new turf triple crown in New York, has compelled them to cut it back to get the top middle distance turfers in that age group. Three year old turfers just had a 10f race as the second leg of the turf TC. Maybe they don't want to compete with that.

zowcownow

From: zowcownow

Aug-9

Good point.  I guess most stakes races named after horses aren't always the "named" horse specialty.  

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Aug-9

Remember though, I believe that Secretariat won his last two races in impressive manner on the grass. In fact, he was dubbed “Champion Grass Horse” in 1973, a fact that doesn’t get highlighted that much. I’m more surprised that he doesn’t have a major dirt race in his name, than that he has a turf race.

ChiefsCrown

From: ChiefsCrown

Aug-9

Outside of Robert Bruce and Bricks and Mortar both deep closers, cold exacta IMO, i'm headed towards another deep closer in Captivating Moon @ 20-1. Not sold on Magic Wand and Hunting Horn as more or less pace setters (14 day turn around). 

Bricks & Mortar, Robert Bruce and Captivating Moon in that order!

the Beverly D... Sistercharlie/Competitionofideas cold exacta, Awesometank to fill the trifecta at a mild 8-1 price. Looked at Fleeting, distance questions??? 5-2??? maybe throw him in a super with the other 3.

Thoughts?

Northof64

From: Northof64

Aug-9

I agree with your analysis and never thought of taking a deeper stand and betting a cold one (several times) instead of boxing.  Just looked into Captivating and he does look like a good fit for third. Thank you for your thoughts!

North

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Aug-9

I agree about Magic Wand, but don't think she'll run first this time.  
Here's mine for ya
Winning Envelope in race 12 (should be good odds)
Winter Sunset in race 9 (chalky)

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