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PARX Derby   Handicapping

Started Sep-13 by DogsUp; 1105 views.
DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Sep-13

There are four to five runners in the event that can turn up at the finish as numero uno.

Long Shot Mr. Money and the obvious quartet.

And a quartet bet is about to be set. That is a pick 4 into the PX  Derby. Weather could hit 90f  at Post. Sunny.

The Cotillion for 3 yr old fillies ( Breeders Cup Win & In)  can boil down to few in that predecessor performance.

MR MONEY..  Even thou we ain't got money..I'm so in love with you honey  This guy ranks #12 in 3 yo money won.

Mr. Money...Mister (or Ms or Mrs as the case may be) one can make a money ticket if he now wins 5 in a row. His works have been the top one for the day over and over. And a bank roll of over $900K.

Others..

Improbable (Derby & Preakness betting fav) 2019 of course 

Max Security

War of Will

Mucho Gusto

Spin Off

A no go for Code of Honor ~ Jockey Club Gold Cup ~ a week later against older

Honor's trainer Shug even says PARX surface has some runners go good and some not so good...me too!

G1.   9 furlongs.  Weight 122.

(d)

In reply toRe: msg 1
RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Sep-13

I don't know how much of a long shot Mr. Money is. He has matured greatly, and I have looked forward to him taking on the top tier horses in his division.

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Sep-13

A four deep final betting odds winner in a race of this magnitude, calibre of PPs in a 'Pick 4'  finale leg, call it whatever you want. Delta, a lock, the colt still has to win it next Saturday.

This is about the play, the ticket construction.

Take a look at what the pick 4 played on Travers Day when American Pharoah ran 2nd. The 2 previous races were won by the favorites M/L and final betting. And these same two horse won the previous year in the same event.

$9,500.

The Pick 6 paid 5 of 6 for under $1,000 ~ Carry Over.

Hoofnote: There was a loose horse in Mr Money's  last at a mile and an eighth. Right from the gate. And heading the finish the jockey needed to navigate against what the mountless colt might do or go.

  • Edited September 13, 2019 8:37 pm  by  DogsUp
In reply toRe: msg 1
ChiefsCrown

From: ChiefsCrown

Sep-14

Love the Mr. Money angle to this race. Using him w/Improbable and Spun to Run in my trifecta. Only issue i'm worried about is Mr. Money getting into a speed dual with Max and finishing up the track.

Might throw in WOW in a super.

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Sep-15

Hi Chief... If Max and Mr. Money are anywhere in a Tri that payoff would not be substantial as compared to Mr. Money winning last leg of Pick 4 where the majority of the selections being top three and Mr. Money 4th or better.  Ergo, example say 60% used Max, and another 25 % used the next two or three, accordingly if Mr. Money wins, this is where the Great Mutiplier creates value in that Pick 4 above scenario.

One must also realize to handicap first three legs to include some handicapable longer horses.

Again, to mention the results above for American Pharoah's second in the Travers with the two preceding races leading into the Travers in a Pick 4, both were favs and won.

Winner Keen Ice was 5 deep in the betting.

Race 8Saratoga TB 8-29-2015

P#HorseJockeyWinPlace

Runhappy Edgar S. Prado$24.60$13.8

Race 9Saratoga TB 8-29-2015

P#HorseJockeyWinPlace

Private Zone Martin A. Pedroza$5.20 $3.50

Race 10Saratoga TB 8-29-2015

P# Horse Jockey Win Place
2 Flintshire (GB) Vincent Cheminaud $4.00 $2.80
In reply toRe: msg 5
ChiefsCrown

From: ChiefsCrown

Sep-15

Dogs.....

I like Mr $$ to win this, also throwing in Spun To Run in the mix. Should be big odds, around 15-1, being overlooked. 

Cottillion......I like Jeltrin in this one. Burned some dineros for me earlier in her career, thinking she might be sitting on a big race.

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Sep-15

Draw for PX Derby Monday Sept 16..  Noonish.

In reply toRe: msg 7
DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Sep-17

Bummer....7 colt field, not nearly 10 to 14.. And Mr. Magic sits 3rd @ 4/1, Improbable 3/1 and Max @ 9/5.

War of Will is 5/1.

Others : Math Wizzard, Shanghai Superfly, Spun to Run. Maybe Math Wiz could get a piece of super if top ones fail.

  • Edited September 17, 2019 4:17 pm  by  DogsUp
In reply toRe: msg 8
Gerh

From: Gerh

Sep-17

Down to 6 now.Maximum Security is out

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Sep-17

Max will miss the Pennsylvania Derby due to colic!

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