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The real Delta 2020 KY Derby horse has to be the obvious Tiz the Law with caveat will fav win the Run for the Rose's 7 years in a row?
So pandemic has 7 jocks not reporting to Derby duty a la pandemic quarantine quandary. Churchill jocks pick up a third of field with 7. Dogs has seen a lot of Derbys and the pre season maneuvers a jockey takes to get his Derby mount. Ala a comment made about Dan Quayle when he compared himself to JFK. Another?said to him, "I knew JFK and you're no JFK." Well I know the Kentucky Derby, and this is no Kentucky Derby."
Accordingly this year we have Delta Jockeys. Who won't face the in the irons skills of the likes of Ortiz Brothers, Joe-El Rosario and last year's winning default jockey Flavin.
My amigo Husker and I respectfully declined mounts as well due to the number of sacrificed days to Derby and return quarantine.
And a list of eligible subs will not take on the Derby assignments as to the number of days and rides they would have to surrender to the "My Old Kentucky Home" gut renching song before attempting the 2 minute race of a lifetime.
According, we have substitute:
Max Player – Ricardo Santana, Jr. (Kentucky) – 60 pts.
And statistically and arguably one of the best all time riders and Hall of Famer. Further, at great sacrifice to his heavy rider commitments.
Caracaro – Javier Castellano 60 pts
And these mounts have hit the board behind TTL in G1 Stakes leading up to The Big Race.
For the time being this is The Derby Dashboard. (d)
Roses....Never knew that bit of info! Rock Hard Ten was a star after all!!!
Arr Collector + TIz the Law become final key say Delta colts with a week to go. Whichever horse is at the mile and an eighth at 148ish...soya#%@&nara.
Weather fine Tues to Sat. Rain Monday. Post time +/-80 degrees.
Runhappy, Ami's Messa and now Art Collector came out of monster runs at Ellis and weren't given notice.
Arty was near track record and jock says he was in hand.
I missed this real time factor Ellis Park finish with Runhappy at his next at Saratoga 7fl 3 y o. Not with Ami and the filly that beat her in the B Cup ran 2nd to her at Ellis s at 6,5 fl.
Done Deal (d)
Art 2 for 2 and Tiz lost only race at Churchill.
Mention Max Player and Caracaro (both 40/1) but it would be a foolish pleasure to have them above in PP talent to Tizzy and Arty. In ticket construction they will all be key.
I see the race where 19 jocks go after the fav. Early. Target is on his back. And attempt to keep him inside scraping the rail. Nearly herding the NY bred. This action along the rail is where Tiz the Law lost at Churchill.
And again Castellano and Mike Smith can't make their colts run faster than what they can physically produce,but, butski..but ahh, they can conserve and/or not give up 2 maybe 4 riding seconds.
Caracaro,scratched from the derby!
We'll know if Pletcher scratches D. Post from Derby and points him to the Jim Dandy. I believe Rushie is a no go as well.
Might have to hop on Max Player as a closer for a super play, other than Tiz no other horse ran a 1 1/4 race. Maybe Max can pull off a Nehro type of derby and sneak into the trifectas??
Caracaro injured. I put a lot of stock in Castellano's riding. The Derby is one race he has not won. This will become a Derby with the fewest elite jockeys coming into the Derby with the colt that got them there.
I mean, Husker and I got a call to ride.
And in cases where the Derby jockey contingent knows the competitors/mount riding style, this will not be so.
That said. This would be a great betting race on an off track.
The key to handicapping now is to estimate where the runners can be at a mile and an eighth.It will be fast. At that call, the Hopefuls will be there. I don't think a closing lumberer can eat up enough final ground or be close enough at say 148..47 and change.