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Kentucky Derby 2020 DogsUp Diary Triple Crown

Started 2/3/20 by DogsUp; 41531 views.

Msg 263 of 327 to ChiefsCrownChiefsCrown

In reply toRe: msg 262

From: chroses

8/27/20

Chiefs - true story

Msg 264 of 327

In reply toRe: msg 261

From: DogsUp

8/27/20

Arr Collector + TIz the Law become final key say Delta colts with a week to go. Whichever horse is at the mile and an eighth at 148ish...soya#%@&nara.

Weather fine Tues to Sat. Rain Monday. Post time +/-80 degrees.

Runhappy, Ami's Messa and now Art Collector came out of monster runs at Ellis and weren't given notice.

Arty was near track record and jock says he was in hand.

I missed this real time factor Ellis Park finish with Runhappy at his next at Saratoga 7fl 3 y o. Not with Ami and the filly that beat her in the B Cup ran 2nd to her at Ellis s at 6,5 fl.

Done Deal (d)

Edited August 27, 2020 9:31 pm by DogsUp

Msg 265 of 327

In reply toRe: msg 264

From: DogsUp

8/27/20

Art 2 for 2 and Tiz lost only race at Churchill.

Edited August 27, 2020 9:34 pm by DogsUp

Msg 266 of 327

In reply toRe: msg 265

From: DogsUp

8/28/20

Mention Max Player and Caracaro (both 40/1) but it would be a foolish pleasure to have them above in PP talent to Tizzy and Arty. In ticket construction they will all be key.

I see the race where 19 jocks go after the fav. Early. Target is on his back. And attempt to keep him inside scraping the rail. Nearly herding the NY bred. This action along the rail is where Tiz the Law lost at Churchill.

And again Castellano and Mike Smith can't make their colts run faster than what they can physically produce,but, butski..but ahh, they can conserve and/or not give up 2 maybe 4 riding seconds.

Msg 267 of 327 to DogsUpDogsUp

In reply toRe: msg 266

From: ChiefsCrown

8/28/20

Caracaro,scratched from the derby!

We'll know if Pletcher scratches D. Post from Derby and points him to the Jim Dandy. I believe Rushie is a no go as well.

Might have to hop on Max Player as a closer for a super play, other than Tiz no other horse ran a 1 1/4 race. Maybe Max can pull off a Nehro type of derby and sneak into the trifectas??

Msg 268 of 327 to ChiefsCrownChiefsCrown

In reply toRe: msg 267

From: DogsUp

8/28/20

Caracaro injured. I put a lot of stock in Castellano's riding. The Derby is one race he has not won. This will become a Derby with the fewest elite jockeys coming into the Derby with the colt that got them there.

I mean, Husker and I got a call to ride.

And in cases where the Derby jockey contingent knows the competitors/mount riding style, this will not be so.

That said. This would be a great betting race on an off track.

The key to handicapping now is to estimate where the runners can be at a mile and an eighth.It will be fast. At that call, the Hopefuls will be there. I don't think a closing lumberer can eat up enough final ground or be close enough at say 148..47 and change.