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Kentucky Derby 2020 DogsUp Diary   Triple Crown

Started 2/3/20 by DogsUp; 24437 views.
ChiefsCrown

From: ChiefsCrown

Sep-2

Justify breaks the Apollo jinx.......Tiz, first to break the "No wins from gate 17" jinx. 

Posssible up setter here, Honor AP. 3 days till the big dance, hopefully all come home safe!

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Sep-2

ChiefsCrown said...

Justify breaks the Apollo jinx.......Tiz, first to break the "No wins from gate 17" jinx. 

Posssible up setter here, Honor AP. 3 days till the big dance, hopefully all come home safe!

Yes, all historicals are eventually broken.  Has a horse with one eye won yet?  If no then Finnick is due.  :)  
Every time he gets the #1 post he runs 2nd, 3rd or 4th.  Anybody notice that? 

He's in my homebred box so he will be on one of my cheapo tickets by default  

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Sep-2

There were some absolutist math/breeding handicappers (just made that one up)  who absolutely couldn't handle that the math/breeding dosage index predicators could produce a Derby winner with a dosage of 7.Magic number used to be 4 or under. Who bets a genetic number? 

The 2 year old not racing til 3 was just a hard spun stat. As crops get smaller/the # of purchased runners  and less and less races needed to campaign *or no points at all to acquire Derby stall; this one will add in wins number.

Believe it or not I talk to the 1x Derby shooters Derby day and some/they  will  say they are betting the/a colt because of one eye.

And for the 1st time in Derb history (I never bet names, colors, numbers as a bold ruler) my numbers 1,4,6,9 - given a Derby 146 and supply a tri combo + 9.

I envision the 1st woman jockey to win a Derby to come from a racing family and have that magic touch that Steve Cauthen possessed from the get go. Julie Krone could have got the job done.

Here's one for my fond friend Winter: I used to think that Center of Distribution was the Amazon warehouse.

Enjoy our highlight week. (d)

  • Edited September 2, 2020 12:11 pm  by  DogsUp
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Sep-3

DogsUp said...

So I'm say that the infrequent, once a year players will use, almost for sure Tiz The Year ..on top..ro win.

And that's a Rock Hard Ten statement.

Just pray they will be buying the "dross"  and putting money in the pools so the rest of us can snag it.  (talking about things like Super Screener here)   What a joke that thing is. 

It's never ceases to amaze me that those guys will keep making $$ selling it, too, regardless of how many people pass it around for free afterwards. 

CINDY DULAY has great write ups on the KY Derby.   On the ORIGINAL http://www.horse-races.net/

:)   She does such good work!~~~~

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Sep-3

DogsUp said...

There were some absolutist math/breeding handicappers (just made that one up)  who absolutely couldn't handle that the math/breeding dosage index predicators could produce a Derby winner with a dosage of 7.Magic number used to be 4 or under. Who bets a genetic number? 

 

The 2 year old not racing til 3 was just a hard spun stat. As crops get smaller/the # of purchased runners  and less and less races needed to campaign *or no points at all to acquire Derby stall; this one will add in wins number.

Believe it or not I talk to the 1x Derby shooters Derby day and some/they  will  say they are betting the/a colt because of one eye.

And for the 1st time in Derb history (I never bet names, colors, numbers as a bold ruler) my numbers 1,4,6,9 - given a Derby 146 and supply a tri combo + 9.

I envision the 1st woman jockey to win a Derby to come from a racing family and have that magic touch that Steve Cauthen possessed from the get go. Julie Krone could have got the job done.

Here's one for my fond friend Winter: I used to think that Center of Distribution was the Amazon warehouse.

Amazon. Center of Distribution.   Yer killin me here. 

That 4.00 dosage index number is still only the sire side.  A 7.00 horse if balanced properly  in the Mare index can fix that,  except I would not play it in the Belmont.  (the only race I really like and what a disaster this year shortened and all).  Sire-side profiles theory was kinda half-baked til Bill Lathrop came in with the mare side of things.  JMHO. What is interesting is watching, as the horses develop, which side they run to.   Some just pick a side of their breeding and they get stuck there.  Of course they're not aware of this in any way, it's just interesting to watch.   On a wet track I'll take those high dosage numbers every day though.  

This is the probem with having a May race go off in September.  3 year olds make amazing advances in the blink of an eye, esp. the late developers.   Again, keeping nose stuck in PPs, esp. since many of these horses have not raced in a whlle this year, is going to end up being a mistake I think?   How could it not be?  A 3 year old horse is not going to be the same in 100 days or 56 days or 49 days.  

So yeah the age old wisdom about track performance taking precedent, there's only NINE horses in the race this year who have any kind of track performance that is *recent*.   This is why Tiz is going off at lowest odds in 40 years.  W'ere really only comparing him to 9 other horses because the rest of 'em ran like 100 years ago (in terms of 3 year old growth spurts).  

Just something to keep in mind.  This is like playing a sloppy track in a monsoon.  Not a race you spend a lot of $$ on.  Save it for the BC or in my case, Oaklawn in January.  :) 

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Sep-3

DogsUp said...

Believe it or not I talk to the 1x Derby shooters Derby day and some/they  will  say they are betting the/a colt because of one eye.

He's got the 1 post (actually #2 this year) and so his eye that is non-existent will be outward. The ultimate blinker. 

He's actually not "blind" so much as missing an eye.  I guess in horses they don't bother too much with leaving it in there for cosmetics. I wish they would.......I don't like seeing that covered-over hole.   But hey, I would love to see a one-eyed horse do well  in the KY Derby!!!  

Not to be unpatriotic, but the lack of foreign entries makes this somewhat of a yawn fest for me.  That was always the part of the TC races I enjoyed so much.   I will never ever get over Lani's pink go-go boots.

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Sep-3

There's a music standard called 'September Song'  ..lyrics: "It's a long-long time, from May to September."

Although the last - 2019 Derby ended as a conundrum to sort the true finish results out. And this, a historical upside down musical chairs Derby sequence...Dogs will really savor the day.

Only Derby (game) in Town.

Agree, over the years,  Dogs developed a liking for pond shippers. 

Yeah..my eye comment was only about newbies punting tickets based on personal tropisms.

Ahh I've wore glasses since 10 years old. All the time. Can't see zht without them..close or far...so maybe the one eye horse I'll drop in a vertical bet 

Pedigreestar

From: Pedigreestar

Sep-4

My Top 4 choices from which winner can emerge.
Tiz The Law
Authentic
Ny Traffic
Enforceable
My First Choice is Authentic. I am using purely Pedigree analysis and Cosmological aspects of the day as well as race track. 
Pedigree star

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

Sep-4

D. Wayne is in his twilight years yet still gets up and goes to CD every morning at 4:30 am.  Except for the two weeks he had COVID-19.  I was never a huge fan of his back in his heyday but man what a karma bet!  

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Sep-4

Yes Wayne also schooled Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert 

He is definitely a man's man.

Ah....sometimes when he got to the track he didn't go to bed the night before. 

Likes to go to the morning works on horseback.

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