This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.
Latest 9/22/20 by DogsUp
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There were some absolutist math/breeding handicappers (just made that one up) who absolutely couldn't handle that the math/breeding dosage index predicators could produce a Derby winner with a dosage of 7.Magic number used to be 4 or under. Who bets a genetic number?
The 2 year old not racing til 3 was just a hard spun stat. As crops get smaller/the # of purchased runners and less and less races needed to campaign *or no points at all to acquire Derby stall; this one will add in wins number.
Believe it or not I talk to the 1x Derby shooters Derby day and some/they will say they are betting the/a colt because of one eye.
And for the 1st time in Derb history (I never bet names, colors, numbers as a bold ruler) my numbers 1,4,6,9 - given a Derby 146 and supply a tri combo + 9.
I envision the 1st woman jockey to win a Derby to come from a racing family and have that magic touch that Steve Cauthen possessed from the get go. Julie Krone could have got the job done.
Here's one for my fond friend Winter: I used to think that Center of Distribution was the Amazon warehouse.
Amazon. Center of Distribution. Yer killin me here.
That 4.00 dosage index number is still only the sire side. A 7.00 horse if balanced properly in the Mare index can fix that, except I would not play it in the Belmont. (the only race I really like and what a disaster this year shortened and all). Sire-side profiles theory was kinda half-baked til Bill Lathrop came in with the mare side of things. JMHO. What is interesting is watching, as the horses develop, which side they run to. Some just pick a side of their breeding and they get stuck there. Of course they're not aware of this in any way, it's just interesting to watch. On a wet track I'll take those high dosage numbers every day though.
This is the probem with having a May race go off in September. 3 year olds make amazing advances in the blink of an eye, esp. the late developers. Again, keeping nose stuck in PPs, esp. since many of these horses have not raced in a whlle this year, is going to end up being a mistake I think? How could it not be? A 3 year old horse is not going to be the same in 100 days or 56 days or 49 days.
So yeah the age old wisdom about track performance taking precedent, there's only NINE horses in the race this year who have any kind of track performance that is *recent*. This is why Tiz is going off at lowest odds in 40 years. W'ere really only comparing him to 9 other horses because the rest of 'em ran like 100 years ago (in terms of 3 year old growth spurts).
Just something to keep in mind. This is like playing a sloppy track in a monsoon. Not a race you spend a lot of $$ on. Save it for the BC or in my case, Oaklawn in January. :)
DogsUp said...Believe it or not I talk to the 1x Derby shooters Derby day and some/they will say they are betting the/a colt because of one eye.
He's got the 1 post (actually #2 this year) and so his eye that is non-existent will be outward. The ultimate blinker.
He's actually not "blind" so much as missing an eye. I guess in horses they don't bother too much with leaving it in there for cosmetics. I wish they would.......I don't like seeing that covered-over hole. But hey, I would love to see a one-eyed horse do well in the KY Derby!!!
Not to be unpatriotic, but the lack of foreign entries makes this somewhat of a yawn fest for me. That was always the part of the TC races I enjoyed so much. I will never ever get over Lani's pink go-go boots.
There's a music standard called 'September Song' ..lyrics: "It's a long-long time, from May to September."
Although the last - 2019 Derby ended as a conundrum to sort the true finish results out. And this, a historical upside down musical chairs Derby sequence...Dogs will really savor the day.
Only Derby (game) in Town.
Agree, over the years, Dogs developed a liking for pond shippers.
Yeah..my eye comment was only about newbies punting tickets based on personal tropisms.
Ahh I've wore glasses since 10 years old. All the time. Can't see zht without them..close or far...so maybe the one eye horse I'll drop in a vertical bet
My Top 4 choices from which winner can emerge.
Tiz The Law
My First Choice is Authentic. I am using purely Pedigree analysis and Cosmological aspects of the day as well as race track.
D. Wayne is in his twilight years yet still gets up and goes to CD every morning at 4:30 am. Except for the two weeks he had COVID-19. I was never a huge fan of his back in his heyday but man what a karma bet!
Yes Wayne also schooled Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert
He is definitely a man's man.
Ah....sometimes when he got to the track he didn't go to bed the night before.
Likes to go to the morning works on horseback.
Hey welcome..I came to this site many furlongs ago. Mostly to understand the breeding aspects of the sport
If along the way you can explain breeding to the interested that would be a contribution.
Unless one explains; a nic is something I get when I shave.
Not astrological but .
My 'feel in the big one tomorrow is what are the chances of 7 in a row favs win Derby. Saddle cloth 17 never won. No crowd.
I'm lookin' at the unusual switch in riders due to pandemic. And hopping to get 'lucky.
Elevation jockey Castellano. Out-jocks the jocks aboard a colt that could race in a non winners of 2..and hits board..underneath at least single in vertical bet, after Tizzy on topsie..Will be shocker for Tiz to get in trouble unless he finds himself engulfed against the rail. Here is Castellano riding in American Pharoahs Travers defeat
Definitely I am a Breeder, Owner and Pedigree Research Analyst from Mumbai India. I have done research in Pedigree of thoroughbreds and mainly use Dosage System and improved by me using astrological science. Lets wait and watch and the we can discuss more.
Hi Pedigree star,
Yes, I remember you, you always come and make a contribution here. A very "mystical" one at that.
Ther'es been a wealth of pedigree information over the years here, but unforntuately, the software on this forum only archives 3 months. That means anything and everything that is older than 3 months here is GONE FOREVER.
Which is almost enough to bring tears to my eyes, really, because the level of research, data, and work that went into some of the posts here wer quite valuable and astounding. To me, it's sort of like having a library burn to the ground. Yes, that's how I feel so I may as well just say it.
By the way, if you live in India, I love the Chandra soap. I use it all the time. You know, the green soap that has the wonderful sandalwood smell. I hear it's quite popular in India?
So, unless you copied it out every year.........alas. I can't even do a search on my OWN STUFF from last couple of years.