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Rebel - Excession   Triple Crown

Started Mar-16 by Wintertrian; 324 views.
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Mar-16

I am not redboarding, I didn't see this til the last minute and was having a very hard time figuring out the Rebel, cuz it seemed to me that any horse in here could have hit the superfecta. 

I'm just posting this to show how a "longshot player" thinks.   I consider myself a longshot player, because over the years that is what I've made the most $$ on, esp. in exotics 

I kept looking at this horse and trying to figure out WHY Asmussen entered him.  First thought was rabbit for his other 2 horses.  But  realized there was plenty of speed in this race and he was no speedster. 

Why enter him?  He's been running since July.  He hasn't had a break, racing every month, with no layoffs.  He can't seem to win a race.  So why?  Why not just choose this time to lay him off?  

I looked at my Brisnet again, and up in upper right hand corner "best speed at distance".  There he is. What????? 

Okay, put the PPs down.  There is no reason to run this horse, unless he can hit the board.  Maybe Asmussen wanted to bring it for the owner, who was probably getting tired of paying bills on a horse who never wins.  THIS was his 1-1/16th Rebel Stake horse.  I email a buddy of mine here....was also wondering about coach because he hated turf with every fiber of his being, yet had a gorgeous pedigree (best in the race IMHO) but trainer screwed him up, never figured out his horse. 

I also thought Silver Prospector and Theorum were possibly declining in form ......I KNOW theorum was.   I don't like Silver Prospector that much in first place, he has no shot in the KY Derby IMHO.    (Do not think for a moment Asmussen doesn't know his horses and where they stand.....he knows).    And I didn't bet on Three Techniques in the previous races, which was fatal for my tickets, and yes,  in the paddock he was very impressive looking long-bodied router. But intution, I just have been unable to warm up to him AND Englehart hasn't done well at OP at all this meet........he's done pretty poorly actually. ) 

So  I made my ex ticket Nadal, No Parole, Excession, Basin.  Wny not, cheap ticket. 

And hit it.   

And there was a moment there I thought Excession would beat Nadal...he did so good.....but Nadal is a *superhorse*.   Make no doubt about that.  He can sprint past everyone in a short race, and his pedigree says he can win the Belmont.  Forget Baffert's other horses, this is his TC horse and he pretty much has telegraphed that in every way. 

 

In reply toRe: msg 1
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Mar-16

I did this exact same thing in the 2010 Rebel.   I used D. Wayne Lukas' *other* horse.  Will Take Charge won at 28-1 and paid $58.  

Oxbow had already won the LeComte Stakes and had some points.  And Will Take Charge had already won the Smarty Jones, so they were both already on the leaderboard, so either one of them could run ITM....why he entered both.    I just took the one with the higher odds, simply for the (maybe dumb) reason that i am a longshot player.

Like Asmussen and Baffert always do, they try to get MORE THAN ONE of their horses into to the KY Derby.  That's what you gotta watch.  More than 1 horse = more than 1 horse to win from your barn. 

 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Mar-17

as you know already at Oaklawn, Asmussen sometimes enters multiple horses in a race

and one that gets overlooked is a Mudder,savvy enough just in case its a off track enter him.

Sometimes the mudder might be his best entrant.

I thought you hit the tri before the race with the strategy you used on another site.

Plus2lbs

From: Plus2lbs

Apr-1

Had him picked for the Lecomte back in the Fairgrounds post..since deleted after I saw yours..

Don't consider that redboarding..lol..

I dont recall why in particularly. Happens all the time. Horse comes back and scores after I had it penciled in prior. Should maybe start a virtual stable..not much reason now..

Anyway.....

Best O' Health.

  • Edited April 1, 2020 6:39 pm  by  Plus2lbs
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