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Now that there's a new date, new time of year, some crafty trainers may be implementing some unique strategies. The previous road to Derby process included specific races/workout regimes.....and timing that Pletcher/Baffert and others would employ almost without thought. But to peak at the beginning of Sept. is brand new, and there may be a couple not yet noticed.
Raes, any that you have seen that may fit the bill? Dogs? Smarty?
My thoughts......Haskell and BG are just too far off to train up to. I think the Ellis Park Derby will be the key race, perfectly situated 4 weeks off, while the Shared Belief in Del Mar, being 5 weeks off, is good, but only 1 1/6 mile is not so good. Still, should be important....the Pegasus at Monmouth is interesting, being 3 weeks out, but only 20 pt race, we'll see who needs to race.
I'm looking at a few who showed promise early, now getting back into racing.....like Meru, possibly Max Player, maybe Collusion Illusion....and certainly Caracaro.
I think we will need to look outside the box even more this year!
I would look to Winter and Raes and wouldn't discount their info.
I haven't looked at many this year and its tough when we have fractured crops from years of abuse
and many breakdown that look like they could be elite runners and producers.
Many have Tiz the Law on top, i have Honor AP and I would suggest to look who is left on the trail
that raced Maxfield that might be a good tool.And survivors of bafferts off the trail might be worth a look
and of course bafferts left overs and the good hands on trainers who don't rush to the tc trail.
Haskell could be a place for an emerging colt. The race includes Breeders Cup spot for winner.
Three under the radar colts come to mind for the derby....Bafferts two...1000 words, 8 Rings and my UTR horse Ny Traffic.
Probably have a few forgotten runners in the gate in September.
I have several very under the radar......so far under, they may not even enter a race that would get them to the Derby! But here goes....
Still hunting for a few others, my main consideration is a horse who showed promised, that is now back in training. Add to the list if you dare!
Eyeball their chances to make the 20 with enough points to get a gate in the Derby. Or, And the chances in the Derby putting up...$200,000 supplemental; perhaps the situation. Expenses. And 10% to Jockey ..trainer.
Normally the Belmont Stakes is $50,000. This year $15,000. But purse is million, down from million.5.
Horses that go into Derby and obviously owners will have a heads up of what they are up against. Versus coming into Derby in May as having made the 20 cut..and a lifelong adventure story to tell. The 20th guy in is the most happy..Ahh
Points in Bel Stks..which never had p o I n t s is way high and KOs some that would be in. And if Tis ran out..be unhappy campers.
Mystic Guide is a guy I have been looking at for a while
Liking Pool 3...70/1+..on Max.
Hes in the picture frame anyway.
Like him a lot, should run at Ellis Park in 6 weeks, then make the gate at CD.....has 40 pts. now, I believe, should be enough.....Circa (best sports book in Vegas) had him at 100-1 right before the race.