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Long shot ITM   General Discussions

Started Aug-2 by Northof64; 1263 views.
Northof64

From: Northof64

Aug-2

Usually a bomb comes in to help make the exotics juicier. Thought I would start a thread for that.  Looking at Prince’s thread about top 10 I see no one has mentioned my flier yet even in their top ten! I like Major Fed to finish ITM at a price. His last 2 he had some trouble but no fault of his own and still finished well. Nice closing kick to pick up the pieces late. Reminds me of the Commanding Curve year which was my first signer . Love that he is coming in under the radar,,,,, until now.  I know zappers are late bloomers but I guess that suites well for this year year!  Hanging around 16 in derby points so hoping he makes it in.       North

Gerh

From: Gerh

Aug-3

I like him a little bit but it looks like he may not run again before the derby.

In reply toRe: msg 2
Northof64

From: Northof64

Aug-5

Yes I see that.  Not sure how to take it.  Just like King G. Probably a negative.  Also will be watching NY Traffic and South Bend.  South Bend is under the care of Mott now and has one of the Ortiz boys for the mount so he may be a great flier pick this weekend at the Travers but boy he is up against it with Tiz, Uncle Chuck and others. 

North

Gerh

From: Gerh

Aug-5

I think South Bend is very live in there

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Aug-8

I bet Fed in all his races, disappointed, but not giving up on him, have a small wager on him in futures.  I actually think he could win the KY Derby.  He's got "the stuff" IMHO. 

For the Travers I like South Bend,because he's an omni-surface stakes winner, and i have a thing about horses who can win on multiple surfaces, like Einstein, et. al.     I also like Caracaro and Max Player (all those nice phipps breds on his female side)----Caracaro and Country Grammar are similar horses to me except Country doesn't need the points.  

So,  ones in this race who already made the derby gate will not be pushed.  So keep that in mind.  Unless you think they are just running for stakes money.   Tiz is going to sustain a lot of pressure....too much IMHO but he may be supremely talented so there's that.  

I wish they were not running Shivaree here. He really needs a break, 13 races already.   I have a special place in my heart for him as same breeder who bred Jackson Bend, one of my all time favorite horses. 

Gerh

From: Gerh

Aug-8

If South Bend can hit the top 3 here,it would be worth taking a future bet on him.Travers is interesting;it’s still important as a stallion making race so I don’t think anyone will be treating it as a workout

In reply toRe: msg 6
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Aug-8

Came in exactly how I said, just use the horses who needed points to make the Derby gate, (leaving out the over-hyped baffert) and add Tiz, that was superfecta.    

sometimes it's almost too easy to think how they think, but it doesn't pay anyway, which is why I never play SAR, chalky and ortiz brothers and saez win everything.  

I played 4, 7 and 8  and put tiz 2nd in each spot.   Those are only 4 horses I played, but I lost because I was going for value by not putting tiz first.  Cheap bet. 

In reply toRe: msg 7
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Aug-8

sometimes you really have to wonder about the riders.

Race 12, SAR.  Both Ortiz Bros and Saez won or placed all day. 


So I went thru the card to find jocks who had not won yet today or had only won 1 race. 

Easy ticket construction.  Left off the no-hoper jock/horse (20-1 and 43-1) what was left was franco, cardenas and carouche and that's exactly how the trifecta came in. 

The reason I bring this up is you almost have  to think the jocks "let" the other jocks win this one.  There's really no other explanation is there?.  I mean I played it just on that theory and that's how the $130 tri came in. Easy $$

This isn't the first time I've done this, by the way.  Also there's been a few out in CA where Mike Smith hung around til last race.  Not on a big day.  Mike Smith doesn't stick around to last race of the day, at his own track when he hasn't been brought in to someplace else for a big stakes race........not a jockey like that.  So that is always a win bet ---this works. 

Gerh

From: Gerh

Aug-8

I didn’t even bother to bet it.Thought Uncle Chuck was overrated and couldn’t see anyone beating Tiz the Law.Impressive performance.Max Player and South Bend ran well considering the fractions

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Aug-9

On the last day of the Spa meet a bug boy(s) will win a race(s).

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