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Long shot ITM   General Discussions

Started Aug-2 by Northof64; 1526 views.
Gerh

From: Gerh

Aug-8

If South Bend can hit the top 3 here,it would be worth taking a future bet on him.Travers is interesting;it’s still important as a stallion making race so I don’t think anyone will be treating it as a workout

In reply toRe: msg 6
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Aug-8

Came in exactly how I said, just use the horses who needed points to make the Derby gate, (leaving out the over-hyped baffert) and add Tiz, that was superfecta.    

sometimes it's almost too easy to think how they think, but it doesn't pay anyway, which is why I never play SAR, chalky and ortiz brothers and saez win everything.  

I played 4, 7 and 8  and put tiz 2nd in each spot.   Those are only 4 horses I played, but I lost because I was going for value by not putting tiz first.  Cheap bet. 

In reply toRe: msg 7
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Aug-8

sometimes you really have to wonder about the riders.

Race 12, SAR.  Both Ortiz Bros and Saez won or placed all day. 


So I went thru the card to find jocks who had not won yet today or had only won 1 race. 

Easy ticket construction.  Left off the no-hoper jock/horse (20-1 and 43-1) what was left was franco, cardenas and carouche and that's exactly how the trifecta came in. 

The reason I bring this up is you almost have  to think the jocks "let" the other jocks win this one.  There's really no other explanation is there?.  I mean I played it just on that theory and that's how the $130 tri came in. Easy $$

This isn't the first time I've done this, by the way.  Also there's been a few out in CA where Mike Smith hung around til last race.  Not on a big day.  Mike Smith doesn't stick around to last race of the day, at his own track when he hasn't been brought in to someplace else for a big stakes race........not a jockey like that.  So that is always a win bet ---this works. 

Gerh

From: Gerh

Aug-8

I didn’t even bother to bet it.Thought Uncle Chuck was overrated and couldn’t see anyone beating Tiz the Law.Impressive performance.Max Player and South Bend ran well considering the fractions

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Aug-9

On the last day of the Spa meet a bug boy(s) will win a race(s).

In reply toRe: msg 1
Northof64

From: Northof64

Sep-3

Started this thread a month ago. Still like fed a little. The two others I have warmed up to and would include (if i had an otb) would be attachment rate and money moves. Will not be betting for first time in many many years. TTL seems over the top with most of these and i cant justify a 2 hour drive to milwaukee to try and beat him. Good luck to all. North

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Sep-3

I'll go with J J  Castellano out-jocking the 7 or more rider switches as well as the rest of the pack.

All these Derby jocks know how to ride a horse very well.

Castellano knows When to ride a horse.

JJ is a a switch rider from one Derby qualifier scratched to another.

  • Edited September 3, 2020 5:53 pm  by  DogsUp
RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Sep-3

I like Attachment Rate and/or Max Player to hit the board. The post positions are going to play a role I think. However, TTL wins in a canter!

Msg 1488.14 deleted
RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Sep-3

Something just dawned on me that I had forgotten. I recall some turf horses that performed well in the Derby, not necessarily for the win, but to add good value to supers. I am now rethinking Sole Volante for my exotics.

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