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Preakness draw tomorrow @ 12 noon.
Lets get this show going!!!
Yeah..Yay! The third act of the 3 act play is here.
Robby Albarado assumes.. gets a mount in a TC race this time. As the replacement jock for circumstances; instead of losing one. Specifically, Robby was the jock for Animal Kingdom in the Ky Derby, replaced by now 2020 Preak fav jockey Johnny V by the way. Then insult to injury (Robby was injured and off his Derby mount) Animal Kingdom goes on to win mega$ in Dubai bash. Rosario rode.
Rob would have earned about $700,000. $8?. for the 2 misfortune races, if he was up in the irons and got AC home in time.
Picks up Ken McPeak's philly. Drops down 5 lbs filly allowance.
But. And..and this is the career boosting race of a lifetime to reestablish Robbie's present skill sets as G1 big race rider. Presently in a career dip.
And that's what will be in his head come the 1st Sat. in Oct.
Always liked the guy when he was up (Curlin and more) or when he didn't keep his cool. And when one loses their head..their azz goes with it. I really look forward to see the outcome of his mental emotional ride.
2. Art Collector
3. Jesus' Team
5. Mr. Big News
8. Happy Saver
9. Dr. Post
10. Swiss Skydiver
11. Thousand Words
12. King Guillermo
13. Mystic Guide
Did I miss any? Although I listed 14 possible starters, I don't think half are possible winners. 3, 4, 6, 9, and 14 are a notch below, 5 needs more distance, and 12 is ill-prepared, in my opinion. Of the remaining seven, I think the winner comes from 1,2, 7, and 8. I don't see a long shot winning this race. Authentic is the likely winner, but I don't think we've seen Art Collector's best, and a couple others are on the improve, particularly, Pneumatic and Happy Saver.
Well happy saver and king are not going since you wrote this. I better wait for PPs to come out.
Is No Parole running?
Preakness not a terribly interesting race for me, never has been.
I figure Asmussen has 3 in the race, so you have to use 1.
And you probably have to use 1 of the Bafferts. (I would use TW for the value)
IF there are *longshots* to win it, that could be liveyourbeastlife, jesus' team, or swissskydiver (weird picks I know, I am using a new theory so don't ask LOL)
Upon further review, even though I think there are only a few win prospects in here, I think any of them could wind up in the exotics. There are only 11 beyer points separating the best performances of these horses(94-105). This is what I think about the field, presented in no particular order.
Liveyourbeastlife, who you like, is thought of as a horse that likes to be forwardly placed, but I think he has shown the ability to fall back and make a big run. Getting the outside post, that bodes well. There's a lot of speed signed on here. Trying to get near the pace from the 11 hole, would probably hang him out while and seal his fate.
I wish I could support Excession, because I really liked his Rebel. That may have been Nadal's least impressive win, and the slop may have played a role, but Excession rallied well, albeit against a slow finish by the winner. Still, after surgery and such a long layoff, I can't support him. In a normal year, his layoff would be akin to entering the Derby off the BC Juvenile or something.
Max Player is second start after a trainer change. Is that an angle? I like Linda Rice. I think he'll do his regular plodder run, and probably fill out the bottom of the super or Hi-5.
Jesus' Team is a decent horse, but there are too many others that I would place in front of him. That's not to say he won't get a great trip, or the that the race won't fall apart, placing him in the money. I'll pass though.
NY Traffic looked like a real long shot contender off his Haskell placing. They're not machines, so I am willing to excuse his poor Derby showing. He may have regressed a bit off a career in best two back. A bounce back race could make him a player. I would not dismiss.
Thousand Words is not a horse I particularly like. Not that he's not talented, he just impressed me as Baffert's fourth of fifth best horse. After losing Nadal and Charlatan, then Uncle Chuck flopping, he was left along with Authentic. I am not one particularly moved by his Shared Belief. That race was virtually a match race that took Honor AP out of his game. Plus, why is he getting blinkers back on? He'll have to beat me.
Authentic is the horse to beat, of course. I don't think any of the other speed can challenge him on the front end and hang around. Therefore, I don't think anyone will. He probably gets an uncontested lead again. It may be crisp, but his cruising speed is very high. I have to watch how the track is playing in the dirt races leading up to the Preakness, to see if any bias exists that might affect his chances.
Pneumatic made a significant step forward in his last if you believe the numbers. His competition wasn't great. Does he have another forward move in him? If so, he's a player. I won't be putting him on top. The pace scenario he got in his best race is far from what he'll get Saturday.
Art Collector will be the deserving second choice. He is an obviously talented horse. Although his numbers haven't been through the roof, he certainly looks like a horse that hasn't been asked for his best. He will play the role vacated by Tiz The Law, as he will probably seek to pounce at the top of the stretch. Will he have better success? Authentic's race in the Derby would have defeated a whole lot of Derby winners over the year, if you go by the race time. Art Collector will be included on top of my tri and/or super ticket.
Mr. Big News is an interesting horse. He obviously is one that relishes distance. He will get a little less in the Preakness, but probably will have to contend with less traffic as well. He had to make much of his run wide. Still he loomed threateningly at the top of stretch, where I thought the lost ground cost him. If the exotics are to play big, he may be the horse to have on top. The more I look at him, the more I like him. If his odds are 8-1 or above, I will also place a decent sized win bet on him.
Swiss Skydiver is by Daredevil(More Than Ready), so I would love for her to win it all. Yes, Art Collector beat her in the Bluegrass, but if the numbers are accurate, that was her poorest effort in her last 5 races. She also got beat in the Oaks, but some people question the ride. I think Shedaresthedevil is just getting really good right now. The race was run in legitimately fast time. She did not regress. I really loved her 10f race in the Alabama. I would like for her to relax early, something she usually doesn't get a chance to do, then see what she can do from just off the pace. I hope her odds drift up around 8 or 10-1.
That's my assessment of this year's Preakness horses. One final thought relates to the jockeys. A lot of the top jocks will not be there. There are some lesser known riders in race, who have good numbers, but perhaps not in big races. It will be interesting to see how these guys handle the spotlight.
Nice post ...what was that...
bout a Thousand Words.
Thanks. Hope it adds to the discussion so someone can make some money come Saturday!
My betting on the KD was 25% of what I normally bet on the Derby. I never bet much on the Preakness as it usually is ran. No short turnaround this time, but I still will probably bet less than I normally would have bet on Preakness. Probably mostly straight bet P# and straight tri/super. Mostly singles.
First glance on Preakness, probably will look to Art Collector as I liked him coming into the KD. Never thrilled about mishaps, but he did come back with a decent work. MBN is one I may chalk off on the no repeat of the KD. Derby price will not be there this time. Pneumatic is one I was looking at underneath in the KD and will here as well at little better price.
Like you're assessment of the Preakness runners. Starting with Skydiver....I like her in this but not the jock. Albarado? McPeek could have found a better jock. Possible 3rd place at best.
Thousand Words...Cashed a ton of scratch tix with him in the derby. I have Words as one of two possible winners.
Authentic....Odds on favorite, the other possible winner.
Excession....I can picture this one to blow up tris and supers.
Max, Jesus's Team, Beast, Pneumatic....Leaving them off my tix.
Art Collector...Can see him in a speed dual with Authentic and fading down the stretch.
Big News & Traffic....Lower exotics.
Any one familiar with Arabians? I thought it was funny several in that race were WAY behind in their previous races. Do they occasionally just quit?
I tried to cut and paste one of the lines but that did not work. One horse was 6th in his last and 79 lengths behind in a 10f race. and in that horses first race, he was 37 lengths behind and was not last at 6f. Many others with races 30,.. 40,.. 50 lengths behind. I don't think I have ever seen so many horses in a race be so far behind so often.