This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.
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Weather 60s, usually the temperature when most track records are made. The Sunday through Sat of the week has just Thursday as rain at this writing. BTW Keenland water drainage drains out not toward the rail. Giving that along a Keenland wet meet a hard good running surface on the inside 6 slots. And whereas we will have big fields 14 max. And foreign shippers.
Off the top. Classic race. Delta horse has to be Maximum Security. Top money winner ever and substantial win record.
I have been begun my preliminary handicapping into the BC races. I noticed something, but before I go too far down that proverbial "rabbit hole", I thought I should come here and see if someone has already looked at this particular angle.
I looked at the last 10 winners of the Dirt Distaff and Classic races, and of the 20 winners, only one; Forever Unbridled, entered the race with fewer than four starts. As a matter of fact, only 2 or 3 entered the race with as few as four starts. It seems that most winners had started 5 or 6 times before the big race. Now I haven't got any data relative to how many starts are common. I assume that for most horses, the Distaff or the Classic is their 6th or 7th start, which might account for the numbers. Has anyone out there looked at this potential angle before?
I'm just wondering if I can use this information to downgrade Dunbar Road, and Monomoy Girl in the Distaff, or Tom's d'Tat or Happy Saver in the Classic, or if I should extend my "investigation" to other BC races. On the other end of the spectrum, Swiss Skydiver is looking at a 10th start, which hasn't produced a winner in the same time frame. Maybe there weren't too many others that tried, but I remember Asmussen shutting down Rachel after a nine race campaign. Maybe it was the synthetic track and Zenyatta that shaped his thinking, or maybe it was her race in the Woodward that showed him that she was about done. Any thoughts?
The way; IMO, to view the few races contender has against those with a significant number of class and Graded races conundrum is comparable to a boxing champion.
The Champ boxer will in most to all cases have more fights under his belt and purse money won.
But...if he loses by KO or decision...it is:
To a challenger who has earned less purse money and Less Fights in most to all cases..
Ali and Tyson won their first Championship Belt at about fight number 20. Climbing the ladder they fought opponents with 30 to 40 fights to their one digit to teens fights.
This racing situation, lightly raced contenders with high performance vs facing fields with a greater number of past performances perhaps will always be a piaffe before the horses leave the gate for an answer.
Accordingly one's feel for the game, brain-gut decisions, experience, and personal handicapping style, ticket construction, risk/reward money:bankroll. Are the recipe. Action in the recipe should never be part of the process.
To All: Hoofnote anecdotal: BC days racing day connection strategies are not to get ready for the next bigger race. (d)
One has to be sort of All In mentally for a field in front of them. Tosses are tough to surrender in Tris or supers. That said while keying a winner and couple seconds then all. And moving the combos around.
If Tiz the Law does the Zig Zag Shuffle as seen in the Derby; it may cost him a board position.
Derb winner, 2nd Preak may be tiring as exhibited in 2nd Preak.
I think the Tiz the Law shuffle you saw in the Derby stretch might have been a sign that his very tough campaign was taking his toll. I believe that skipping the Preakness was wise, and I think he is capable of bouncing back with a big effort. Nevertheless, I am leaning towards Tom for now.
I looked at the last 10 winners of the Dirt Distaff and Classic races, and of the 20 winners, only one; Forever Unbridled., entered the race with fewer than four starts. As a matter of fact, only 2 or 3 entered the race with as few as four starts.
I use that angle and this year I suggest adding the furlongs of the works with the disruptions this year.
Suggest looking for late starting 3 yr olds on the improve.
The video is available to see Tiz the Law made a self imposed maneuver.
That cost him the win and the money and superlative record. Beyond that it reduced his stud fee.
Dogs pointed out this quirk before the Derby. It had more moderation.. And I think it will happen again as he will do it earlier at the distance due to the caliber of the BCC field.
How do you determine that it is “self imposed”, as opposed to being due to fatigue?
Late starting 3 year old...that would suggest Happy Saver! Not enough starts though.
The colt Tiz the Law in the stretch in the Derby is not switching leads incorrectly. He is not bothered by other field runners. Throughout the race, until he does the in-place zig zag he is running straight in concert with the jockey. The jockey certainly did not make rein-boot- stirip-weight shift to execute the move. Wears shadow role in races and AM works.
There are many actions a horse can do on his/her own volition.
The colt was not tiring in terms of a race call. He continued on with effort after the move.
If TtL had thrown in the anchor and faded there would be no need to give it attention. The zig zag cost 2 or 3 seconds. Then he carried on in a closing fashion.