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BC Classic 2020   Breeders' Cup

Started Oct-29 by RAESFAN; 2910 views.
RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Oct-29

I look forward to the BC Classic, and the feedback of the good people on this site approaching the races. So let me start the discussion:

Authentic – Dangerous if left alone on the lead. I don’t think he gets an uncontested pace unless he goes really fast, in which case he could be fried.

By My Standards – Solid, consistent horse. He should definitely be in your bets. Tom’s d’Etat and Improbable defeated him easily in his two losses, but perhaps more notable was that in those races, he didn’t have his regular rider, Gabriel Saez.

Global Campaign – Well bred, talented runner. Bad feet have kept him from putting together consecutive races that would allow him to develop into the horse he could potentially be.

Higher Power – This is not the same race in which he finished a distant third last November. This field is much deeper.

Improbable – Probable favorite, and deservedly so. He has matured a great deal. However, he either wins near the pace, or coming wide from off the pace. Which style will he employ? I think the pace will be faster than he wants to attend. But the likely group of horses that will be near the pace, should hang around.

Maximum Security – May be the most talented horse when on his game. I don’t know if he has looked his best under Baffert. Very different training regimen, that he may not yet have adjusted to. Definite contender at his best.

Swiss Skydiver – I am not going to be caught off guard again by this horse. If she goes in this spot, I think she is tactical enough to be a legitimate contender for the win. Her odds will determine what I do with her.

Tacitus – This horse should be green instead of gray, as he eats a lot of money! Not mine! I do respect Bill Mott, and assume he had a reason for putting this horse close to or on the lead in his last two races after running perhaps his best race three back a few lengths off a tepid pace. I think he wants to make one run, unless Mott wanted to put more in his tank by making him work more in those preps. Maybe he’ll return to his preferred tactics in the Classic.

Title Ready – He’s by More Than Ready, but I can’t find anything that makes me think he’ll be in the top four. He has won one race since 2018, and that was not a stakes race. I know Dallas Stewart has worked magic to get long shots in the money, but I can’t see it here, even though his Fayette at Keenland wasn’t terrible.

Tiz the Law – I really like this horse. According to Tagg, he is not crazy about Churchill Downs. His only losses last year and this year were at that track. He didn’t run poorly in either, but he wasn’t his usual dominant self. Coincidence? He’s never raced at Keenland, so there’s that. His biggest drop in Bris numbers occurred when given the shortest time between races, at the longest distances(10F). I think Tagg was smart to skip the Preakness. I expect to see a strong Tiz the Law, who could win this at a decent price.

Tom’s d’Etat – I really like this old guy, but his limited starts concern me based on race history. He’s run well fresh, and maybe as a 7 year old he needs a limited schedule. I have a good friend that likes to say, “Don’t train them, bet them!”. Al Stall Jr. is a good trainer, so maybe he will be poised to run his best race. At one time I did think he was the best dirt horse in North America. Can I afford to let him beat me? Don’t think so.

Early Picks to win: 1) Tiz the Law 2) Tom’s d’Etat 3) Improbable

2nd Tier: 1) Maximum Security 2) Swiss Skydiver

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Oct-29

Raes how many 7 years old have won the Classic ?

ChiefsCrown

From: ChiefsCrown

Oct-29

No 7 year olds won the BC Classic. Tom's d'Etat would be the first.

9 five year olds have won, Accelerate being the last.

Baffert had 3 three year olds win 3 years in a row. 

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Oct-30

That is my greatest concern. However, I would counter, how many seven year olds have competed, and were they realistic contenders?

Gerh

From: Gerh

Oct-30

He is a must use for me.He shows u every time and should be a decent price.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Oct-30

Not many!  Must be a good reason for that. 6 yr olds struggle to win also.

Compare it to a 40 year old Usain Bolt racing cream of the crop 28 year olds.

Hell he might get a piece. 

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Oct-30

Frank Horwill, a top track coach in the UK determined that the age of peak performance in the marathon is between 30 and 37 years of age. A little different than with sprints. That's with humans.

It's a little different with horses. I looked up track records at a bunch of tracks, and older horses have more records at sprint distances than at route distances. In fact at Fair Meadows, the 4f record is :43 1/5, set by an 11 year old(Oklahoma Natural). What would he be, a 70 year old Usain Bolt?

Strangely enough, the record at 2 mile dirt races is held by a 7 year old(Kelso). We wouldn't expect a lot of records to be held by 7 year olds, because most of the best ones have gone off to the breeding shed by then. The key to Tom's d'Etat, and other old guys may be a less strenuous schedule, and more recovery time between races. Given the fact that his numbers match up with his competition, I'm not afraid to give him a shot.

In studying the last ten years of BC racing, I seem to pick up a trend that the horses that have won with the biggest numbers are the ones that ran quite a few races, and their biggest numbers, sometimes by a large margin, were right around their BC race. The horses that had fewer starts and won, often did so with lower numbers. Of course there were exceptions like Liam's Map, who was just a beast, able to put up big numbers after only a few starts. 

I will for most of the races, look for lightly raced, short priced horses with lower numbers, and bet against them. Incidentally, Skip Away and Concerned earned two of the highest numbers in the history of the Classic, in both cases career highs, after more than 10 starts on the year. Maybe trainers need to be more old school and race these horses, 

As for age, that won't be a factor for me. Exceptional beings often prove to be the exception to the rule.

  • Edited October 30, 2020 8:32 pm  by  RAESFAN
PISTOL9

From: PISTOL9

Oct-31

I think some older horses have hit the board, not many wins.  I usually take a good look at those underneath.

Authentic I believe got a -3tg if I read it correct.  They have them up on TG site for Preakness day for free.  That is a huge number. but the alchemist does have a way of not bouncing.  I am leading to GC right now, has about everything I look for, especially compared to others.  I did not know about the feet, have to look into that.  When did the Woodward start doing 10f?  I always thought it was 9f.

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Oct-31

The Woodward has been around a while, and has been run at 9, 10, and 12 furlongs.

In reply toRe: msg 9
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Nov-1

So..... I asked myself Is Swiss Skydiver as good as Zenyatta?

How you answer that determines where you put her on your ticket, or don't.  ;) 

One of my friends loves Tiz and Tom to win this.   For me, Tom may be too old, and Tiz has way over 0.84 cmp index on female side. 
 

You could just go for the "chalk ticket" by globeform ratings, in order:   Improbable/Tiz/Tom/Max

--------But of course, I'm not doing that.  :)  
 

I'll keep looking at Max, Global, and Improbable for now. 

Tacitus will be on my deeper exotic ticket somewhere.  79% ITM, horse always shows up. 
 

Tossing Higher Power.  Filly might get up for 4th if she runs here. 

 
 

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