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Robt. B Lewis at SA Saturday   Triple Crown

Started Jan-27 by princeofdoc; 413 views.
princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Jan-27

Surprisingly competitive race, including many on my watch list......let's see how Medina Spirit runs back after that closing 2nd to Life Is Good; I actually like the other Baffert horse more, Spielberg.  I just bet him at 110-1

I also like Wipe the Slate, expecting big things from him, also bet him in the futures at 135-1

Rombauer is interesting here, as is Hot Rod Charlie....even Roman Centurian has a shot.

Should be a good betting race!

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

Jan-28

Baffert & O'Neill have half the field & those 4 will likely be the top 4 betting choices.  

Taking a very quick look at the BRIS fundamentals: these entrants dominate the top 3 spots in every category...

...except for Rombauer who has the 3rd highest prime power #.  (competed in 2 Gr 1's in 2020), 2nd highest class rating & 3rd best speed at the distance.  Coming off the shelf - he did beat Spielberg over the track at the Bobby Lewis distance.  He has no early foot. 

Looks like a chalk fest, IMO.  Pass after a very quick 'cap.  :)

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Jan-28

I'm guessing that the favorite will be above 2-1, so not sure about chalk fest, Steve......I see 4 horses competitively bet, between 2-1 and 4-1, and most interestingly, at least to me, is Wipe the Slate in this spot, as he reunites the same connections as I'll Have Another, in the same race.  He may go off at 9-2.....I bet him at 135-1 at Circa for the Derby futures, so I'll be crossing my fingers!

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

Jan-28

Prince, strictly terminology.  When I say "chalk" I mean the most heavily bet horse(s) without reference to actual price.  So, 5-1 might be chalk if nothing is lower.

No big deal.  I do take your point that if the exacta is 2-1 over, say, 4-1 the payout is acceptable.

AFAIC, you are the maestro of the futures.  :)

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jan-30

The sleeper in this race pedigree wise and should be on the improve is Roman Centurian by
empire maker / Bernardini a closer who in his last MSW closing fractions were decent 

and is bred to go longer than 8.5 , if he hits the board here I suggest keeping on your derby possibles list.

I like to see Fappiano on both sides of a pedigree and this marriage has lots of reines Mares bred to

Top sires and should be a classic distance Runner if he has g1 talent.

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Jan-30

Agreed....wasn't on the futures list, so I requested they put him in Tuesday.  They listed him at 200-1, so I immediately put $45 on him :)

In reply toRe: msg 1
princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Jan-30

Sorry to see Rombauer scratch, I was curious to see if he would be competitive here....

In reply toRe: msg 5
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jan-30

Those 3 eyeball to eyeball . that's a test  worth 1 point to all 3.

The winner reminds me of the preps Silver Charm had with Free House

He came back like Silver Charm when he was on the lead.

Roman Centurian Showed he belongs imo. He will get better stretching out

The Winner has a lot of Heart, the other 2  weren't to shabby either.

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Jan-30

I agree.....very impressive.  I was watching the fractions too, and thought that these horses must not be too good, until I compared the times to the previous race for older horses, and realized how slow the track was playing, and literally nobody was able to come from behind!  Even more impressive going forward for Roman Centurian.....

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jan-30

I thought the eyeball to eyeball was more value the the time and the number will probably

be low ,and its only January and we will see who improves stretching out.

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