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BOL bro on the Derby this year ...
I like Sainthood a bit ....
I don't like EQ .... I have him 3rd or out of the money ....
So tell us why you dont' like EQ. Easy to toss that out w/no explanation. I see people toss out the "chalk" every time there's a big race.
Surely there are specific reasons you don't like him.
Only thing I like about him is that he's a model of consistency.
The touts must be "talkin up" Sainthood, since very few select brought him up 2 weeks ago...... I guess it was when they found out he could work on dirt? His races already showed that ability and was game as heck when he ran on dirt.
Tis better to have bet and lost..then to never have bet at all.
I was in transit for the 5th last leg. And I didn't Dutch my ticket knowingly the 4 runners I had paid well with the 2 fav gals out in 4th bymping up the tic. I wouldn't have Dutched a $40 horse. Yet the 5 pick/my 4 horses was substantial.
That feature had to KO 80 to 90 % of tics.
Yes Obesso in @ about 85/1.
Lookin at Lee was in then out then back in the KDY.
The current streak of favorites winning Derby goes back to Orb in 2013. He was followed by Cal Chrome, American Pharoah, Nyquist, Always Dreaming, and Justify. American Pharoah and Justify won the Triple Crown. Nyquist entered the Derby undefeated.
And fav Maximum Security won but DQed.
2012 I'll Have Another.
I think there was a streak where 20 favs didn't Win.
Past Derbs winners in top flight of 3 at 4 furlongs.
Think this crop will see 3 at 4fl have those 3 finish in top 4
Like American Pharoah
Like American Pharoah
thanks for posting that. I often don't watch enough ex KY Derbies.
I can't help this nagging feeling that EQ is Dormund.
Anyway, ever notice watching Pharoah from the back his butt goes really far upwards into the air when he runs, I think that was his "engine" which was very powerful. I think I'm going to start looking for that upward swing he had.
Morn Winter ...
I just like his female side of his pedigree ....
There a few things I don't like ..... his CMP Numbers
If EQ doesn't win that's a good thing for 'trapping' ticket construction
My/a ticket construction is not created to and in the hope that the favorite wins (like it did 7 consecutive times* +DQ) followed by chalked other M/Lers. And everybody (annual one shooter Derby player) and their brother and sister go to the window. Even triple crowners of late.. how easy is that.
There is a horseplay heckler in my area. He will talk out loud to be overheard putting down another strangers comments. Or disparage another who is identifying his horse by number as the race unfolds or closes.
So about construction; I'm watching and rooting say the 6, then the 12, then the 4 and 7 at the same time in a race.
So heckler thinks I'm changing out loud 'a / the winner. And he makes his comment aloud.
What he didn't know was that as the race evolved; and as longer odds runners improved position.. were providing a better Tri payoff.
So to those who would want to leave off EQ on ticket..have at it.
In a 20 horse field using 5 horse..have it
Any substantial tic requires good keys and trapping ability.
One can talk all day about yada and yada, dis & dat:
The number of combinations that are possible with 20 numbers is 1,048,575.
(d) enjoy the trip..life's and The Derby
DogsUp said...The number of combinations that are possible with 20 numbers is 1,048,575.
Many people play / gamble at all different kinds of things, yet they don't know much about the odds related to the game they are engaging in. .
In poker, for instance, a royal straight flush is around 0.000154% or 1 in 650,000.
I do agree that ticket construction is key, especially for the tri's.....I, too, will be keying EQ, but I will be doing so with HM. Thus EQ/HM with EQ/HM with about 9 horses.....and another EQ/HM, with 9, with EQ/HM.....as well as 9 with EQ/HM with EQ/HM.
So I'll need EQ and HM to both hit the board....and I think they will.
Supers are a little more complicated....and more expensive!