off to a bad start.  One of my picks for race 1 Market Cap fell out of the gate, lost rider.  
Hope the #1 beat hozier, I'll be good if that happens.   edit:  Yay!  it did happen

That's on paper as you know, 3rd time out doesn't guarantee a forward move.

To all..The third time cap axiom is. Third time back, third time on a drop 

In claiming price or class  

For sure.  Sometimes I like to take races and works together and try to get a feel for how the horse is feeling headed into a race.  I label the works slow, par, or fast.  For example, over 1:01 and over for a 5 furlong work is kind of slow, 1:00 to 1:01 is par, and under 1:00 is fast.  Of course some trainers always want to work them fast but you can kind of get a look at the big picture.

: ) Yawn, West Coaster just got up. Race 5.

Went to cigar shop. Guys pooled in $. Set up for booze and gars.

Outdoors.

I don't drink. Stay sharp.

DogsUp said...

The number of combinations that are possible with 20 numbers is 1,048,575. 

Winter said

Many people play / gamble at all different kinds of things, yet they don't know much about the odds related to the game they are engaging in.  .
In poker, for instance,  a royal straight flush is around 0.000154% or 1 in 650,000.   

Dogs Hoofnote

There is a difference in looking at the math though.

The math for the 20 horse field is exactly. And for one specific occurrence.

And...The more perfect the handicapping and understanding of the outcome; the gross number of possibilities factor could be diminished to having a Superfecta straight in a 20 horse field.

--------------

The poker number is an extrapolate of 650,000 separately occurrences / hands delt.

And for the sake of example let's say a casino opens its doors first day and there could be a royal straight flush or there is the possibility it could neher happen

That’s where Dogs Up’s diary comes in handy.

I watched the 2021 Derby to review why Essential Quality just couldn't get there. As Dogs watched the race again the colt seemed to be in the contentious zone but never delivered a knockout punch 

Jockey Luis Saez in the week preceding 2021 Derby was getting media criticism on his ride in 2019 aboard the 2019 DQ Maximum Security.

Dogs sees it as Saez just didn't want to engage EQ into close quarters and chances of revisiting his reputation of rough and careless riding. 

He'll be on his home track the Big Sandy and the long and wide track and small field size should put him at ease.

Derby DQ --Documentary

https://youtu.be/f-riQFAnhBU

2021 Derby

https://youtu.be/oNNlSdkjuqA

I think it was mostly the track.  Medina Spirit didn’t really run any better than he was capable of but there were plenty of others including Essential Quality that were capable of a lot more.