All good questions!  I agree with both Rob and Tex here......breeding and certainly, perhaps even more so, the change to the qualifications.  Those previous Derby's with speed folding and closers finishing to win included several who just couldn't qualify today.  As Tex noted, the new no-Lasix rule may change things, let's see.....and with 20 horse fields, it's very hard for a great closer to avoid all the backing up horses, as well as to win while running a much longer race.

This year should be interesting though, as which Baffert horse goes to the front?  All 3 of his top colts have won a prep from the front, but neither Medina Spirit, nor Concert Tour ran at the same speed as Life Is Good.  I have no doubt that his stable, though each owned separately, will have the advantage of pre-race instructions, and I can't help but think that Life will be let alone on the front end.  The only challenges at this point would come from Prevalence and Collaborate, assuming that each will qualify.....

We still have Greatest Honour, and Risk Taking, both of whom came from behind, but they may be too far back from a loose Life Is Good running the 3/4 in 10:20 or so.  Still a few more preps to see if another colt emerges, crossing fingers on a few utr's!

princeofdoc said...

I can't help but think that Life will be let alone on the front end

2 days after you posted that he was taken out of the race.  So he'll definitely be let alone.  :)  

TUrns out the chip surgery went very well, he might even make it to the Haskell this year. 

RAESFAN said...

Growing up I was a "whys" guy of epic proportions. My parents and teachers often pulled their hair out. I have this need to understand why certain things occur. Along those lines, I'm trying to understand why frontrunners have been doing particularly well in the 10f Kentucky Derby in recent years. Starting with California Chrome in 2014, no horse that crossed the line first in the Derby, was worse than 3rd at any point in the race. Before that, you have to go back to Smarty Jones in 2004.

Is it simply the Baffert effect, as most have come from his barn? Is it the breeding industry which has been incentivized by all that money for horses that can win the shorter races? Could it possibly something inadvertent that resulted from the changes in training methods? Horses are starting later and later, running fewer and fewer times. Closers do most of their running in the latter part of the race, so could the lighter racing affect the development of their foundation, relative to their frontrunning opponents that do a bit more heavy lifting throughout the course of a race, causing closers to have a diminished kick late? Remember when it became a thing that frontrunners began stealing Belmonts? Is this just a natural progression of the same trend? 

I had no useful thoughts on this formulated, other than what others have already said, but just wanted to give you PROPS for posing such a truly interesting and thoughtful contemplation of these issues.  

I think it is the kind of post that deserves it's own topic, actually.   Because I can see it having longevity, esp. as we enter the no lasix era and post covid racing era.  

That wasn’t the correct answer?

Every year the derby field is 3/4 E and E/P types.  Those are simply the types that do well enough in the qualifying races to get in.  That begs the question of why don’t more closer types win those preps.  I think it’s a combination of factors but to me the biggest factor is simply that it’s hard for them to get past the front runners in the shorter races so we never actually even see them in the derby.   I think also trainers will often take colts that maybe should be running a different style and turn them into stalkers in an effort to get in the starting gate.  The really good ones will get bred to fast mares and so it continues.

Hey bet. Hope all is well. Been a while. Yes I believe it was the correct answer. My picks have been horrible this prep season but I usually look for an upset. We are about due for another Giacamo or MTB year. Lets hope one of us gets it. Our local otb in Green Bay shut down which sucks big time but has saved me some cash :) Heading to the UP for the derby though. They just started horse racing bets and it is about an hour and a half from my home.

Hey North!  An hour and a half doesn’t sound too bad.  Might make it feel more like an event.  Believe it or not, it’s a pain to try to bet on the derby if you live in Louisville.  They turned the off track facility into some sort of casino and try to force everyone to go to CD to bet now.  I have a buddy that’s always going on Oaks Day though and he’s nice enough to place some bets for me if I can’t make it, which is almost always anymore.

I’m having that feeling too that we might be due for a big upset this year.  I was just looking at some charts (looking for closers lol) and it’s been 7 years (Orb) since the winner wasn’t within a head of the lead by the quarter pole, if they weren’t already in first.  

Giacomo won Derby and was named after rock star singer Sting's son.

What Travers winner was named after a beer ad slogan?

Regarding our conversation of finding a 2 yr old in sale. Seattle Slew as I mentioned elsewhere didn't look like much earlier as a baby. 

https://youtu.be/zwOImSrzmCg

Bambino Slew looked like a mule.

https://pin.it/1bviKzT