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Kentucky Derby 2021 DogsUp Diary   Triple Crown

Started 2/28/21 by DogsUp; 56115 views.
In reply toRe: msg 417

From: DogsUp


Hoofnote: The speed figures for Derby day also calculate into it a factor of the track variant.

The fact that the races that day; over a mile and quality Grade runners push the number upwards.

Also on fine track surface conditions, mother nature and track maintenance equipment, the variant will push up the number.

Yet...When it is a soupy track; the variant is still a factor for lifting the number upwards as other races with Graded runners are compared using the surface as a Delta or par as to the aggregate times on the surface.

And a thought that earlier races could be run on wet/drying surface and by 6:45 PM the 1st Saturday in May, the surface has dried and the maintenance crew has an hour and a half to spin some speed magic into the track with equipment and maybe aqua.

²Hoofnote: Maxfield is a free square Saturday, at...The Spa.

³ Dogs passed on betting/using the 5 win streak filly last Saturday. Dogs passed on The Haskell/Hot Rod Charlie.


  • Edited July 30, 2021 8:52 pm  by  DogsUp
In reply toRe: msg 418

From: DogsUp


Since 1992, 26 of 29 (89.6 percent) Kentucky Derby winners have entered the race with a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of at least 95. This number would be 27 out of 29 if Maximum Security had not been disqualified in the 2019 Kentucky Derby, gifting Country House with a victory.Apr 20, 2021

  • Edited August 3, 2021 3:33 pm  by  DogsUp
In reply toRe: msg 419

From: DogsUp


Favorites winless in the last 7 Jim Dandy. Dandies.

During that time, 5 winners of Triple Crown races have all been beaten in the 1 1/8-mile race that serves as the local stepping-stone to the Grade 1, $1.25 million Travers on Aug. 28. So the 80 - 20 rule says odds are good for EQ. Also super favs have exhausted the odds,by failing as in last Saturday 5 ror 5 Philly losing, Knicks Go went. And Hot Rod Charlie take down 

EQ faces colt 3yo-peers who just never ran a good race at the G1 level. 

1/2 is oddly the number el fresco. I say it to be $2.60 and South to $2.40. 

Avoid cave man tickets.

Buy -construct a full $2 (x number of picks in other legs ticket" The hard ten picks.

Then 50ty center with vigorish multiple horse in legs where using the potentials of a 7-1 or better sets your ticket compounding.

  • Edited August 3, 2021 3:56 pm  by  DogsUp

From: Oldbettowin


How many entrants a year on average have a Beyer 95 to their credit Dogs?

Msg 1621.422 deleted

From: DogsUp


1 Known Agenda 11-1   94   
2 Like the King 52-1 86
863 Brooklyn Strong 41-1 94
4 Keepmeinmind 47-1 92
5 Sainthood 37-1 84
6 O Besos 39-1 96
7 Mandaloun 29-1 98
8 Medina Spirit 12-1 99
9 Hot Rod Charlie 6-1 99
10 Midnight Bourbon 13-1 96
...[Message truncated]
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In reply toRe: msg 423

From: DogsUp


More about Beyer above later.


From: Oldbettowin


Sorry, I didn’t mean you had to list them.  I figured you would know that knew it was half the field :)


From: DogsUp


I wanted to elaborate:

The top Beyer 100 (9 panel PP)  for this Derby didn't have enough speed rating # nor a par time for the anticipated Derby at a mile an eighth pole come the running of the Derby. The 100 B was 17th in Derby beaten by and winner of horse running 2nd that day of the 100 mark. Santa Anita Derby.

About Beyers in general:

Horses coming from say Oaklawn - weather surface conditions, PID + Turfway plastic, GP West dull numbers would be "surface challenged".

Run Happy whose banner ads we proudly hail and now wave at race tracks won his first G1 at Spa at 7 fl. Coming from PID his Beyer was not the best of a spreadsheet, his actual time was very good...And good horses from PID typically move up in better times off excellent times there.

Track conditions do affect the rating. That comes to play in the single raw stand-alone Numbah. 

  • Edited August 2, 2021 1:25 pm  by  DogsUp